Jacksonville Jaguars @ Oakland Raiders Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Jacksonville (+6.5) over OAKLAND

Lean – Under (45.5)

Both of these teams are struggling, with the Jaguars off 5 consecutive losses, 5 consecutive spread losses and a 35 point home loss to the Chargers last week. Oakland, meanwhile, has played themselves out of realistic playoff contention with 3 straight losses (all spread losses). History suggest that Jacksonville will be the team that rallies with a better than expected performance, as the Jaguars apply to a 139-50-5 ATS bad team off a 20-plus point loss situation and a 46-10 ATS situation that plays on teams off 5 or more consecutive spread losses. Oakland, meanwhile, applies to a 42-100-2 ATS situation that plays against favorites that are playing poorly on the defensive side of the ball. That matchups have no bearing on my decision to side with Jacksonville here but here they are.

Raiders’ rookie RB Josh Jacobs leads the NFL forcing 0.28 missed tackles per rush and the rookie running back is likely to return to the lineup this week against Jacksonville’s last-rated rush defense. The Raiders have a league-leading 130 rushes up the middle where the Jaguars have been particularly vulnerable since losing interior defender Marcell Dareus. Abry Jones and Taven Bryan both rank outside the top 50 in run stop rate among interior defenders. The once vaunted Jacksonville defense has been a disaster without Jalen Ramsey, surrendering 6.4 yards per play, which ranks only ahead of the Bengals since week 4. The Jaguars only remaining strength is their 7th-rated pass rush win rate (49%) but they will be neutralized by Oakland’s offensive line ranked 3rd in pass blocking efficiency. Derek Carr will look to feature tight end Darren Waller, who is gaining 2.37 yards per route run (3rd).

The Raiders have surrendered a league-high 35 deep-ball receptions this season (no other defense has allowed more than 30) but I do not expect Jacksonville’s offense to take advantage. DJ Chark is likely to miss this game and our metrics have the wide receiver valued at 0.6 points. Chark is responsible for more than 30% of the Jaguars receiving yards and 26 of their total 56 targets with 20+ air yards. Maurice Hurst ranks 7th in pass rushing efficiency among interior defenders and he will wreak havoc across from right guard AJ Cann, who has conceded 29 pressures (9th-most). Gardner Minshew will have to get the ball out quickly to Dede Westbrook in a favorable matchup versus nickelback Lamarcus Joyner, who is allowing 1.35 yards per slot cover snap (6th-worst).

Josh Jacobs could have a career game if he is fully healthy. The Jaguars won’t be able to exploit Oakland’s weakness defending the deep ball without DJ Chark but could have some success throwing underneath. This will be the Raiders last game ever at The Black Hole but the situation is horrible and our model favors Oakland by just 4.7 points, with a predicted total of 43.6 points (with matchups that favor the under).

Team Stats
Game Log

Jaguars
Raiders

JAC

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 40.2 34.6
Succ Pass Plays 41.3% 48.5%
Sack Rate 6.4% 8.2%
Int Rate 1.4% 1.8%
Deep Pass Rate 16.6% 19.7%
Big Pass Yards 40.7% 48.4%
NYPP 6.1 7.1

Rush

Rush Plays 24.5 26.9
RB YPR 3.9 4.8
Stuff Rate 21.8% 22.5%
Succ Rush Plays 40.6% 50.7%
Big Rush Yards 48.3% 52.9%
Yards Per Rush 4.4 5.0

Game

All Snaps 64.8 61.5
Early Down Succ 43.1% 52.1%
Succ Rate 40.7% 49.2%
Big Yards Rate 44.1% 52.7%
Yards Per Play 5.4 6.2
Fumble Lost Rate 1.3% 0.9%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.8 28.4
Run Ratio 37.2% 43.9%
Starting Field Pos 25.7 30.3
Game Control -5.1 5.1

