Houston Texans @ Detroit Lions Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – DETROIT (+3) over Houston

Deshaun Watson accounted for 95% of Houston’s yards on offense in the win over the Patriots last week and he is unlikely to slow down on Thursday. Detroit’s pass defense ranks 25th in our numbers and the Texans should have Laremy Tunsil back on the field after the starting left tackle missed last game with an illness. Tunsil is conceding just a 2.5% pressure rate and he will contain edge defender Romeo Okwara, who ranks 3rd in pass rushing efficiency. Houston’s offense averaged just 0.1 yards before contact per rush against New England without Tunsil on the offensive line, so the running backs should have more room to run this week.

Matt Stafford had only two passes that gained at least 20 yards last week, his second-fewest this year. Detroit’s offense remains terrible without Kenny Golladay. Stafford averaged more than 10 air yards per attempt in all five of Golladay’s starts and his average depth of target has been below 10 in every week without the Pro Bowl WR. Golladay practiced in a limited capacity on Monday but did not practice on Tuesday or Wednesday and is out again on Thanksgiving. To make matters worse, Stafford also won’t have Danny Amendola as an option. Amendola is averaging 1.88 yards per route run in the slot (4th) and is worth a half point by our metrics. The good news for the Lions is they could have rookie RB D’Andre Swift back on the field if he is cleared from the concussion he got in week 9. Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson combined for 2.7 yards per rush last week with Swift out of the lineup. Swift is forcing 0.15 missed tackles per touch compared to Johnson’s 0.13 and Peterson’s 0.07, so he’d be a boost to the Lions’ rushing attack if he could play.

Our model favors the Texans by just 1 points, with a predicted total of 50.4 points, and the fact that the Lions were shutout last week isn’t a bad thing. All teams coming off a shutout loss have been profitable over many years and teams that are an underdog or pick are 44-13-1 ATS after a shutout loss against non-division opponents with a win percentage of less than .600.

Team Stats
Game Log

Texans
Lions

HOU

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 36.5 35.7
Succ Pass Plays 53.7% 51.5%
Sack Rate 7.2% 6.1%
Int Rate 1.5% 0.5%
Deep Pass Rate 18.5% 21.0%
Big Pass Yards 41.6% 37.2%
NYPP 7.5 7.1

Rush

Rush Plays 22.0 31.5
RB YPR 3.2 5.1
Stuff Rate 23.2% 16.8%
Succ Rush Plays 41.9% 51.7%
Big Rush Yards 30.9% 44.3%
Yards Per Rush 3.8 5.0

Game

All Snaps 58.5 67.2
Early Down Succ 51.9% 53.3%
Succ Rate 49.8% 51.4%
Big Yards Rate 40.8% 43.0%
Yards Per Play 6.1 6.1
Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.4%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.7 29.9
Run Ratio 37.4% 47.2%
Starting Field Pos 26.4 26.8
Game Control -3.2 3.2

Points 22.7 27.2

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@KC	20 – 34 L	-8.0	55.6% / 66.7%	11.1% / 3.0%	3.1% / 0.0%	6.7 / 6.2	59.1% / 47.1%	9.1% / 20.6%	5.4 / 4.9	58 / 67	59.6% / 56.6%	56.9% / 56.7%	33.3% / 19.0%	6.2 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	37.9% / 50.7%	22.3 / 37.2
2	BAL	16 – 33 L	-8.9	55.0% / 46.4%	10.0% / 14.3%	2.8% / 0.0%	6.3 / 6.3	35.3% / 45.9%	17.6% / 5.4%	3.0 / 6.2	57 / 65	54.3% / 48.9%	49.1% / 46.2%	28.0% / 58.0%	5.3 / 6.3	1.8% / 0.0%	29.8% / 56.9%	23.8 / 27.8
3	@PIT	21 – 28 L	1.9	40.6% / 50.0%	15.6% / 5.3%	3.7% / 0.0%	7.2 / 5.7	20.0% / 52.6%	26.7% / 13.2%	1.9 / 4.4	47 / 76	31.4% / 54.7%	34.0% / 51.3%	54.6% / 36.7%	5.5 / 5.1	0.0% / 0.0%	31.9% / 50.0%	26.6 / 27.2
4	MIN	23 – 31 L	-6.9	47.2% / 52.0%	8.3% / 12.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.1 / 9.9	50.0% / 57.5%	19.2% / 10.0%	3.7 / 4.1	62 / 65	54.2% / 60.0%	48.4% / 55.4%	40.2% / 50.2%	6.2 / 6.3	1.6% / 0.0%	41.9% / 61.5%	26.6 / 27.3
5	JAC	30 – 14 W	4.9	61.1% / 39.6%	2.8% / 7.5%	5.7% / 0.0%	9.9 / 5.5	50.0% / 55.0%	18.2% / 25.0%	5.9 / 3.8	58 / 73	57.4% / 42.6%	56.9% / 43.8%	54.7% / 30.8%	8.4 / 5.0	0.0% / 2.7%	37.9% / 27.4%	23.4 / 34.0
6	@TEN	36 – 42 L	-5.0	62.5% / 55.8%	5.0% / 4.7%	0.0% / 2.4%	8.0 / 7.9	55.6% / 48.1%	29.6% / 14.8%	3.4 / 9.7	67 / 70	61.2% / 51.7%	59.7% / 52.9%	42.5% / 61.6%	6.1 / 8.6	0.0% / 1.4%	40.3% / 38.6%	31.3 / 21.1
7	GB	20 – 35 L	-14.2	59.5% / 58.8%	7.1% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.8 / 8.3	36.4% / 59.3%	27.3% / 22.2%	3.6 / 3.6	64 / 61	55.1% / 61.7%	51.6% / 59.0%	29.9% / 40.4%	5.7 / 6.2	1.6% / 0.0%	34.4% / 44.3%	30.8 / 26.1
9	@JAC	27 – 25 W	4.8	44.1% / 55.0%	5.9% / 5.0%	0.0% / 2.6%	7.9 / 7.4	46.4% / 48.1%	25.0% / 18.5%	3.8 / 4.3	62 / 67	48.9% / 56.9%	45.2% / 52.2%	50.5% / 45.4%	6.0 / 6.1	1.6% / 0.0%	45.2% / 40.3%	26.3 / 27.1
10	@CLE	7 – 10 L	-3.8	43.8% / 42.9%	6.3% / 4.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.8 / 6.0	45.5% / 48.8%	27.3% / 17.1%	4.1 / 5.6	54 / 62	43.6% / 48.9%	44.4% / 46.8%	26.7% / 44.7%	4.5 / 5.7	0.0% / 0.0%	40.7% / 66.1%	28.4 / 16.8
11	NE	27 – 20 W	3.3	67.6% / 47.6%	0.0% / 4.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.3 / 8.3	21.1% / 54.2%	31.6% / 20.8%	2.9 / 3.6	56 / 66	53.3% / 51.0%	51.8% / 50.0%	47.4% / 43.0%	7.1 / 6.6	0.0% / 0.0%	33.9% / 36.4%	24.4 / 23.4

