Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Best Bet – *Over (48.5) – Green Bay at SEATTLE

Lean – Green Bay (+3)

Seattle’s defense is overrated as they’ve been a completely different unit without Earl Thomas. The Seahawks ranked 15th in success rate allowed before losing Thomas at the end of week 4 and they rank 30th is success rate allowed since his injury surrendering 1.1 more yards per play. Conversely, Green Bay’s offense is trending upwards. Aaron Rodgers is no longer dealing with mobility restriction like he was earlier in the season and the Packers have found an effective ground game. Aaron Jones’ 55% rush success rate leads the NFL and his 6.1 yards per rush since joining the league last year is best all qualifying running backs. Jones didn’t play more than 30 snaps in the first 7 weeks, but he’s been featured more since the bye and received 83% of the carries last Sunday. The Packers have the league’s 2nd-best rush offense and there still could be room for improvement with Jones in a workhorse role.

Seattle is the only offense in the league with more runs than passes, which gives them a favorable matchup against Green Bay’s defense ranking 28th against the run and 12th against the pass. Even Russell Wilson is using his legs more often with 9 rushes last Sunday after averaging just 3.0 rushes per game coming into the week. Wilson ranks 8th in expected points added with his legs among quarterbacks, after finishing second last season, and the Seahawks will gain an extra dimension on offense if he continues to utilize his scrambling ability like he did versus the Rams. DE Nick Perry is out for the Packers so we’ll see more of Reggie Gilbert, who has the same amount of pressures and more sacks in 32 fewer pass rushes than Perry this season. Although, Gilbert will have an unfavorable matchup lining up across from Duane Brown, who ranks 15th among tackles in pass blocking efficiency.

Our model leans with the Packers but there is more value on the over and I’ll take the Over in a 1-Star Best Bet at 48.5 points or less (Strong Opinion Over 49).

Team Stats
Game Log

Packers
Seahawks

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 40.9 34.8
Succ Pass Plays 48.5% 45.6%
Sack Rate 7.4% 9.9%
Int Rate 0.6% 2.2%
Deep Pass Rate 22.2% 18.6%
Big Pass Yards 46.1% 49.8%
NYPP 7.1 7.0

Rush

Rush Plays 22.8 27.7
RB YPR 4.9 4.5
Stuff Rate 17.6% 18.1%
Succ Rush Plays 53.4% 47.5%
Big Rush Yards 47.8% 35.5%
Yards Per Rush 5.1 4.4

Game

All Snaps 63.7 62.4
Early Down Succ 51.0% 47.9%
Succ Rate 50.0% 45.5%
Big Yards Rate 48.1% 45.6%
Yards Per Play 6.4 5.6
Fumble Lost Rate 1.7% 0.9%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.5 29.1
Run Ratio 35.8% 45.2%
Starting Field Pos 27.0 30.5
Game Control -1.2 1.2

Points 24.8 24.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	CHI	24 – 23 W	-9.5	43.9% / 35.9%	9.8% / 10.3%	2.7% / 0.0%	7.3 / 4.0	27.8% / 59.3%	16.7% / 18.5%	3.8 / 5.1	59 / 66	40.0% / 48.9%	39.0% / 45.5%	59.5% / 38.1%	6.3 / 4.5	1.7% / 1.5%	30.5% / 40.9%	30.7 / 25.7
2	MIN	29 – 29 T	6.3	48.9% / 56.0%	8.9% / 4.0%	0.0% / 2.1%	5.6 / 8.2	54.2% / 44.4%	25.0% / 5.6%	4.1 / 3.8	69 / 68	55.4% / 53.7%	50.7% / 52.9%	31.3% / 44.4%	5.1 / 7.1	0.0% / 0.0%	34.8% / 26.5%	29.9 / 26.5
3	@WAS	17 – 31 L	-12.0	34.7% / 50.0%	8.2% / 0.0%	0.0% / 5.0%	4.9 / 11.0	64.7% / 32.4%	11.8% / 10.8%	5.9 / 4.5	66 / 57	42.9% / 40.5%	42.4% / 38.6%	35.9% / 60.1%	5.2 / 6.8	1.5% / 0.0%	25.8% / 64.9%	26.4 / 30.8
4	BUF	22 – 0 W	12.8	47.6% / 27.5%	4.8% / 17.5%	2.5% / 6.1%	6.7 / 2.2	56.3% / 43.8%	37.5% / 25.0%	4.4 / 3.6	74 / 56	50.0% / 37.5%	51.4% / 32.1%	49.6% / 31.0%	5.7 / 2.6	1.4% / 1.8%	43.2% / 28.6%	27.4 / 27.3
5	@DET	23 – 31 L	-13.9	80.6% / 52.9%	11.1% / 17.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	11.8 / 10.0	52.4% / 34.5%	9.5% / 27.6%	4.7 / 3.3	57 / 46	55.6% / 32.6%	70.2% / 41.3%	41.2% / 37.7%	9.2 / 5.8	5.3% / 0.0%	36.8% / 63.0%	20.5 / 46.1
6	SF	33 – 30 W	-1.4	37.5% / 52.0%	6.3% / 8.0%	0.0% / 4.3%	8.4 / 9.1	52.4% / 66.7%	14.3% / 13.3%	5.5 / 5.8	69 / 55	44.4% / 67.4%	42.0% / 60.0%	55.5% / 54.1%	7.6 / 7.3	0.0% / 3.6%	30.4% / 54.5%	32.0 / 25.9
8	@LA	27 – 29 L	2.6	45.5% / 43.9%	9.1% / 12.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.7 / 6.9	63.2% / 42.9%	21.1% / 28.6%	5.6 / 3.9	52 / 76	58.1% / 43.6%	51.9% / 43.4%	69.4% / 51.3%	6.9 / 5.5	1.9% / 0.0%	36.5% / 46.1%	21.1 / 31.7
9	@NE	17 – 31 L	-5.1	47.7% / 55.3%	2.3% / 5.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.7 / 8.2	60.0% / 47.1%	12.0% / 20.6%	4.7 / 3.7	69 / 72	54.5% / 61.1%	52.2% / 51.4%	36.4% / 55.1%	5.3 / 6.1	1.4% / 0.0%	36.2% / 47.2%	19.3 / 29.2
10	MIA	31 – 12 W	9.9	50.0% / 37.2%	6.7% / 14.0%	0.0% / 2.7%	6.1 / 3.8	50.0% / 56.5%	10.7% / 13.0%	7.1 / 5.7	58 / 66	58.5% / 45.8%	50.0% / 43.9%	54.5% / 38.1%	6.6 / 4.5	1.7% / 1.5%	48.3% / 34.8%	35.7 / 31.4

