Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *New Orleans Team Total Over (20.5 -110)

Lean – NEW ORLEANS (-2) over Jacksonville

· Derek Carr sprained his AC joint in week 3 and it clearly affected him the following game as well. Carr had an inability to throw down the field and Alvin Kamara had 14 targets against the Buccaneers in week 4. Carr has averaged at least 9.5 air yards per attempt in his other four games this season and he will look deep plenty this week.

· The Jaguars are allowing 13.83 yards per cover snap when opponents target wide receivers on passes with 15+ air yards (25th) and they just lost starting cornerback Tyson Campbell. Jacksonville backup CB Montaric Brown is surrendering 5.1 more yards per target than Campbell and he will struggle across from New Orleans downfield threat WR Rashid Shaheed, who is averaging 0.58 EPA/target (12th).

· Saints wide receiver Chris Olave has 23 targets with 15+ air yards (2nd-most) and he will also get snaps against Brown as well as versus Jaguars nickelback Tre Herndon, who is allowing 1.48 yards per cover snap in the slot (4th-worst).

· New Orleans will be without both starting tackles on Thursday night but Carr won’t be as vulnerable as he would be against most defenses. The Jaguars have only a 29.4% pressure rate (29th).

· Jacksonville’s offensive line ranks 3rd in pass-blocking efficiency the last two weeks with starting LT Cam Robinson on the field after he served a four-game suspension to start the season. Robinson has conceded just 2 pressures in 2 games and he will shut down Saints edge defender Carl Granderson, who ranks 19th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Jaguars WR Christian Kirk is gaining 1.83 yards per route run in the slot (5th) and he has a favorable matchup on the inside against nickelback Alontae Taylor, who is surrendering 1.52 yards per cover snap in the slot (3rd-worst).

· New Orleans LB Demario Davis is banged up and might not be on the field in this game. Davis has conceded a league-low 30 yards into his coverage this season.

· Trevor Lawrence said that his left knee has improved rapidly and he’s optimistic he’ll be able to suit up for this game. He might be completely fine but we’ve adjusted Lawrence down 2 points in case the knee affects his mobility and throw power.

· Our model favors the Saints by 1.3 with a predicted total of 46.5 points, and New Orleans applies to a 431-282-17 ATS contrary indicator based on the disparate spread records of these two teams. That’s worth a Lean. If Lawrence doesn’t play then the model would favor the Saints by 4.2 points (with a total of 43.7 points) and if Lawrence is 100% (not likely) then the model would favor the Jags by 0.9 points with 47.9 total points.

The New Orleans Team Total Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 21 points or less.

Alternate play, if you don’t have Team Totals, is the game Over 40 (to 41)