Points 17.7 25.9

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	KC	26 – 40 L	-11.7	52.9% / 58.8%	2.9% / 0.0%	3.0% / 0.0%	10.2 / 11.1	43.8% / 57.7%	12.5% / 26.9%	5.1 / 4.3	50 / 60	50.0% / 62.5%	50.0% / 58.3%	55.4% / 62.3%	8.6 / 8.2	2.0% / 0.0%	32.0% / 43.3%	23.8 / 38.4
2	@HOU	12 – 13 L	-3.3	40.5% / 36.4%	10.8% / 12.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.8 / 4.2	42.9% / 56.7%	14.3% / 16.7%	4.9 / 4.2	58 / 63	44.2% / 46.8%	41.4% / 46.0%	40.6% / 35.0%	4.8 / 4.2	1.7% / 0.0%	36.2% / 47.6%	26.0 / 26.8
3	TEN	20 – 7 W	13.0	43.3% / 30.6%	0.0% / 18.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.8 / 5.1	15.0% / 53.8%	45.0% / 19.2%	4.4 / 3.5	50 / 75	37.8% / 36.8%	32.0% / 38.7%	56.8% / 57.1%	5.8 / 4.5	0.0% / 1.3%	40.0% / 34.7%	25.7 / 28.9
4	@DEN	26 – 24 W	-5.0	36.8% / 52.6%	13.2% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.6%	4.9 / 8.0	50.0% / 43.8%	10.5% / 12.5%	7.1 / 4.3	76 / 54	45.9% / 54.8%	43.4% / 50.0%	52.1% / 52.3%	6.0 / 6.9	0.0% / 0.0%	50.0% / 29.6%	24.0 / 27.0
5	@CAR	27 – 34 L	-5.8	52.2% / 44.1%	4.3% / 8.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.8 / 4.7	45.2% / 55.6%	25.8% / 18.5%	4.8 / 10.6	77 / 61	50.8% / 54.2%	49.4% / 49.2%	57.8% / 63.8%	6.6 / 7.3	3.9% / 0.0%	40.3% / 44.3%	22.9 / 28.8
6	NO	6 – 13 L	-2.4	38.7% / 48.7%	6.5% / 7.7%	3.4% / 0.0%	4.9 / 5.7	25.0% / 65.4%	16.7% / 19.2%	3.1 / 4.0	55 / 65	35.0% / 62.0%	32.7% / 55.4%	35.8% / 36.5%	4.1 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	43.6% / 40.0%	18.1 / 32.1
7	@CIN	27 – 17 W	2.4	38.2% / 37.8%	5.9% / 4.4%	0.0% / 7.0%	7.2 / 5.7	52.3% / 30.0%	25.0% / 50.0%	4.9 / 1.7	78 / 65	53.4% / 34.0%	46.2% / 35.4%	66.7% / 53.6%	5.9 / 4.5	0.0% / 1.5%	56.4% / 30.8%	28.6 / 29.1
8	NYJ	29 – 15 W	8.5	50.0% / 44.7%	5.6% / 21.1%	0.0% / 10.0%	7.7 / 4.4	17.6% / 46.7%	44.1% / 26.7%	3.3 / 3.1	70 / 53	32.0% / 51.2%	34.3% / 45.3%	55.3% / 39.0%	5.6 / 4.0	1.4% / 0.0%	48.6% / 28.3%	36.9 / 26.5
9	HOU	3 – 26 L	-8.4	39.2% / 62.1%	7.8% / 3.4%	4.3% / 0.0%	5.5 / 6.7	60.0% / 50.0%	6.7% / 20.6%	4.9 / 6.4	66 / 63	47.2% / 58.8%	43.9% / 55.6%	35.4% / 42.0%	5.4 / 6.5	3.0% / 1.6%	22.7% / 54.0%	24.0 / 35.0
11	@IND	13 – 33 L	-7.1	42.9% / 40.7%	4.1% / 11.1%	2.1% / 4.2%	5.7 / 4.6	33.3% / 58.3%	33.3% / 8.3%	3.2 / 7.3	58 / 63	41.9% / 56.3%	41.4% / 50.8%	28.6% / 52.7%	5.3 / 6.2	0.0% / 1.6%	15.5% / 57.1%	30.3 / 24.0
12	@TEN	20 – 42 L	-12.2	43.1% / 73.7%	5.9% / 5.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.9 / 13.3	44.4% / 48.5%	7.4% / 18.2%	4.3 / 6.6	78 / 52	45.6% / 65.0%	43.6% / 57.7%	30.9% / 67.7%	4.7 / 9.1	1.3% / 3.8%	34.6% / 63.5%	23.0 / 32.6
13	TB	11 – 28 L	-16.8	23.9% / 43.2%	10.9% / 10.8%	4.9% / 0.0%	4.2 / 6.5	41.2% / 29.0%	29.4% / 45.2%	2.9 / 2.4	63 / 68	28.3% / 34.7%	28.6% / 36.8%	40.9% / 61.0%	3.8 / 4.6	3.2% / 1.5%	27.0% / 45.6%	28.7 / 37.4
14	LAC	10 – 45 L	-17.4	35.0% / 57.1%	5.0% / 3.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.1 / 11.8	56.5% / 63.3%	13.0% / 10.0%	3.8 / 6.5	63 / 58	47.7% / 60.4%	42.9% / 60.3%	17.1% / 62.7%	4.0 / 9.1	0.0% / 0.0%	36.5% / 51.7%	22.7 / 26.6

