Game Analysis

Lean – INDIANAPOLIS (+1)  over Houston 

· The winner of this game will take the AFC South and secure the 4-seed if the Jaguars lose. Otherwise, the winner of this game will be a Wild Card.

· CJ Stroud came back last week after missing two games and the Texans clearly did not want the franchise quarterbacks to take hits. He had a season-low 5.3-yard average depth of target against the Titans and 65% of Houston’s passing yards came after the catch.

· The Texans offense has a 43.1% success rate in the 14 games Stroud has played (13th), which is very good for an offense led by a rookie quarterback.

· Houston WR Nico Collins is averaging 0.57 EPA/target (2nd) and he will battle with CB Jaylon Jones, who is allowing only 0.72 yards per cover snap (7th).

· The Indianapolis defense has allowed only a 48% success rate to tight ends this year (6th) but starting safety Julian Blackmon will be out. Opposing offenses are challenging backup safety Nick Cross more downfield with an average air yards per attempt of 15.7 compared to just 8.6 yards when Blackmon was in coverage. Texans TE Dalton Schultz is averaging 0.26 EPA/target (6th).

· Houston LT Laremy Tunsil departed in the last game with a groin injury and did not return but it looks like he will be able to suit up this week. Tunsil ranks 9th in pass-blocking efficiency.

· Colts’ interior defender DeForest Buckner has 49 pressures (13th) and he should dominate backup rookie left guard Juice Scruggs.

· The Texans’ defense is allowing -0.18 EPA/rush (3rd) and Indianapolis’ season rides on Gardner Minshew’s shoulders.

· Minshew will have clean pockets to sling it as Houston’s defense will likely be without two starters on the defensive line in edge defender Jonathan Greenard and interior defender Maliek Collins. Greenard has 12.5 sacks (10th) and Collins has 44 pressures (18th).

· Texans edge rusher Will Anderson had 2 sacks last week, but he was limited by an ankle sprain and was on the field for only 12 snaps. Anderson will be limited, even if fully healthy, by Colts RT Braden Smith, who ranks 9th in pass-blocking efficiency in the 9 weeks he has been on the field.

· Meanwhile, Ryan Kelly leads centers in pass blocking efficiency, but the Indianapolis center is likely out and worth a half point according to our metrics.

· Shane Steichen’s offense is averaging a league-high 20% more yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush than the blitz and Minshew will have a favorable matchup versus Houston’s defense with a 78.9% standard pass rush rate (4th-highest).

· Our model favors Houston by 1.6 points, with a predicted total of 45.6 points, but the Texans apply to a 79-150-10 ATS final road game situation. I used Indy in my spread pool.