Game Analysis
LOS ANGELES RAMS (-11.5) vs Houston
My quarterback model makes Tom Savage about 7 points worse per game than DeShaun Watson and he certainly hasn’t played well in his limited action thus far (just 3.3 yards per pass play). Houston will need to establish the run to take some of the pressure off Savage and this week provides a good matchup against a Rams defense surrendering 4.6 ypr (27th). I expect the Texans to stick to the ground game as long as they can keep this game close, but if the Rams take a two-score lead, Savage will have a hard time bringing them back.
The Rams have the league’s best passing offense according to my metrics and they will get an excellent matchup this week. Houston’s defense is surrendering 7.0 yppp (28th) and have allowed a combined 9.5 yppp to the Seahawks and Colts the past 2 weeks. The Los Angeles offense averages 46 points per game and 11.5 yppp when facing pass defenses ranked in the bottom 10 this season. I can certainly envision a blowout win by the Rams but my model thinks the line is fair so I’ll pass.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.9
34.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.2%
44.8%
-
Sack Rate
9.4%
7.0%
-
Int Rate
3.2%
3.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
25.6%
23.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
46.1%
43.9%
-
NYPP
6.5
6.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.5
26.8
-
RB YPR
3.9
3.1
-
Stuff Rate
18.8%
23.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
49.2%
42.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
31.4%
43.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.4
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
66.4
61.3
-
Early Down Succ
48.3%
47.5%
-
Succ Rate
45.7%
43.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.0%
46.0%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.6
28.7
-
Run Ratio
45.9%
43.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.5
28.2
-
Game Control
1.3
-1.3
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.0
35.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.1%
38.9%
-
Sack Rate
4.0%
9.0%
-
Int Rate
1.4%
4.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.1%
16.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
53.5%
43.7%
-
NYPP
8.2
5.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
33.0
26.9
-
RB YPR
4.0
4.2
-
Stuff Rate
26.1%
24.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.8%
41.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.5%
41.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
65.0
62.8
-
Early Down Succ
49.9%
41.3%
-
Succ Rate
47.3%
40.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
50.2%
45.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
5.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.6%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.2
28.3
-
Run Ratio
50.9%
42.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
32.9
28.7
-
Game Control
8.1
-8.1
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
JAC |
7 – 30 L |
-11.9 |
34.8% / 52.4% |
21.7% / 0.0% |
2.8% / 0.0% |
2.4 / 6.0 |
60.9% / 41.5% |
17.4% / 17.1% |
4.0 / 3.8 |
69 / 62 |
44.6% / 53.3% |
43.5% / 45.2% |
12.8% / 32.6% |
2.9 / 4.5 |
4.3% / 0.0% |
33.3% / 66.1% |
26.5 / 38.2 |
2 |
@CIN |
13 – 9 W |
1.4 |
40.7% / 31.6% |
11.1% / 7.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
3.6 / 5.6 |
51.4% / 54.2% |
31.4% / 16.7% |
4.8 / 3.4 |
62 / 62 |
53.2% / 44.4% |
46.8% / 40.3% |
39.1% / 41.0% |
4.3 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
56.5% / 38.7% |
24.1 / 31.2 |
3 |
@NE |
33 – 36 L |
-1.2 |
48.6% / 47.5% |
5.7% / 12.5% |
6.1% / 0.0% |
8.3 / 8.4 |
56.3% / 45.0% |
15.6% / 30.0% |
3.9 / 3.0 |
67 / 60 |
54.7% / 46.8% |
52.2% / 46.7% |
