Game Analysis

ATLANTA (-1) vs Indianapolis

· The Indianapolis offense will likely be without two influential starters on Sunday. Colts RT Braden Smith suffered a knee injury during the first quarter of the week 13 game against Tennessee and isn’t quite ready to come back. Backup RT Blake Freeland ranks 51st in pass-blocking efficiency out of 54 qualifying tackles.

· Indianapolis WR Michael Pittman is averaging 2.06 yards per route run (18th) but he will likely be sidelined and remaining outside WR Alec Pierce will be limited by cornerback AJ Terrell, who is allowing only 0.83 yards per cover snap (14th).

· Gardner Minshew will look for slot WR Josh Downs, who has a 55% success rate (20th). Falcons nickelback Dee Alford is surrendering 1.51 yards per cover snap in the slot (3rd-worst).

· The Colts will be contained on the ground as Atlanta’s defense is allowing -0.21 EPA/rush (2nd).

· The Falcons offense averages 31.6 runs per game (2nd) but they were stymied last week without three starters along the offensive line. Atlanta’s offense blocked for a league-low -0.1 yards before contact in Carolina, but I do not expect this to repeat on Sunday.

· Falcons’ center Drew Dalman and right guard Chris Lindstrom will likely be back on the field to lead Atlanta’s ground game versus an Indianapolis defense surrendering a 42.3% rush success rate (26th). Lindstrom is also will be critical in pass protection as he’s allowed a league-low 12 pressures.

· Desmond Ridder was benched, and I don’t think there is a major difference between him and Taylor Heinicke. Ridder has a 46.6% success rate and is averaging -0.06 EPA/play this season. Heinicke has a 43.3% success rate while averaging 0.05 EPA/play.

· Our model favors the Falcons by 0.1 points, with a predicted total of 41.9 points, but Indy applies to a 78-150-10 late-season road team situation. I used Atlanta in my pool, as they have a 52.4% chance of covering at -1.