Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Over (47) – Houston at CINCINNATI

Lean – CINCINNATI (-7)

· Joe Burrow’s pocket mobility is much better with his recovered calf allowing him to extend plays. Burrow had an average time to throw of 2.3 seconds or faster in the first four games this season compared to 2.5 seconds or longer in games since week 5. Burrow took only 1 sack across 17 pressured dropbacks last Sunday night.

· Burrow had 220 yards versus zone coverage against the Bills and he has a league-high 66% success rate versus zone in the last two weeks. Burrow will go against another zone-heavy defense on Sunday as the Texans have an 81.9% zone coverage rate (8th-highest) and it looks like they’ll be without starting safety Jimmie Ward, who left last game with a hamstring injury in the second quarter.

· CJ Stroud’s 470 yards last week broke the single-game rookie passing yardage record with Houston’s coaching staff finally starting to trust the second-overall pick.

· Stroud got 63% of his passing yards on first down against the Buccaneers as Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik is done wasting early downs with running the ball. Houston’s rushing offense has only a 31.6% success rate on first and second down this year (29th).

· The Texans are averaging 7.1 yards per pass play compared to 3.3 yards per carry and shifting the run-pass ratio is going to do wonders for the offense.

· Houston TE Dalton Schultz is gaining 1.54 yards per route run (9th) and he has a favorable matchup as Cincinnati’s defense is surrendering a 63% success rate to tight ends (29th).

· Texans LT Laremy Tunsil is conceding only a 3.7% pressure rate, and he will limit Trey Hendrickson, who ranks 2nd in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Tee Higgins has been labeled as out with a hamstring injury but Ja’Marr Chase practiced on Thursday and should play.

· Our model favors the Bengals by 8.8 points, with a predicted total of 51.3 points.

The Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 47 points or less (Strong Opinion up to 48).