Game Analysis

Note: The over was released earlier in the week before Trevor Lawrence was officially upgraded to probable. The line has gone up and would only be a lean over 41 or more.

Strong Opinion – Over (40) – Jacksonville (-5.5) vs TENNESSEE

· The Jaguars need a win to clinch the AFC South and they will be eliminated from postseason contention with a loss.

· The urgency of the situation means will likely see Trevor Lawrence back on the field as well as an outside chance at Jacksonville WR Christian Kirk, who is gaining 2.18 yards per route run in the slot (6th) but has been out since week 14.

· Jaguars starting left tackle Cam Robinson suited up last week after missing a month of action. Jacksonville’s offensive line ranks 2nd in pass-blocking efficiency in the 7 weeks Robinson has gotten more than 15 snaps.

· I expect Lawrence to be kept clean as the Titans will be without interior defender Jeffery Simmons, who ranks 9th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Tennessee’s defense is allowing 0.33 EPA/target to tight ends (28th) and they will struggle versus TE Evan Engram, who has a 56% success rate (7th).

· The Titans’ offense is averaging 4.8 yppl this season (27th) but can thrive if the opposing defense can’t stop the run and plays zone coverage.

· Tennessee’s offense has the 5th-highest run play rate adjusted for the situation and the Jaguars rush defense ranks 27th by our numbers.

· The Titans offense is averaging 42% more yards per attempt against zone coverage compared to man this year (2nd-largest gap) and Ryan Tannehill has a favorable matchup versus Jacksonville’s defense with an 84.2% zone coverage rate (4th-highest).

· Our model favors the Jaguars by 7.2 with a predicted total of 44.2.

The Over is a Strong Opinion at 40.5 or less.