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	DEN	24 – 16 W	9.5	65.4% / 50.0%	0.0% / 8.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	10.0 / 7.3	46.4% / 52.2%	14.3% / 26.1%	3.5 / 4.1	54 / 57	51.3% / 52.3%	55.6% / 50.9%	40.3% / 58.1%	6.6 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	51.9% / 40.4%	29.0 / 21.8
2	KC	10 – 28 L	-8.3	46.3% / 56.5%	7.3% / 4.3%	5.3% / 0.0%	4.3 / 9.4	52.6% / 36.4%	26.3% / 36.4%	6.8 / 1.4	60 / 68	48.9% / 49.1%	48.3% / 50.0%	38.4% / 62.3%	5.1 / 6.8	0.0% / 1.5%	31.7% / 32.4%	25.3 / 26.2
3	@MIN	14 – 34 L	-15.9	52.6% / 47.6%	10.5% / 0.0%	2.9% / 0.0%	5.6 / 8.3	45.0% / 55.3%	15.0% / 7.9%	4.4 / 5.6	58 / 59	54.5% / 54.2%	50.0% / 52.5%	29.1% / 55.8%	5.2 / 6.5	0.0% / 0.0%	34.5% / 64.4%	22.3 / 28.4
4	@IND	31 – 24 W	10.8	43.8% / 34.8%	3.1% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.2%	5.9 / 5.8	46.9% / 47.8%	21.9% / 34.8%	5.9 / 3.5	64 / 69	46.0% / 36.7%	45.3% / 39.1%	38.5% / 45.7%	5.9 / 5.0	1.6% / 1.4%	50.0% / 33.3%	23.5 / 28.7
5	CHI	24 – 21 W	4.6	53.1% / 50.0%	0.0% / 11.8%	0.0% / 6.7%	7.2 / 5.7	64.1% / 41.2%	5.1% / 35.3%	4.3 / 2.5	71 / 51	61.4% / 50.0%	59.2% / 47.1%	28.1% / 27.1%	5.6 / 4.6	2.8% / 0.0%	54.9% / 33.3%	32.0 / 31.7
7	@GB	24 – 42 L	-10.0	67.7% / 68.8%	0.0% / 3.1%	3.2% / 0.0%	10.6 / 13.2	38.7% / 34.8%	16.1% / 21.7%	5.0 / 2.6	62 / 55	53.1% / 55.8%	53.2% / 54.5%	38.0% / 68.4%	7.8 / 8.7	1.6% / 0.0%	50.0% / 41.8%	29.3 / 16.6
8	@HOU	24 – 27 L	2.8	46.7% / 57.1%	0.0% / 7.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.5 / 6.1	56.5% / 43.8%	21.7% / 18.8%	4.0 / 4.1	53 / 74	53.7% / 54.4%	50.9% / 51.4%	56.1% / 36.6%	7.1 / 5.2	0.0% / 0.0%	43.4% / 43.2%	23.1 / 22.2
9	DET	31 – 24 W	1.9	53.1% / 51.2%	3.1% / 4.7%	0.0% / 2.4%	8.7 / 8.9	55.6% / 50.0%	8.3% / 35.0%	4.8 / 4.5	68 / 63	54.7% / 52.0%	54.4% / 50.8%	54.0% / 62.4%	6.6 / 7.5	0.0% / 1.6%	52.9% / 31.7%	23.7 / 28.6
10	LAC	26 – 24 W	4.0	47.1% / 41.7%	8.8% / 13.9%	0.0% / 9.7%	5.9 / 4.7	52.4% / 63.3%	23.8% / 16.7%	3.7 / 4.9	55 / 66	52.4% / 55.6%	49.1% / 51.5%	16.2% / 58.1%	5.1 / 4.8	0.0% / 0.0%	38.2% / 45.5%	33.0 / 25.2
11	CIN	17 – 10 W	1.9	50.0% / 22.2%	9.4% / 13.9%	3.4% / 3.2%	8.5 / 2.0	41.2% / 59.1%	23.5% / 9.1%	3.3 / 7.9	66 / 58	46.8% / 39.5%	45.5% / 36.2%	56.7% / 58.5%	5.8 / 4.2	1.5% / 1.7%	51.5% / 37.9%	30.7 / 26.4
12	@NYJ	3 – 34 L	-14.7	34.3% / 56.7%	2.9% / 3.3%	2.9% / 0.0%	4.0 / 10.4	31.8% / 43.3%	36.4% / 26.7%	3.1 / 2.9	57 / 60	35.0% / 53.2%	33.3% / 50.0%	12.5% / 60.3%	3.6 / 6.7	1.8% / 1.7%	38.6% / 50.0%	26.5 / 27.6
13	@KC	9 – 40 L	-18.8	56.3% / 43.3%	6.3% / 3.3%	6.7% / 0.0%	6.6 / 5.4	56.0% / 55.2%	32.0% / 34.5%	4.9 / 3.3	57 / 59	60.9% / 47.8%	56.1% / 49.2%	34.3% / 29.0%	5.8 / 4.4	1.8% / 0.0%	43.9% / 49.2%	21.4 / 36.1
14	TEN	21 – 42 L	-6.3	58.3% / 66.7%	5.6% / 0.0%	0.0% / 3.7%	7.2 / 14.5	58.3% / 62.5%	25.0% / 18.8%	4.0 / 5.0	60 / 59	63.3% / 63.8%	58.3% / 64.4%	38.5% / 64.9%	5.9 / 9.4	1.7% / 0.0%	40.0% / 54.2%	32.7 / 16.5

Jacksonville Jaguars @

Oakland Raiders

Sun, Dec 15

1:05 PM Pacific

Game Analysis