Houston Texans
@ 
Cleveland Browns
Game Analysis
Lean – CLEVELAND (-12.5) over Houston
Cleveland graded 3.8 points better than average by our metrics, which was the highest by any losing team last week, and the Browns should rebound with a big win against a Houston team coming off a 37-21 upset win over the Jaguars. In week 2, teams that won their opener by more than 14 points as an underdog are just 1-17 ATS facing a team that was 7-9 or better the previous season (i.e. a decent team) that lost their opening game.
Edge rusher Myles Garrett had 8 pressures last week but I expect the All-Pro to be contained by Texans’ LT Laremy Tunsil, who ranked 5th in pass blocking efficiency last year.
Houston quarterback Tyrod Taylor averaged 8.5 yards per pass play thanks to three deep passes to Brandin Cooks, who racked up 3.77 yards per route run in the opening win. However, Cooks will likely be locked up by Browns’ elite cornerback Denzel Ward on Sunday.
Browns LT Jedrick Wills is banged-up with an ankle injury and may miss this game. Wills ranked 18th in pass blocking efficiency last season and backup Chris Hubbard surrendered a 27% pressure rate after Wills went out last week. Wills and WR Odell Beckham are worth 1.4 points to Cleveland’s offense but the model still likes Cleveland (by 13.5 points with a total of 49.3 points) and the situation is favorable.
- Team Stats
- Game Log
- Texans
- Browns
Pass
- Pass Plays 34.0 52.0
- Succ Pass Plays 55.9% 38.5%
- Sack Rate 2.9% 1.9%
- Int Rate 0.0% 5.9%
- Deep Pass Rate 24.2% 23.5%
- Big Pass Yards 58.4% 43.7%
- NYPP 8.6 6.4
Rush
- Rush Plays 41.0 16.0
- RB YPR 3.1 4.8
- Stuff Rate 19.5% 18.8%
- Succ Rush Plays 48.8% 62.5%
- Big Rush Yards 25.0% 17.1%
- Yards Per Rush 3.9 4.8
Game
- All Snaps 75.0 68.0
- Early Down Succ 50.9% 47.3%
- Succ Rate 52.0% 44.1%
- Big Yards Rate 46.6% 38.7%
- Yards Per Play 6.0 6.0
- Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
- Time Per Play (sec) 27.9 22.1
- Run Ratio 54.7% 23.5%
- Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
- Game Control 14.4 -14.4
- Points 37.0 21.0