Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – TENNESSEE (-7) over Indianapolis

It looks like Marcus Mariota will play in this game and he will have a good matchup in his return. The Indianapolis pass defense ranks 30th in my numbers despite facing only one above average passing offense so far (Rams). The Titans averaged just 2.6 yppp on 50 pass plays with Matt Cassel under center this season, which is dreadful and far below the better than average 7.0 yppp that Mariota has averaged. I expect the Titans’ offense to get back on track Monday night against a horrible Colts’ secondary that gives up too many big plays and has allowed 7.5 yppp so far this season. It’s worth noting Mariota’s running ability may be limited in this game – however, my metrics show he has only added 0.1 points per game with his scrambles. Tennessee went just 2 for 13 on 3rd down last week dropping their season 3rd down conversion rate to 34% but I expect their offense to improve on 3rd downs moving forward with Mariota returning.

The Titans have struggled on defense this year with my metrics ranking them 24th. However, I expect that unit to get back on track against a Colts offense that is averaging just 4.8 yards per play. The Colts’ coaching staff obviously doesn’t trust backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett to throw the ball too often as Indy is 5th the league in run play percentage this season despite averaging a poor 3.4 yards per carry (29^th). Brissett actually hasn’t been bad, as he’s averaged a decent 6.5 yppp with just 3 interceptions thrown on 127 pass attempts, so it would behoove the Colts to try throwing the ball more often than they have been – especially in this game against a Tennessee defense that has been poor in pass defense but ranks in the top-10 defending the run. The Titans have allowed 28.4 points per game but their defense has been unlucky to allow opponent’s touchdowns on 74% of redzone opportunities this season, which is certainly going to regress towards the mean given that no defense has been worse than that in the last 5 seasons and overall the Titans are pretty solid defensively (just 5.2 yppl allowed).

My model favors Tennessee as a play here but the Titans do apply to a 2-31 ATS subset of a 34-98-2 ATS situation and it’s certainly plausible that Mariota may not make it through the entire game with his tender hamstring. I’ll just lean with the Titans minus the points.

Football Best Bets 37-21 This Season

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My College Football has been profitable for years (55% winners since 1999 for +230.6 Stars of profit) and the NFL Best Bets are now 107-75 (59%) using the new NFL play-by-play model introduced last season, including 72-31 (70%) on sides.

I have 4-Week and full season subscription packages available and you can view all Best Bet subscription packages by viewing the Best Bets page. I will also have one-week passes available for this next week’s Football Best Bets available on Wednesday (possibly Thursday in the NFL).

Team Stats
Game Log

Colts
Titans

IND

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 32.6 39.2
Succ Pass Plays 37.0% 49.2%
Sack Rate 11.4% 6.0%
Int Rate 3.7% 3.4%
Deep Pass Rate 19.1% 25.1%
Big Pass Yards 53.0% 59.2%
NYPP 6.3 7.9

Rush

Rush Plays 30.6 28.4
RB YPR 3.1 3.7
Stuff Rate 26.1% 21.8%
Succ Rush Plays 35.6% 37.7%
Big Rush Yards 41.7% 38.3%
Yards Per Rush 3.3 3.8

Game

All Snaps 63.2 67.6
Early Down Succ 36.8% 44.0%
Succ Rate 36.2% 42.8%
Big Yards Rate 49.9% 55.0%
Yards Per Play 4.7 5.9
Fumble Lost Rate 1.1% 0.3%
Time Per Play (sec) 30.0 27.2
Run Ratio 48.5% 42.2%
Starting Field Pos 26.9 26.4
Game Control -1.9 1.9