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@DEN	24 – 27 L	-1.9	35.9% / 57.5%	15.4% / 2.5%	6.1% / 7.7%	6.2 / 8.1	18.8% / 50.0%	25.0% / 21.9%	4.0 / 4.6	55 / 72	34.9% / 58.3%	30.9% / 54.2%	63.7% / 53.2%	5.6 / 6.5	1.8% / 0.0%	29.1% / 44.4%	27.4 / 26.6
2	@CHI	17 – 24 L	-7.4	43.6% / 52.8%	15.4% / 5.6%	3.0% / 5.9%	5.2 / 5.1	45.5% / 48.3%	13.6% / 13.8%	3.4 / 3.0	61 / 65	44.9% / 55.1%	44.3% / 50.8%	23.2% / 6.3%	4.5 / 4.2	1.6% / 0.0%	36.1% / 44.6%	24.5 / 33.6
3	DAL	24 – 13 W	8.3	42.9% / 28.2%	7.1% / 12.8%	0.0% / 5.9%	6.5 / 3.5	30.0% / 52.6%	30.0% / 15.8%	2.9 / 8.7	68 / 58	34.0% / 39.5%	35.3% / 36.2%	34.8% / 51.2%	4.4 / 5.2	0.0% / 1.7%	58.8% / 32.8%	27.2 / 25.9
4	@ARI	20 – 17 W	2.0	48.1% / 42.9%	7.4% / 3.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.9 / 6.1	50.0% / 39.3%	23.5% / 35.7%	5.0 / 3.3	61 / 56	58.0% / 40.9%	49.2% / 41.1%	35.6% / 54.0%	5.4 / 4.7	0.0% / 1.8%	55.7% / 50.0%	35.5 / 26.4
5	LA	31 – 33 L	1.0	60.0% / 83.3%	13.3% / 4.2%	0.0% / 8.7%	12.2 / 13.0	53.1% / 40.6%	18.8% / 15.6%	5.9 / 4.9	47 / 56	44.2% / 56.9%	55.3% / 58.9%	66.5% / 49.1%	7.9 / 8.4	0.0% / 0.0%	68.1% / 57.1%	26.6 / 33.7
6	@OAK	27 – 3 W	15.9	50.0% / 37.8%	4.2% / 16.2%	4.3% / 0.0%	8.9 / 2.9	46.2% / 52.6%	15.4% / 15.8%	4.0 / 4.2	63 / 56	45.7% / 46.5%	47.6% / 42.9%	46.9% / 31.9%	5.9 / 3.3	0.0% / 3.6%	61.9% / 33.9%	42.2 / 20.5
8	@DET	28 – 14 W	8.8	57.9% / 55.8%	10.5% / 7.0%	0.0% / 2.5%	12.5 / 6.9	50.0% / 30.8%	23.8% / 23.1%	4.2 / 2.6	61 / 56	53.2% / 47.8%	52.5% / 50.0%	48.7% / 26.0%	6.8 / 5.9	0.0% / 3.6%	68.9% / 23.2%	25.8 / 15.0
9	LAC	17 – 25 L	-5.4	39.0% / 42.9%	9.8% / 7.1%	2.7% / 0.0%	4.9 / 7.7	62.5% / 50.0%	21.9% / 31.8%	4.8 / 7.3	73 / 50	52.7% / 51.2%	49.3% / 46.0%	30.3% / 69.9%	4.9 / 7.5	0.0% / 0.0%	43.8% / 44.0%	25.1 / 21.2
10	@LA	31 – 36 L	-0.6	48.3% / 53.7%	13.8% / 4.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.9 / 7.5	64.7% / 70.8%	14.7% / 8.3%	8.0 / 6.3	63 / 65	64.2% / 65.4%	57.1% / 60.0%	66.7% / 36.7%	6.6 / 7.0	1.6% / 0.0%	54.0% / 36.9%	24.1 / 30.2

Green Bay Packers @

Seattle Seahawks

Thu, Nov 15

5:20 PM Pacific

Game Analysis