Game Analysis

Indianapolis (-4) vs JACKSONVILLE

· Indianapolis scored just 20 points but they had 517 yards of offense in Matt Ryan’s debut for the team. The Colts managed just two field goals on drives to the Texans 27, 2, 22, 42, 40, 4, and 24 yard lines and Ryan had two touchdowns dropped. We are not concerned after last week’s game and this offense is firmly above average.

· The Indianapolis running backs had 13 targets in week 1 (4th-most). I expect Ryan to continue finding Nyheim Hines and Jonathan Taylor out of the backfield in this matchup. The Jaguars surrendered 92 receiving yards to Washington’s running backs last week. 

· Trevor Lawrence’s 10.6 average depth of target ranked second among starting quarterbacks in week 1 after ranking around average in 2021. It is clear new head coach Doug Pederson wants his second year QB to look downfield.

· Christian Kirk shined in his debut for Jacksonville with 117 yards and 90% of his routes came in the slot. Pro Bowl nickelback Kenny Moore will make it harder for Kirk on the inside this week.

· Jaguars rookie center Luke Fortner ranked 31st in pass blocking efficiency and it will be another difficult matchup versus Colts DT DeForest Buckner, who 49 pressures last season (9th).

· Jacksonville RT Jawaan Taylor did not allow a single pressure in Washington, but he is unlikely to hold up in the same way this Sunday against edge defender Kwity Paye, who 11th in pass rushing efficiency last week.

· Our model has the Colts by 2.2 with a predicted total of 45.0.