Game Analysis
CINCINNATI (-10.5) vs Indianapolis
I wrote extensively why I thought Andy Dalton would struggle last week in Pittsburgh and he went on to throw for 3.2 yppp and 2 interceptions. However, this week I’m expecting a bounce-back game. The Bengals offensive line is one of the worst in the league and Dalton’s performance is dependent on a clean pocket. Last season, Dalton ranked 7th amongst QBs when facing no pressure but ranked just 25th passing while under pressure according to Football Outsiders. In the three games this season the Bengals offensive line has faced a defense with a sack rate less than 7%, Dalton is averaging 7.8 yppp. Meanwhile, Dalton has thrown for just 4.3 yppp against defenses with a sack rack above 7%. The Colts defense has a 5% sack rate (26th) and I expect Dalton to have time in the pocket in this game. Furthermore, Dalton plays particularly well against defenses he hasn’t faced in the last season. For his career, Dalton’s record is 28-9-2 against non-familiar opponents compared to 20-26 against familiar opponents. Dalton has thrown 78 touchdowns and 29 interceptions against non-familiar opponents compared to 54 touchdowns and 49 interceptions against familiar opponents. Dalton’s only game this season against a non-familiar opponent was against the Packers where he threw for 6.4 yppp, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions in the week 3 overtime loss. Indianapolis certainly qualifies as a non-familiar opponent as Dalton hasn’t faced them since the 2014 season. The Colts pass defense ranks last in my numbers and this week seems like the perfect storm for Dalton to have a big game.
Cincinnati’s defense ranks 3rd in yppl and I don’t expect them to have much trouble stopping an Indianapolis offense averaging just 4.7 yppl (28th). In the three games the Bengals defense has played against offenses averaging less than 5 yppl this season, they held the Ravens, Browns, and Bills to a combined 3.7 yppl.
Despite all of the evidence that supports Cincinnati here, I’m going to have to pass this game due to an onslaught of situational analysis that favors the Colts, including a 150-60-2 ATS situation and a 50-18-1 ATS angle that plays on teams that were shutout the previous week. For those the like the situations, the Colts are for you. But, not for me. I’ll pass.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.3
36.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
38.6%
51.0%
-
Sack Rate
11.1%
5.2%
-
Int Rate
2.7%
2.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.6%
25.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
45.3%
57.8%
-
NYPP
5.7
8.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.6
30.7
-
RB YPR
3.5
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
24.3%
21.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
39.7%
39.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.2%
41.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.6
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
62.9
67.4
-
Early Down Succ
40.6%
45.8%
-
Succ Rate
38.6%
44.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
44.8%
54.2%
-
Yards Per Play
4.6
6.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.5
28.3
-
Run Ratio
43.9%
45.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.0
25.6
-
Game Control
-3.9
3.9
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.7
34.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
42.4%
37.1%
-
Sack Rate
9.2%
7.9%
-
Int Rate
4.2%
2.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.1%
15.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.4%
42.9%
-
NYPP
6.0
5.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.0
30.2
-
RB YPR
3.2
3.4
-
Stuff Rate
26.1%
25.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
34.6%
44.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.0%
30.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.3
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
60.7
64.3
-
Early Down Succ
40.8%
42.8%
-
Succ Rate
38.5%
40.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.9%
40.2%
-
Yards Per Play
4.7
4.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.3%