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	CHI	23 – 27 L	5.9	51.2% / 45.9%	2.3% / 2.7%	2.4% / 0.0%	6.7 / 5.8	44.8% / 60.7%	13.8% / 14.3%	4.8 / 5.3	72 / 65	52.7% / 59.6%	48.6% / 52.3%	50.2% / 35.8%	5.9 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	40.3% / 43.1%	27.0 / 29.0
2	@GB	21 – 42 L	-5.7	45.9% / 54.8%	10.8% / 3.2%	3.0% / 0.0%	5.9 / 7.4	61.9% / 57.1%	14.3% / 8.6%	4.2 / 7.4	58 / 66	53.3% / 58.8%	51.7% / 56.1%	37.1% / 58.2%	5.3 / 7.4	0.0% / 0.0%	36.2% / 53.0%	20.0 / 28.0
3	@ARI	26 – 23 W	0.2	51.4% / 55.6%	11.4% / 2.8%	0.0% / 8.6%	6.6 / 7.4	29.6% / 55.6%	33.3% / 14.8%	3.3 / 4.0	62 / 63	42.9% / 57.7%	41.9% / 55.6%	35.4% / 34.5%	5.2 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	43.5% / 42.9%	36.4 / 19.4
4	NO	29 – 35 L	-4.8	38.2% / 59.3%	8.8% / 7.4%	3.2% / 4.0%	5.6 / 8.4	59.1% / 61.9%	18.2% / 14.3%	4.1 / 3.9	56 / 69	41.0% / 59.6%	46.4% / 60.9%	36.7% / 27.3%	5.0 / 5.7	0.0% / 0.0%	39.3% / 60.9%	31.8 / 25.7
6	@JAC	34 – 16 W	13.1	41.9% / 35.6%	0.0% / 2.2%	3.2% / 2.3%	7.2 / 5.1	46.2% / 43.8%	20.5% / 25.0%	4.6 / 2.8	70 / 61	48.1% / 35.6%	44.3% / 37.7%	43.2% / 40.0%	5.8 / 4.5	0.0% / 1.6%	55.7% / 26.2%	37.3 / 29.2
7	@ATL	23 – 22 W	0.0	44.7% / 56.8%	5.3% / 4.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.5 / 7.3	33.3% / 38.5%	33.3% / 30.8%	3.0 / 2.5	59 / 70	47.7% / 50.0%	40.7% / 50.0%	44.6% / 20.1%	6.5 / 5.5	0.0% / 1.4%	35.6% / 37.1%	28.7 / 16.7
8	IND	21 – 41 L	-6.0	40.4% / 58.3%	10.6% / 5.6%	2.4% / 0.0%	6.3 / 6.9	30.8% / 48.7%	46.2% / 17.9%	2.2 / 3.1	60 / 75	36.4% / 55.2%	38.3% / 53.3%	50.9% / 43.2%	5.4 / 4.9	1.7% / 0.0%	21.7% / 52.0%	27.8 / 29.4
9	@MIN	20 – 34 L	-12.3	59.6% / 52.4%	4.3% / 4.8%	6.7% / 0.0%	6.2 / 10.1	59.3% / 64.7%	7.4% / 8.8%	4.8 / 8.1	74 / 55	62.3% / 65.9%	59.5% / 60.0%	22.6% / 69.4%	5.7 / 8.9	0.0% / 0.0%	36.5% / 61.8%	33.3 / 27.3
10	WAS	30 – 27 W	9.1	58.8% / 54.4%	2.9% / 3.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.9 / 6.6	47.6% / 53.8%	23.8% / 7.7%	5.0 / 3.4	55 / 83	57.8% / 55.4%	54.5% / 54.2%	44.4% / 33.8%	6.8 / 5.6	0.0% / 1.2%	38.2% / 31.3%	26.9 / 23.5
11	@CAR	0 – 20 L	-10.1	31.6% / 47.2%	13.2% / 2.8%	0.0% / 5.7%	3.8 / 7.2	35.3% / 41.2%	29.4% / 11.8%	2.4 / 3.4	55 / 70	37.8% / 50.0%	32.7% / 44.3%	30.3% / 24.9%	3.4 / 5.3	1.8% / 0.0%	30.9% / 48.6%	25.8 / 33.1

Houston Texans @

Detroit Lions

Thu, Nov 26

8:30 AM Pacific

Game Analysis