Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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INDIANAPOLIS (-2.5) vs Jacksonville

Nick Foles will make his return under center for the Jaguars this week and we are adjusting the offense by about a point. For all of Gardner Minshew’s excitement, the 6th-round pick ended up finishing 5th-worst among full-time starters in completion percentage above expectation. Jacksonville’s offense is averaging less than 20 points per game in part because they were trying to protect their rookie quarterback by running the more than they should have (ranking 9th-lowest in adjusted pass-play rate). The Vikings ranked 3rd-highest in adjusted passing play rate under Jags’ offensive coordinator John DeFilippo before he was fired last year and I expect him to take the training wheels off with Foles behind center. We had Jacksonville’s offense expected to score 23 points per game in our priors with Foles at quarterback so the adjustment I’m making is on the conservative side.

Brian Hoyer threw 3 interceptions and gained just 4.8 yards per pass play against the Dolphins last week but the Colts will get Jacoby Brissett back on Sunday. However, TY Hilton’s status will definitely be worth monitoring. Indianapolis averages 6.5 yards per pass play with Hilton in uniform compared to just 5.3 yards per pass play in 3 games without him. Granted, one of the games he missed was last week with Hoyer at quarterback. Last season, the Colts were 0.3 yards per pass play worse in the 2 games without Hilton. Our metrics suggest four-time Pro Bowl wide receiver is worth 0.8 points. Indianapolis targets tight ends on 30.7% of passes (4th-highest), but Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle (questionable) will likely be limited by a Jaguars defense ranked 3rd against tight ends by our numbers. The Colts ground game ranks 6th and on the surface look set up well to dominate Jacksonville’s 25th-rated rush defense. However, Indianapolis has a clear tendency choosing to run left behind their top offensive linemen Anthony Castonzo and Quenton Nelson – running left on 31 more attempts than to the right. Running left would mean running into the strength of the Jaguars’ defense, as the edge defender on that side will be Yannick Ngakoue, who has a 10.4% run stop rate (4th).

Jacksonville’s offense should take a step forward with Nick Foles at the helm while the Colts offense could be in trouble if TY Hilton is unable to suit up again. Our model favors the Colts by just 0.3 points, with a predicted total of 45.2, points. I’d certainly lean with Jacksonville if the line gets to +3 or more but I’d stay away from the over due to a 743-533-16 Under situation that applies to this game.

Team Stats
Game Log

Jaguars
Colts

JAC

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 37.4 37.7
Succ Pass Plays 43.6% 46.2%
Sack Rate 6.3% 8.4%
Int Rate 1.2% 2.2%
Deep Pass Rate 17.2% 19.3%
Big Pass Yards 45.9% 45.5%
NYPP 6.6 6.2

Rush

Rush Plays 27.0 24.4
RB YPR 4.2 4.5
Stuff Rate 22.3% 23.4%
Succ Rush Plays 39.1% 51.1%
Big Rush Yards 56.9% 49.7%
Yards Per Rush 4.7 4.7

Game

All Snaps 64.4 62.1
Early Down Succ 44.0% 51.2%
Succ Rate 41.5% 48.2%
Big Yards Rate 50.7% 49.1%
Yards Per Play 5.9 5.7
Fumble Lost Rate 1.3% 0.5%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.3 27.7
Run Ratio 41.1% 39.2%
Starting Field Pos 25.6 30.3
Game Control -1.4 1.4

