Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Jacksonville (-3.5) vs CINCINNATI

This would be an excellent week for AJ Green to make his season debut after the Jaguars just traded Pro Bowl cornerback Jalen Ramsey but the Bengals’ star wide receiver is most likely still out. Tre Herndon is surrendering 1.57 yards per cover snap (11th-worst) filling in for Ramsey and Green could provide some hope for Andy Dalton, especially with left tackle Cordy Glenn also expected to make his season debut. Backup tackle Andre Smith ranked 4th-worst in pass blocking efficiency and would’ve struggled to contain edge rusher Yannick Ngakoue. DJ Hayden is conceding only 0.63 yards per slot cover snap and the nickelback should limit Tyler Boyd, who is gaining 1.80 yards per route run in the slot (6th). Calais Campbell ranks 1st in pass rushing efficiency among interior defenders and he will wreak havoc on a Bengal interior line that has allowed 8 sacks. The Bengals rank last in rush efficiency despite Joe Mixon facing a league-low 4% 8-man box rate.

DJ Chark is Garnder Minshew’s favorite target and has added 38.2 points this season (3rd) according to our metrics after gaining just 174 yards in 2018. Chark should continue his excellent campaign this week against a Cincinnati secondary without top cornerbacks William Jackson and Dre Kirkpatrick, although it looks like they may get Darqueze Dennard back on the field. Geno Atkins ranks 5th in pass rushing efficiency among interior defenders and he will cause problems for terrible guard tandem AJ Cann and Will Richardson. The Bengals rush defense ranks last so we could see a rare productive outing from Jaguars’ horrible running back Leonard Fournette.

Our model favors the Jaguars by 4.7 with a predicted total of 44.4 with Green out for Cincy but the Bengals apply to a 90-41-1 ATS underdog off of 5 or more losses situation. If Green gets upgraded to playing then I’d lean slightly with Cincinnati at +3.5 based on the favorable contrary situation.

Team Stats
Game Log

Jaguars
Bengals

JAC

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 36.0 37.8
Succ Pass Plays 44.1% 45.2%
Sack Rate 6.3% 7.8%
Int Rate 1.1% 0.4%
Deep Pass Rate 18.0% 21.4%
Big Pass Yards 43.5% 49.4%
NYPP 6.6 6.5

Rush

Rush Plays 25.0 25.2
RB YPR 4.5 5.1
Stuff Rate 20.8% 18.8%
Succ Rush Plays 37.0% 55.5%
Big Rush Yards 56.6% 45.7%
Yards Per Rush 4.9 5.1

Game

All Snaps 61.0 63.0
Early Down Succ 44.0% 52.8%
Succ Rate 41.5% 49.6%
Big Yards Rate 49.8% 51.2%
Yards Per Play 6.0 6.0
Fumble Lost Rate 1.3% 0.2%
Time Per Play (sec) 30.1 28.1
Run Ratio 40.4% 39.9%
Starting Field Pos 23.4 30.3
Game Control -2.5 2.5