Points 19.4 31.8

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@LA	9 – 46 L	-21.3	28.0% / 54.8%	16.0% / 3.2%	9.5% / 0.0%	6.0 / 10.0	32.0% / 22.5%	28.0% / 22.5%	3.0 / 1.7	50 / 71	40.5% / 43.5%	30.0% / 36.6%	81.4% / 52.7%	4.5 / 5.3	2.0% / 1.4%	50.0% / 56.3%	23.1 / 35.8
2	ARI	13 – 16 L	6.3	41.5% / 40.0%	9.8% / 10.0%	2.7% / 2.8%	4.6 / 7.7	34.5% / 34.6%	24.1% / 11.5%	2.6 / 3.2	70 / 66	36.5% / 39.6%	38.6% / 37.9%	16.5% / 63.6%	3.8 / 5.9	0.0% / 0.0%	41.4% / 39.4%	24.5 / 29.6
3	CLE	31 – 28 W	9.2	33.3% / 35.4%	11.1% / 2.1%	0.0% / 6.4%	9.0 / 4.9	27.0% / 57.1%	37.8% / 19.0%	2.5 / 5.3	64 / 69	24.4% / 42.9%	29.7% / 42.0%	63.7% / 53.8%	5.3 / 5.0	1.6% / 0.0%	57.8% / 30.4%	29.6 / 28.9
4	@SEA	18 – 46 L	-7.0	37.5% / 65.5%	9.4% / 10.3%	3.4% / 7.7%	4.3 / 9.8	52.0% / 42.4%	8.0% / 24.2%	3.9 / 5.9	57 / 62	44.2% / 47.8%	43.9% / 53.2%	30.0% / 67.7%	4.2 / 7.7	1.8% / 0.0%	43.9% / 53.2%	28.3 / 20.2
5	SF	26 – 23 W	3.3	44.7% / 50.0%	10.5% / 4.2%	2.9% / 0.0%	7.6 / 7.0	32.4% / 31.8%	32.4% / 31.8%	4.4 / 3.0	75 / 70	38.2% / 46.3%	38.7% / 44.3%	58.1% / 37.3%	6.0 / 5.7	0.0% / 0.0%	49.3% / 31.4%	28.8 / 17.5

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	OAK	16 – 26 L	-4.4	50.0% / 55.9%	2.4% / 5.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.1 / 7.4	42.9% / 50.0%	28.6% / 16.7%	4.5 / 3.7	63 / 64	46.9% / 57.1%	47.6% / 53.1%	33.1% / 26.7%	5.6 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	33.3% / 46.9%	22.4 / 29.3
2	@JAC	37 – 16 W	7.9	42.9% / 41.7%	3.6% / 5.6%	3.7% / 5.9%	7.5 / 5.9	68.4% / 64.0%	10.5% / 12.0%	4.8 / 4.0	66 / 61	64.0% / 52.1%	57.6% / 50.8%	41.6% / 23.5%	5.9 / 5.1	0.0% / 1.6%	57.6% / 41.0%	39.9 / 23.4
3	SEA	33 – 27 W	4.9	51.6% / 50.0%	0.0% / 2.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.3 / 7.3	44.4% / 40.9%	22.2% / 31.8%	5.4 / 3.1	67 / 72	54.9% / 51.8%	47.8% / 47.2%	44.9% / 38.8%	6.3 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	53.7% / 30.6%	29.6 / 23.3
4	@HOU	14 – 57 L	-20.6	40.9% / 58.3%	9.1% / 5.6%	20.0% / 2.9%	5.0 / 7.6	35.0% / 50.0%	15.0% / 14.3%	4.4 / 4.1	42 / 78	43.8% / 53.8%	38.1% / 53.8%	52.6% / 28.5%	4.7 / 5.7	2.4% / 0.0%	47.6% / 53.8%	21.9 / 38.0
5	@MIA	10 – 16 L	-4.2	36.8% / 25.0%	15.8% / 3.6%	0.0% / 3.7%	3.1 / 2.8	30.0% / 43.8%	45.0% / 28.1%	3.5 / 3.2	58 / 60	40.0% / 37.2%	34.5% / 35.0%	19.1% / 6.1%	3.2 / 3.0	3.4% / 1.7%	34.5% / 53.3%	25.1 / 27.0

Indianapolis Colts @

Tennessee Titans

Mon, Oct 16

5:30 PM Pacific

Game Analysis

Football Best Bets 37-21 This Season