Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Rams Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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LOS ANGELES RAMS (-11.5) vs Houston

My quarterback model makes Tom Savage about 7 points worse per game than DeShaun Watson and he certainly hasn’t played well in his limited action thus far (just 3.3 yards per pass play). Houston will need to establish the run to take some of the pressure off Savage and this week provides a good matchup against a Rams defense surrendering 4.6 ypr (27th). I expect the Texans to stick to the ground game as long as they can keep this game close, but if the Rams take a two-score lead, Savage will have a hard time bringing them back.

The Rams have the league’s best passing offense according to my metrics and they will get an excellent matchup this week. Houston’s defense is surrendering 7.0 yppp (28th) and have allowed a combined 9.5 yppp to the Seahawks and Colts the past 2 weeks. The Los Angeles offense averages 46 points per game and 11.5 yppp when facing pass defenses ranked in the bottom 10 this season. I can certainly envision a blowout win by the Rams but my model thinks the line is fair so I’ll pass.

Team Stats
Game Log

Texans
Rams

HOU

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 35.9 34.5
Succ Pass Plays 44.2% 44.8%
Sack Rate 9.4% 7.0%
Int Rate 3.2% 3.8%
Deep Pass Rate 25.6% 23.0%
Big Pass Yards 46.1% 43.9%
NYPP 6.5 6.9

Rush

Rush Plays 30.5 26.8
RB YPR 3.9 3.1
Stuff Rate 18.8% 23.3%
Succ Rush Plays 49.2% 42.7%
Big Rush Yards 31.4% 43.8%
Yards Per Rush 4.4 3.6

Game

All Snaps 66.4 61.3
Early Down Succ 48.3% 47.5%
Succ Rate 45.7% 43.4%
Big Yards Rate 42.0% 46.0%
Yards Per Play 5.4 5.5
Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.9%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.6 28.7
Run Ratio 45.9% 43.8%
Starting Field Pos 26.5 28.2
Game Control 1.3 -1.3

Points 28.6 26.1

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	JAC	7 – 30 L	-11.9	34.8% / 52.4%	21.7% / 0.0%	2.8% / 0.0%	2.4 / 6.0	60.9% / 41.5%	17.4% / 17.1%	4.0 / 3.8	69 / 62	44.6% / 53.3%	43.5% / 45.2%	12.8% / 32.6%	2.9 / 4.5	4.3% / 0.0%	33.3% / 66.1%	26.5 / 38.2
2	@CIN	13 – 9 W	1.4	40.7% / 31.6%	11.1% / 7.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.6 / 5.6	51.4% / 54.2%	31.4% / 16.7%	4.8 / 3.4	62 / 62	53.2% / 44.4%	46.8% / 40.3%	39.1% / 41.0%	4.3 / 4.8	0.0% / 1.6%	56.5% / 38.7%	24.1 / 31.2
3	@NE	33 – 36 L	-1.2	48.6% / 47.5%	5.7% / 12.5%	6.1% / 0.0%	8.3 / 8.4	56.3% / 45.0%	15.6% / 30.0%	3.9 / 3.0	67 / 60	54.7% / 46.8%	52.2% / 46.7%	38.8% / 52.3%	6.2 / 6.6	0.0% / 1.7%	47.8% / 33.3%	24.0 / 28.8
4	TEN	57 – 14 W	20.6	58.3% / 40.9%	5.6% / 9.1%	2.9% / 20.0%	7.6 / 5.0	50.0% / 35.0%	14.3% / 15.0%	4.1 / 4.4	78 / 42	53.8% / 43.8%	53.8% / 38.1%	28.5% / 52.6%	5.7 / 4.7	0.0% / 2.4%	53.8% / 47.6%	38.0 / 21.9
5	KC	34 – 42 L	-9.9	46.9% / 57.9%	9.4% / 2.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.8 / 8.5	60.9% / 40.0%	13.0% / 34.3%	6.3 / 3.6	55 / 73	56.8% / 47.4%	52.7% / 49.3%	64.8% / 31.6%	7.1 / 6.2	1.8% / 0.0%	41.8% / 47.9%	27.6 / 31.2
6	CLE	33 – 17 W	16.2	50.0% / 31.7%	3.3% / 9.8%	3.4% / 8.1%	7.2 / 2.8	26.5% / 63.6%	26.5% / 13.6%	3.6 / 6.1	64 / 63	38.8% / 49.0%	37.5% / 42.9%	47.5% / 39.7%	5.3 / 3.9	0.0% / 0.0%	53.1% / 34.9%	24.9 / 28.0
8	@SEA	38 – 41 L	1.4	45.7% / 51.2%	14.3% / 4.7%	10.0% / 2.4%	10.5 / 10.4	50.0% / 17.4%	17.6% / 39.1%	4.2 / 1.5	69 / 66	51.7% / 44.0%	47.8% / 39.4%	72.7% / 62.4%	7.4 / 7.3	0.0% / 0.0%	49.3% / 34.8%	22.4 / 27.4
9	IND	14 – 20 L	-6.3	28.3% / 45.5%	4.3% / 9.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.2 / 8.5	38.1% / 44.8%	14.3% / 20.7%	4.5 / 3.2	67 / 62	32.7% / 51.1%	31.3% / 45.2%	31.6% / 55.6%	4.3 / 6.0	1.5% / 1.6%	31.3% / 46.8%	24.2 / 19.1