Points 19.6 21.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	KC	26 – 40 L	-11.7	52.9% / 58.8%	2.9% / 0.0%	3.0% / 0.0%	10.2 / 11.1	43.8% / 57.7%	12.5% / 26.9%	5.1 / 4.3	50 / 60	50.0% / 62.5%	50.0% / 58.3%	55.4% / 62.3%	8.6 / 8.2	2.0% / 0.0%	32.0% / 43.3%	23.8 / 38.4
2	@HOU	12 – 13 L	-3.3	40.5% / 36.4%	10.8% / 12.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.8 / 4.2	42.9% / 56.7%	14.3% / 16.7%	4.9 / 4.2	58 / 63	44.2% / 46.8%	41.4% / 46.0%	40.6% / 35.0%	4.8 / 4.2	1.7% / 0.0%	36.2% / 47.6%	26.0 / 26.8
3	TEN	20 – 7 W	13.0	43.3% / 30.6%	0.0% / 18.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.8 / 5.1	15.0% / 53.8%	45.0% / 19.2%	4.4 / 3.5	50 / 75	37.8% / 36.8%	32.0% / 38.7%	56.8% / 57.1%	5.8 / 4.5	0.0% / 1.3%	40.0% / 34.7%	25.7 / 28.9
4	@DEN	26 – 24 W	-5.0	36.8% / 52.6%	13.2% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.6%	4.9 / 8.0	50.0% / 43.8%	10.5% / 12.5%	7.1 / 4.3	76 / 54	45.9% / 54.8%	43.4% / 50.0%	52.1% / 52.3%	6.0 / 6.9	0.0% / 0.0%	50.0% / 29.6%	24.0 / 27.0
5	@CAR	27 – 34 L	-5.8	52.2% / 44.1%	4.3% / 8.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.8 / 4.7	45.2% / 55.6%	25.8% / 18.5%	4.8 / 10.6	77 / 61	50.8% / 54.2%	49.4% / 49.2%	57.8% / 63.8%	6.6 / 7.3	3.9% / 0.0%	40.3% / 44.3%	22.9 / 28.8
6	NO	6 – 13 L	-2.4	38.7% / 48.7%	6.5% / 7.7%	3.4% / 0.0%	4.9 / 5.7	25.0% / 65.4%	16.7% / 19.2%	3.1 / 4.0	55 / 65	35.0% / 62.0%	32.7% / 55.4%	35.8% / 36.5%	4.1 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	43.6% / 40.0%	18.1 / 32.1
7	@CIN	27 – 17 W	2.4	38.2% / 37.8%	5.9% / 4.4%	0.0% / 7.0%	7.2 / 5.7	52.3% / 30.0%	25.0% / 50.0%	4.9 / 1.7	78 / 65	53.4% / 34.0%	46.2% / 35.4%	66.7% / 53.6%	5.9 / 4.5	0.0% / 1.5%	56.4% / 30.8%	28.6 / 29.1
8	NYJ	29 – 15 W	8.5	50.0% / 44.7%	5.6% / 21.1%	0.0% / 10.0%	7.7 / 4.4	17.6% / 46.7%	44.1% / 26.7%	3.3 / 3.1	70 / 53	32.0% / 51.2%	34.3% / 45.3%	55.3% / 39.0%	5.6 / 4.0	1.4% / 0.0%	48.6% / 28.3%	36.9 / 26.5
9	HOU	3 – 26 L	-8.4	39.2% / 62.1%	7.8% / 3.4%	4.3% / 0.0%	5.5 / 6.7	60.0% / 50.0%	6.7% / 20.6%	4.9 / 6.4	66 / 63	47.2% / 58.8%	43.9% / 55.6%	35.4% / 42.0%	5.4 / 6.5	3.0% / 1.6%	22.7% / 54.0%	24.0 / 35.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@LAC	24 – 30 L	-6.2	44.8% / 52.6%	6.9% / 10.5%	0.0% / 2.9%	6.0 / 8.2	66.7% / 57.1%	15.2% / 23.8%	6.2 / 6.0	62 / 59	56.3% / 52.1%	56.5% / 54.2%	38.0% / 57.9%	6.1 / 7.4	0.0% / 1.7%	53.2% / 35.6%	26.4 / 30.0
2	@TEN	19 – 17 W	1.3	45.2% / 37.5%	9.7% / 12.5%	3.6% / 0.0%	3.9 / 3.7	47.1% / 50.0%	29.4% / 20.8%	4.9 / 5.1	65 / 56	45.8% / 52.3%	46.2% / 42.9%	27.8% / 38.4%	4.4 / 4.3	1.5% / 0.0%	52.3% / 42.9%	26.5 / 31.5
3	ATL	27 – 24 W	8.1	60.5% / 61.8%	2.6% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.9%	7.9 / 8.9	41.7% / 50.0%	33.3% / 25.0%	3.3 / 4.7	62 / 54	53.8% / 53.5%	53.2% / 57.4%	34.6% / 35.0%	6.1 / 7.4	0.0% / 0.0%	38.7% / 37.0%	20.9 / 24.0
4	OAK	24 – 31 L	-10.8	34.8% / 43.8%	0.0% / 3.1%	2.2% / 0.0%	5.8 / 5.9	47.8% / 46.9%	34.8% / 21.9%	3.5 / 5.9	69 / 64	36.7% / 46.0%	39.1% / 45.3%	45.7% / 38.5%	5.0 / 5.9	1.4% / 1.6%	33.3% / 50.0%	28.7 / 23.5
5	@KC	19 – 13 W	1.9	48.3% / 39.5%	0.0% / 9.3%	3.4% / 0.0%	5.2 / 6.7	68.9% / 42.9%	11.1% / 35.7%	4.0 / 2.6	74 / 57	67.9% / 42.9%	60.8% / 40.4%	22.4% / 53.1%	4.5 / 5.7	0.0% / 1.8%	60.8% / 24.6%	32.0 / 25.1
7	HOU	30 – 23 W	6.0	46.3% / 54.1%	2.4% / 8.1%	0.0% / 5.9%	7.8 / 7.9	26.9% / 50.0%	38.5% / 33.3%	2.4 / 4.2	67 / 61	37.5% / 58.7%	38.8% / 52.5%	42.0% / 40.4%	5.7 / 6.4	1.5% / 0.0%	38.8% / 39.3%	25.9 / 31.7
8	DEN	15 – 13 W	-2.8	44.8% / 28.6%	13.8% / 8.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.6 / 4.7	58.1% / 50.0%	29.0% / 21.4%	4.1 / 4.0	60 / 63	57.4% / 43.1%	51.7% / 38.1%	32.7% / 39.4%	5.3 / 4.4	1.7% / 0.0%	51.7% / 44.4%	21.9 / 28.9
9	@PIT	24 – 26 L	0.9	44.4% / 38.9%	13.9% / 2.8%	3.2% / 2.9%	5.3 / 5.1	51.7% / 32.0%	24.1% / 36.0%	4.8 / 3.6	65 / 61	50.0% / 37.8%	47.7% / 36.1%	28.7% / 31.1%	5.0 / 4.5	3.1% / 1.6%	44.6% / 41.0%	35.8 / 30.2
10	MIA	12 – 16 L	-4.1	37.5% / 36.1%	2.5% / 8.3%	7.7% / 3.0%	4.8 / 4.4	41.4% / 26.9%	31.0% / 38.5%	3.8 / 2.7	69 / 62	41.5% / 30.2%	39.1% / 32.3%	55.0% / 22.7%	4.3 / 3.7	0.0% / 1.6%	42.0% / 41.9%	32.5 / 33.4

Jacksonville Jaguars @

Indianapolis Colts

Sun, Nov 17

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis