Game Analysis

Lean – BALTIMORE (-9.5) over Houston

Strong Opinion – Isaiah Likely (BALT) Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-130) to (-140) or to 40 yards (-115)

· CJ Stroud averaged 0.67 EPA/play in his playoff debut last week against a Browns defense that conceded a league-low 36.3% dropback success rate in the regular season.

· Stroud completed 3 of his 4 passes with 20+ air yards last week – one of which was to WR Nico Collins, who had 13 deep receptions in the regular season (7th).

· Collins averaged 0.57 EPA/target (2nd) and he has a favorable matchup with Ravens’ starting cornerback Marlon Humphrey is likely sidelined this week. Humphrey conceded only 0.66 yards per cover snap (5th) and is worth 1.2 points to Baltimore’s defense by our numbers.

· Collins had 5 receptions for 84 yards when Cleveland’s defense played man coverage last week, but Houston’s offense was much better overall against zone this season. Stroud averaged 0.17 EPA/dropback versus zone (4th) compared to -0.16 EPA/dropback against man coverage (26th). The Ravens are in the middle of the pack in man coverage percentage but they might play more zone with Humphrey out and after Collins’s game versus the Browns’ man coverage.

· Texans’ rookie LG Juice Scruggs will struggle when lined up across from interior defender Justin Madubuike, who ranks 7th in pass-rushing efficiency. Furthermore, Houston backup Michael Deiter has surrendered 19 pressures since becoming the starting center in week 9 (5th-most).

· It gets bleak for Houston’s wide receivers behind Nico Collins with Tank Dell and Noah Brown both out. Brown and Dell combined to average 2.07 yards per route run while the other Texans wide receivers are averaging just 0.96 yards per route run.

· Tight ends are the only skill group averaging above 0 EPA per target against the Ravens’ defense so Stroud will likely highlight TE Dalton Schultz, who averaged 0.26 EPA/target (6th).

· Baltimore’s offense has a 45.7% rush success rate (3rd) but I don’t think they’ll want to bang their running backs into a Texans defense allowing -0.16 EPA/rush (6th). Instead, Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken will look to get most of the EPA from Lamar Jackson dropbacks – either passing or scrambling.

· The Texans have a balanced pass rush. Edge defender Jonathan Greenard had 12.5 sacks (10th) and edge defender Will Anderson ranked 14th in pass-rushing efficiency. Interior defender Maliek Collins had 45 pressures (19th) and interior defender Sheldon Rankins ranked 17th in pass-rushing efficiency. However, Baltimore’s offensive line has no weaknesses and conceded only 10 sacks in 11 games with starters on the field this year.

· Ravens TE Mark Andrews was averaging 0.56 EPA/target (2nd) before being sidelined in week 11 and he should be back on the field this Saturday. Andrews is worth nearly a point according to our numbers.

· Our model makes Baltimore a 10.0-point favorite, with a predicted total of 43.5 points, and Houston applies to a 1-24 ATS playoff situation based on last week’s high-scoring upset win.