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	IND	46 – 9 W	21.3	54.8% / 28.0%	3.2% / 16.0%	0.0% / 9.5%	10.0 / 6.0	22.5% / 32.0%	22.5% / 28.0%	1.7 / 3.0	71 / 50	43.5% / 40.5%	36.6% / 30.0%	52.7% / 81.4%	5.3 / 4.5	1.4% / 2.0%	56.3% / 50.0%	35.8 / 23.1
2	WAS	20 – 27 L	-4.5	39.3% / 48.3%	7.1% / 6.9%	3.8% / 0.0%	8.6 / 5.4	59.1% / 46.2%	13.6% / 17.9%	4.2 / 5.9	50 / 68	51.4% / 49.1%	48.0% / 47.1%	61.9% / 46.2%	6.7 / 5.7	2.0% / 0.0%	44.0% / 57.4%	22.4 / 34.5
3	@SF	41 – 39 W	8.5	64.3% / 46.3%	0.0% / 9.8%	0.0% / 2.7%	10.4 / 7.5	51.5% / 51.5%	30.3% / 27.3%	3.8 / 3.4	61 / 74	57.4% / 47.2%	57.4% / 48.6%	55.4% / 50.8%	6.9 / 5.7	3.3% / 1.4%	54.1% / 44.6%	36.1 / 36.1
4	@DAL	35 – 30 W	-2.3	48.6% / 35.1%	2.7% / 5.4%	0.0% / 2.9%	6.6 / 6.8	65.6% / 55.6%	21.9% / 14.8%	5.3 / 7.0	69 / 64	63.0% / 41.7%	56.5% / 43.8%	51.6% / 52.3%	6.0 / 6.9	0.0% / 1.6%	46.4% / 42.2%	34.8 / 22.4
5	SEA	10 – 16 L	0.8	35.4% / 45.0%	4.2% / 7.5%	4.3% / 5.4%	5.7 / 4.5	40.9% / 19.2%	45.5% / 23.1%	4.5 / 2.4	70 / 66	33.3% / 31.3%	37.1% / 34.8%	44.3% / 8.7%	5.4 / 3.7	4.3% / 0.0%	31.4% / 39.4%	29.2 / 35.2
6	@JAC	27 – 17 W	5.1	37.5% / 37.5%	12.5% / 12.5%	0.0% / 2.9%	4.5 / 5.5	64.7% / 42.3%	20.6% / 30.8%	4.2 / 6.5	58 / 66	65.9% / 42.0%	53.4% / 39.4%	35.5% / 54.2%	4.3 / 5.9	1.7% / 0.0%	58.6% / 39.4%	30.5 / 25.3
7	ARI	33 – 0 W	16.0	42.1% / 28.6%	2.6% / 8.6%	2.7% / 6.3%	6.0 / 4.8	48.8% / 25.0%	14.6% / 41.7%	4.8 / 2.1	79 / 47	39.7% / 27.3%	45.6% / 27.7%	29.1% / 35.8%	5.4 / 4.1	0.0% / 0.0%	51.9% / 25.5%	33.8 / 26.0
9	@NYG	51 – 17 W	19.5	54.5% / 42.5%	0.0% / 5.0%	0.0% / 2.6%	14.1 / 5.2	37.5% / 59.3%	40.0% / 11.1%	4.1 / 4.1	62 / 67	44.7% / 51.0%	43.5% / 49.3%	71.3% / 38.1%	7.6 / 4.8	0.0% / 3.0%	64.5% / 40.3%	40.8 / 27.0

Houston Texans @

Los Angeles Rams

Sun, Nov 12

1:05 PM Pacific

Game Analysis