Points 19.5 21.8

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	KC	26 – 40 L	-11.7	52.9% / 58.8%	2.9% / 0.0%	3.0% / 0.0%	10.2 / 11.1	43.8% / 57.7%	12.5% / 26.9%	5.1 / 4.3	50 / 60	50.0% / 62.5%	50.0% / 58.3%	55.4% / 62.3%	8.6 / 8.2	2.0% / 0.0%	32.0% / 43.3%	23.8 / 38.4
2	@HOU	12 – 13 L	-3.3	40.5% / 36.4%	10.8% / 12.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.8 / 4.2	42.9% / 56.7%	14.3% / 16.7%	4.9 / 4.2	58 / 63	44.2% / 46.8%	41.4% / 46.0%	40.6% / 35.0%	4.8 / 4.2	1.7% / 0.0%	36.2% / 47.6%	26.0 / 26.8
3	TEN	20 – 7 W	13.0	43.3% / 30.6%	0.0% / 18.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.8 / 5.1	15.0% / 53.8%	45.0% / 19.2%	4.4 / 3.5	50 / 75	37.8% / 36.8%	32.0% / 38.7%	56.8% / 57.1%	5.8 / 4.5	0.0% / 1.3%	40.0% / 34.7%	25.7 / 28.9
4	@DEN	26 – 24 W	-5.0	36.8% / 52.6%	13.2% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.6%	4.9 / 8.0	50.0% / 43.8%	10.5% / 12.5%	7.1 / 4.3	76 / 54	45.9% / 54.8%	43.4% / 50.0%	52.1% / 52.3%	6.0 / 6.9	0.0% / 0.0%	50.0% / 29.6%	24.0 / 27.0
5	@CAR	27 – 34 L	-5.8	52.2% / 44.1%	4.3% / 8.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.8 / 4.7	45.2% / 55.6%	25.8% / 18.5%	4.8 / 10.6	77 / 61	50.8% / 54.2%	49.4% / 49.2%	57.8% / 63.8%	6.6 / 7.3	3.9% / 0.0%	40.3% / 44.3%	22.9 / 28.8
6	NO	6 – 13 L	-2.4	38.7% / 48.7%	6.5% / 7.7%	3.4% / 0.0%	4.9 / 5.7	25.0% / 65.4%	16.7% / 19.2%	3.1 / 4.0	55 / 65	35.0% / 62.0%	32.7% / 55.4%	35.8% / 36.5%	4.1 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	43.6% / 40.0%	18.1 / 32.1

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@SEA	20 – 21 L	0.8	46.4% / 37.5%	8.9% / 16.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.1 / 6.7	21.4% / 36.0%	35.7% / 28.0%	2.4 / 2.9	70 / 49	42.6% / 40.0%	41.4% / 36.7%	49.9% / 61.4%	6.1 / 4.8	4.3% / 2.0%	20.0% / 51.0%	27.8 / 31.0
2	SF	17 – 41 L	-16.7	37.0% / 65.4%	8.7% / 0.0%	2.4% / 3.8%	6.3 / 12.0	31.6% / 64.3%	52.6% / 9.5%	1.3 / 6.2	65 / 68	30.4% / 68.4%	35.4% / 64.7%	53.2% / 63.1%	4.9 / 8.4	0.0% / 0.0%	29.2% / 61.8%	25.6 / 29.6
3	@BUF	17 – 21 L	-6.7	44.7% / 45.9%	5.3% / 2.7%	5.6% / 2.8%	6.3 / 6.5	36.8% / 55.6%	31.6% / 19.4%	3.5 / 4.9	57 / 73	46.7% / 55.2%	42.1% / 50.7%	52.9% / 40.6%	5.4 / 5.7	3.5% / 1.4%	33.3% / 49.3%	30.5 / 29.6
4	@PIT	3 – 27 L	-10.4	24.4% / 71.0%	17.8% / 0.0%	2.7% / 0.0%	2.3 / 8.4	57.9% / 36.0%	21.1% / 40.0%	3.8 / 2.6	64 / 56	36.2% / 63.6%	34.4% / 55.4%	21.7% / 39.9%	2.7 / 5.8	1.6% / 1.8%	29.7% / 44.6%	30.3 / 32.9
5	ARI	23 – 26 L	-4.5	53.8% / 45.5%	2.6% / 3.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.7 / 7.5	65.2% / 57.9%	30.4% / 13.2%	4.7 / 7.0	62 / 71	63.3% / 53.6%	58.1% / 52.1%	31.6% / 53.5%	6.0 / 7.2	0.0% / 0.0%	37.1% / 53.5%	25.0 / 27.6
6	@BAL	17 – 23 L	-7.4	43.9% / 55.9%	4.9% / 2.9%	2.6% / 0.0%	5.3 / 6.7	21.4% / 58.1%	42.9% / 18.6%	2.4 / 6.3	55 / 77	36.4% / 59.3%	38.2% / 57.1%	44.8% / 45.1%	4.5 / 6.5	0.0% / 1.3%	25.5% / 55.8%	27.3 / 25.5

Jacksonville Jaguars @

Cincinnati Bengals

Sun, Oct 20

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis