Houston Texans @

Los Angeles Rams

Sun, Nov 12
1:05 PM Pacific
Rotation: 267
Odds: Los Angeles Rams -11.5, Total: 45.5

Game Analysis

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LOS ANGELES RAMS (-11.5) vs Houston

My quarterback model makes Tom Savage about 7 points worse per game than DeShaun Watson and he certainly hasn’t played well in his limited action thus far (just 3.3 yards per pass play). Houston will need to establish the run to take some of the pressure off Savage and this week provides a good matchup against a Rams defense surrendering 4.6 ypr (27th). I expect the Texans to stick to the ground game as long as they can keep this game close, but if the Rams take a two-score lead, Savage will have a hard time bringing them back.

The Rams have the league’s best passing offense according to my metrics and they will get an excellent matchup this week. Houston’s defense is surrendering 7.0 yppp (28th) and have allowed a combined 9.5 yppp to the Seahawks and Colts the past 2 weeks. The Los Angeles offense averages 46 points per game and 11.5 yppp when facing pass defenses ranked in the bottom 10 this season. I can certainly envision a blowout win by the Rams but my model thinks the line is fair so I’ll pass.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Texans
  • Rams
HOU
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 35.9 34.5
  • Succ Pass Plays 44.2% 44.8%
  • Sack Rate 9.4% 7.0%
  • Int Rate 3.2% 3.8%
  • Deep Pass Rate 25.6% 23.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 46.1% 43.9%
  • NYPP 6.5 6.9



Rush


  • Rush Plays 30.5 26.8
  • RB YPR 3.9 3.1
  • Stuff Rate 18.8% 23.3%
  • Succ Rush Plays 49.2% 42.7%
  • Big Rush Yards 31.4% 43.8%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.4 3.6




Game

  • All Snaps 66.4 61.3
  • Early Down Succ 48.3% 47.5%
  • Succ Rate 45.7% 43.4%
  • Big Yards Rate 42.0% 46.0%
  • Yards Per Play 5.4 5.5
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.9%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.6 28.7
  • Run Ratio 45.9% 43.8%
  • Starting Field Pos 26.5 28.2
  • Game Control 1.3 -1.3
 
  • Points 28.6 26.1
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