Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – 6.5-point Teaser (-130) – Tennessee (+7.5) with Jacksonville (-2)

Note: Tennessee can be considered a 1-Star Best Bet with the Teaser now out of range

TENNESSEE (+1) over Indianapolis

· Tennessee’s offense averaged 6.0 yppl versus Indianapolis in week 5 due to a favorable matchup against their division foe. The Colts’ defense has only a 30.6% pressure rate (30th) and can’t full advantage of the Titans’ shaky offensive line.

· Tennessee’s yards per attempt versus zone is 27% more than their yards per attempt against man coverage (7th-largest gap) and Indianapolis has a league-high 91.2% zone coverage rate.

· Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins is averaging 2.28 yards per route run (12th) and Will Levis will find him downfield when he’s lined up across from backup CB Darrell Baker, who is allowing 1.47 yards per cover snap (12th-worst).

· The Colts have surrendered a 43.9% rush success rate (30th) and I expect Tennessee’s offense to pound the rock with RB Derrick Henry, which will also open up the downfield throws on play-action.

· Indianapolis running back Jonathan Taylor led the NFL with 4 carries of at least 10 yards last week, but he had thumb surgery on Wednesday and is out. The Colts ground game will struggle without Taylor against a Titans defense conceding only a 35.6% rush success rate (7th).

· Gardner Minshew will not have clean pockets to work from if starting center Ryan Kelly is out again dealing with his second concussion of the 2023 season. Tennessee interior defender Jeffery Simmons has 44 pressures (5th).

· Our model favors Tennessee by 0.9 points, with a predicted total of 41.7 points, and while there is no line value on the Titans they do apply to a 148-60-6 ATS contrary situation that is based on how poorly their offense has played recently.

If the teaser Best Bet no longer qualifies (only good at +7.5 and -2.5 or better) then Tennessee can be played for a 1-Star Best Bet.