38.8% / 52.3% |
6.2 / 6.6 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
47.8% / 33.3% |
24.0 / 28.8 |
4 |
TEN |
57 – 14 W |
20.6 |
58.3% / 40.9% |
5.6% / 9.1% |
2.9% / 20.0% |
7.6 / 5.0 |
50.0% / 35.0% |
14.3% / 15.0% |
4.1 / 4.4 |
78 / 42 |
53.8% / 43.8% |
53.8% / 38.1% |
28.5% / 52.6% |
5.7 / 4.7 |
0.0% / 2.4% |
53.8% / 47.6% |
38.0 / 21.9 |
5 |
KC |
34 – 42 L |
-9.9 |
46.9% / 57.9% |
9.4% / 2.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.8 / 8.5 |
60.9% / 40.0% |
13.0% / 34.3% |
6.3 / 3.6 |
55 / 73 |
56.8% / 47.4% |
52.7% / 49.3% |
64.8% / 31.6% |
7.1 / 6.2 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
41.8% / 47.9% |
27.6 / 31.2 |
6 |
CLE |
33 – 17 W |
16.2 |
50.0% / 31.7% |
3.3% / 9.8% |
3.4% / 8.1% |
7.2 / 2.8 |
26.5% / 63.6% |
26.5% / 13.6% |
3.6 / 6.1 |
64 / 63 |
38.8% / 49.0% |
37.5% / 42.9% |
47.5% / 39.7% |
5.3 / 3.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
53.1% / 34.9% |
24.9 / 28.0 |
8 |
@SEA |
38 – 41 L |
1.4 |
45.7% / 51.2% |
14.3% / 4.7% |
10.0% / 2.4% |
10.5 / 10.4 |
50.0% / 17.4% |
17.6% / 39.1% |
4.2 / 1.5 |
69 / 66 |
51.7% / 44.0% |
47.8% / 39.4% |
72.7% / 62.4% |
7.4 / 7.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
49.3% / 34.8% |
22.4 / 27.4 |
9 |
IND |
14 – 20 L |
-6.3 |
28.3% / 45.5% |
4.3% / 9.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.2 / 8.5 |
38.1% / 44.8% |
14.3% / 20.7% |
4.5 / 3.2 |
67 / 62 |
32.7% / 51.1% |
31.3% / 45.2% |
31.6% / 55.6% |
4.3 / 6.0 |
1.5% / 1.6% |
31.3% / 46.8% |
24.2 / 19.1 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
IND |
46 – 9 W |
21.3 |
54.8% / 28.0% |
3.2% / 16.0% |
0.0% / 9.5% |
10.0 / 6.0 |
22.5% / 32.0% |
22.5% / 28.0% |
1.7 / 3.0 |
71 / 50 |
43.5% / 40.5% |
36.6% / 30.0% |
52.7% / 81.4% |
5.3 / 4.5 |
1.4% / 2.0% |
56.3% / 50.0% |
35.8 / 23.1 |
2 |
WAS |
20 – 27 L |
-4.5 |
39.3% / 48.3% |
7.1% / 6.9% |
3.8% / 0.0% |
8.6 / 5.4 |
59.1% / 46.2% |
13.6% / 17.9% |
4.2 / 5.9 |
50 / 68 |
51.4% / 49.1% |
48.0% / 47.1% |
61.9% / 46.2% |
6.7 / 5.7 |
2.0% / 0.0% |
44.0% / 57.4% |
22.4 / 34.5 |
3 |
@SF |
41 – 39 W |
8.5 |
64.3% / 46.3% |
0.0% / 9.8% |
0.0% / 2.7% |
10.4 / 7.5 |
51.5% / 51.5% |
30.3% / 27.3% |
3.8 / 3.4 |
61 / 74 |
57.4% / 47.2% |
57.4% / 48.6% |
55.4% / 50.8% |
6.9 / 5.7 |
3.3% / 1.4% |
54.1% / 44.6% |
36.1 / 36.1 |
4 |
@DAL |
35 – 30 W |
-2.3 |
48.6% / 35.1% |
2.7% / 5.4% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
6.6 / 6.8 |
65.6% / 55.6% |
21.9% / 14.8% |
5.3 / 7.0 |
69 / 64 |
63.0% / 41.7% |
56.5% / 43.8% |
51.6% / 52.3% |
6.0 / 6.9 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
46.4% / 42.2% |
34.8 / 22.4 |
5 |
SEA |
10 – 16 L |
0.8 |
35.4% / 45.0% |
4.2% / 7.5% |
4.3% / 5.4% |
5.7 / 4.5 |
40.9% / 19.2% |
45.5% / 23.1% |
4.5 / 2.4 |
70 / 66 |
33.3% / 31.3% |
37.1% / 34.8% |
44.3% / 8.7% |
5.4 / 3.7 |
4.3% / 0.0% |
31.4% / 39.4% |
29.2 / 35.2 |
6 |
@JAC |
27 – 17 W |
5.1 |
37.5% / 37.5% |
12.5% / 12.5% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
4.5 / 5.5 |
64.7% / 42.3% |
20.6% / 30.8% |
4.2 / 6.5 |
58 / 66 |
65.9% / 42.0% |
53.4% / 39.4% |
35.5% / 54.2% |
4.3 / 5.9 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
58.6% / 39.4% |
30.5 / 25.3 |
7 |
ARI |
33 – 0 W |
16.0 |
42.1% / 28.6% |
2.6% / 8.6% |
2.7% / 6.3% |
6.0 / 4.8 |
48.8% / 25.0% |
14.6% / 41.7% |
4.8 / 2.1 |
79 / 47 |
39.7% / 27.3% |
45.6% / 27.7% |
29.1% / 35.8% |
5.4 / 4.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
51.9% / 25.5% |
33.8 / 26.0 |
9 |
@NYG |
51 – 17 W |
19.5 |
54.5% / 42.5% |
0.0% / 5.0% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
14.1 / 5.2 |
37.5% / 59.3% |
40.0% / 11.1% |
4.1 / 4.1 |
62 / 67 |
44.7% / 51.0% |
43.5% / 49.3% |
71.3% / 38.1% |
7.6 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 3.0% |
64.5% / 40.3% |
40.8 / 27.0 |