Game Analysis

Jacksonville (-1.5) vs HOUSTON

· Trevor Lawrence had a season-high 9.5 air yards per attempt last week and Jacksonville’s offense scored 34 points. However, Lawrence might not have as many clean pockets this Sunday to continue throwing downfield.

· Texans edge rusher Will Anderson had 7 pressures against Cardinals’ rookie RT Paris Johnson last week and Anderson will line up across from another rookie RT Anton Harrison in this game.

· Lawrence could be forced into taking the underneath passes with Houston linebacker Denzel Perryman out one more game with a suspension. The Texans are allowing a 46% pass success rate to running backs (25th) and RB Travis Etienne is averaging 0.18 EPA/target (8th).

· The Jaguars will likely get starting cornerback Tyson Campbell back on the field this week to contain WR Nico Collins, who has forced 13 missed tackles (3rd) and is averaging 0.46 EPA/target (5th).

· Houston TE Dalton Schultz is averaging 0.34 EPA/target (4th) but he will struggle as Jacksonville’s defense is conceding a 46% success rate to tight ends (6th).

· CJ Stroud will look elsewhere to WR Tank Dell with pocket protection. Texans Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil will limit edge defender Josh Allen, who ranks 4th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Our model favors the Jaguars by 2.3 with a predicted total of 50.6 points. While the model sees some value on the over, this game applies to an 818-620-17 Under situation.