0.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.4
28.9
-
Run Ratio
42.5%
46.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.6
28.8
-
Game Control
1.1
-1.1
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@LA |
9 – 46 L |
-21.3 |
28.0% /
54.8% |
16.0% /
3.2% |
9.5% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
10.0 |
32.0% /
22.5% |
28.0% /
22.5% |
3.0 /
1.7 |
50 /
71 |
40.5% /
43.5% |
30.0% /
36.6% |
81.4% /
52.7% |
4.5 /
5.3 |
2.0% /
1.4% |
50.0% /
56.3% |
23.1 /
35.8 |
| 2 |
ARI |
13 – 16 L |
6.3 |
41.5% /
40.0% |
9.8% /
10.0% |
2.7% /
2.8% |
4.6 /
7.7 |
34.5% /
34.6% |
24.1% /
11.5% |
2.6 /
3.2 |
70 /
66 |
36.5% /
39.6% |
38.6% /
37.9% |
16.5% /
63.6% |
3.8 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.4% /
39.4% |
24.5 /
29.6 |
| 3 |
CLE |
31 – 28 W |
9.2 |
33.3% /
35.4% |
11.1% /
2.1% |
0.0% /
6.4% |
9.0 /
4.9 |
27.0% /
57.1% |
37.8% /
19.0% |
2.5 /
5.3 |
64 /
69 |
24.4% /
42.9% |
29.7% /
42.0% |
63.7% /
53.8% |
5.3 /
5.0 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
57.8% /
30.4% |
29.6 /
28.9 |
| 4 |
@SEA |
18 – 46 L |
-7.0 |
37.5% /
65.5% |
9.4% /
10.3% |
3.4% /
7.7% |
4.3 /
9.8 |
52.0% /
42.4% |
8.0% /
24.2% |
3.9 /
5.9 |
57 /
62 |
44.2% /
47.8% |
43.9% /
53.2% |
30.0% /
67.7% |
4.2 /
7.7 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
43.9% /
53.2% |
28.3 /
20.2 |
| 5 |
SF |
26 – 23 W |
3.3 |
44.7% /
50.0% |
10.5% /
4.2% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
7.6 /
7.0 |
32.4% /
31.8% |
32.4% /
31.8% |
4.4 /
3.0 |
75 /
70 |
38.2% /
46.3% |
38.7% /
44.3% |
58.1% /
37.3% |
6.0 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.3% /
31.4% |
28.8 /
17.5 |
| 6 |
@TEN |
22 – 36 L |
1.2 |
51.4% /
57.6% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
0.0% /
3.1% |
5.7 /
9.2 |
40.0% /
42.9% |
20.0% /
20.0% |
4.3 /
4.8 |
57 /
68 |
53.2% /
51.9% |
47.4% /
50.0% |
22.6% /
42.2% |
5.2 /
7.0 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
35.1% /
51.5% |
26.5 /
27.4 |
| 7 |
JAC |
0 – 27 L |
-18.7 |
34.0% /
53.6% |
21.3% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
2.9 /
11.8 |
60.0% /
44.7% |
20.0% /
21.1% |
4.8 /
5.0 |
67 /
66 |
46.9% /
49.0% |
41.8% /
48.5% |
41.4% /
61.8% |
3.5 /
7.9 |
0.0% /
3.0% |
29.9% /
57.6% |
28.0 /
20.1 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
BAL |
0 – 20 L |
-11.0 |
30.6% /
27.8% |
13.9% /
5.6% |
12.9% /
5.9% |
4.0 /
6.2 |
36.4% /
45.2% |
22.7% /
19.0% |
3.5 /
3.7 |
58 /
60 |
34.1% /
39.1% |
32.8% /
40.0% |
45.7% /
32.1% |
3.8 /
4.5 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
37.9% /
70.0% |
30.8 /
32.2 |
| 2 |
HOU |
9 – 13 L |
-1.4 |
31.6% /
40.7% |
7.9% /
11.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.6 /
3.6 |
54.2% /
51.4% |
16.7% /
31.4% |
3.4 /
4.8 |
62 /
62 |
44.4% /
53.2% |
40.3% /
46.8% |
41.0% /
39.1% |
4.8 /
4.3 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
38.7% /
56.5% |
31.2 /
24.1 |
| 3 |
@GB |
24 – 27 L |
6.6 |
53.3% /
43.8% |
10.0% /
12.5% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
6.4 /
5.8 |
32.3% /
47.1% |
29.0% /
29.4% |
3.6 /
3.8 |
61 /
65 |
46.8% /
44.0% |
42.6% /
44.6% |
31.8% /
58.1% |
5.0 /
5.3 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
50.8% /
26.2% |
26.5 /
25.8 |
| 4 |
@CLE |
31 – 7 W |
16.5 |
60.6% /
29.5% |
9.1% /
4.5% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
8.0 /
3.9 |
40.0% /
41.2% |
26.7% /
35.3% |
2.9 /
2.6 |
63 /
61 |
50.0% /
32.6% |
50.8% /
32.8% |
43.4% /
33.0% |
5.6 /
3.5 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
47.6% /
27.9% |
28.3 /
26.4 |
| 5 |
BUF |
20 – 16 W |
3.1 |
43.2% /
32.6% |
2.7% /
14.0% |
5.6% /
2.7% |
8.7 /
3.2 |
22.6% /
45.8% |
22.6% /
20.8% |
2.2 /
3.4 |
68 /
67 |
37.0% /
38.8% |
33.8% /
37.3% |
47.7% /
22.2% |
5.8 /
3.3 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
45.6% /
35.8% |
25.6 /
34.8 |
| 7 |
@PIT |
14 – 29 L |
-7.2 |
35.3% /
48.0% |
11.8% /
0.0% |
6.7% /
0.0% |
3.2 /
10.7 |
22.2% /
37.0% |
38.9% /
17.4% |
4.0 /
3.4 |
52 /
71 |
32.4% /
49.1% |
30.8% /
40.8% |
35.6% /
56.5% |
3.5 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.6% /
64.8% |
29.1 /
29.4 |
Indianapolis Colts
@ 
Cincinnati Bengals