Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – First Half Over (25.5) – Jacksonville (+1.5/pk) over DETROIT

· This game was being priced as if the Lions are only slightly worse than the Jaguars after accounting for roughly 2 points of home field and extra rest.

· Jacksonville has a 46.8% success rate on offense (7th) and Detroit’s offense has a 45.0% success rate (16th).

· The Jaguars’ defense is allowing 0.030 EPA/play (20th) and the Lions are surrendering a league-high 0.123 EPA/play.

· Jacksonville is -0.1 in net yards per play and Detroit is -0.5 in net yppl. There is a clear gap between these teams and the Lions did not deserve to be favored.

· Trevor Lawrence is really starting to grasp Doug Pederson’s offense and the young QB has a 53.4% success rate since the start of November.

· Jaguars WR Christian Kirk has a 59% success rate (13th) and he will be superior on the inside as Will Harris is allowing 1.63 yards per cover snap in the slot since taking over as the Detroit starting nickelback in week 8.

· Zay Jones has become a reliable second receiving option for Lawrence with 145 yards last week. Jones will be incorporated in the game plan again picking on Lions backup CB Jerry Jacobs, who has targeted 13 times on Thanksgiving.

· It doesn’t look like WR Jameson Williams will make his Detroit debut this week so we should get another heavy dose of WR Amon-Ra St Brown, who had 129 scrimmage yards last week. St Brown is gaining 1.98 yards per route run in the slot (8th).

· Our model favors the Jaguars by 4.6 with a predicted total of 55.3.

· Given 25 is a dead number for first half totals and 51 is a key number for full game totals, it is better to take the first half over.

The First Half Over 26 or less is a Strong Opinion and Jacksonville was part of a 3-Star Best Bet 6-point teaser play with the Raiders (which no longer qualifies with Jacksonville down to pick).