Game Analysis

Lean – CINCINNATI (pick) over Indianapolis

· Jake Browning averaged 8.8 yppp last game and he showed off his downfield accuracy by completing all 7 attempts with 10+ air yards versus the Jaguars.

· Cincinnati’s offense had a 52.1% success rate last Monday night, which ranked 3rd among week 13 offenses. We don’t expect Browning to repeat that performance but he’s likely better than previously thought.

· Colts CB Jaylon Jones is conceding 0.82 yards per cover snap (16th) but other starting cornerback JuJu Brents will likely be out again, leaving 3rd string CB Darrell Baker to line up across from WR Tee Higgins or WR Ja’Marr Chase, who is averaging 0.47 EPA/target (7th). Baker has allowed 1.48 yards per cover snap (8th-worst).

· Bengals LG Cordell Volson ranks 42nd in pass blocking efficiency out of 49 qualifying guards and he will struggle versus interior defender DeForest Buckner, whose 37 pressures rank 17th.

· Indianapolis will get interior defender Grover Stewart back from suspension to start next to Buckner on Sunday. Stewart had a 9.9% run stop rate in the first 6 weeks (15th).

· Colts C Ryan Kelly returned from his concussion and played all 71 snaps last week but the offensive line lost RT Braden Smith against the Titans. Smith has conceded only 10 pressures in 264 pass-blocking snaps this season compared to backup RT Blake Freeland, who has allowed 30 pressures in 266 pass-blocking snaps. Smith is worth 1.3 points by our numbers.

· Cincinnati interior defender DJ Reader has 34 pressures (18th) but he will be contained by LG Quenton Nelson, who ranks 3rd in pass blocking efficiency.

· Our model favors the Bengals by 0.9 points, with a predicted total of 43.5 points, and Indy applies to a 22-66-1 ATS letdown situation based on last week’s overtime win.