Game Analysis

Lean – SAN FRANCISCO (-9.5) over Green Bay

Strong Opinion – Tucker Kraft (GB) Under 23 Receiving Yards (-115) to (-125) or down to 22 yards (-115)

· This is the first total above 50 for a 49ers game this season, which conveys more about the market perception of Green Bay’s defense in addition to the emergence of Jordan Love.

· Love averaged 1.13 EPA/play in the Wild Card round which was the most of any playoff quarterback in the last two decades.

· The Packers limited Cowboys All-Pro edge defender Micah Parsons to a career-low 5.3% pressure rate. Green Bay RT Zach Tom conceded 0 pressures in 9 matchups versus Parsons, and he should contain 49ers edge defender Nick Bosa, who ranks 7th in pass rushing efficiency.

· San Francisco’s defense has a 40.0% pressure rate (6th) but the 49ers are unlikely to hit that mark on Saturday night as Green Bay’s offensive line ranked 9th in pass-blocking efficiency in 2023.

· The Packers’ offense averaged 5.9 yppl with the current offensive line in the regular season – compared to 5.3 yppl in the 54% of snaps without this starting five.

· Green Bay’s offense is averaging 0.06 EPA/rush (3rd) since Aaron Jones got back on the field in week 15 but they will be limited on the ground as San Francisco’s rush defense ranks 7th according to our metrics.

· Jones is also averaging 1.40 yards per route run (10th) but the screen game will be challenged by a 49ers defense conceding a 36% pass success rate to running backs (9th).

· Matt LaFleur will be counting on his young wide receivers, particularly Jayden Reed, who is gaining 2.22 yards per route run in the slot (5th). San Francisco benched nickelback Isaiah Oliver in the bye week and brought in Deommodore Lenoir, who is surrendering 1.41 yards per cover snap in the slot since the week 9 bye (4th-worst).

· The 49ers memorably ran for 285 yards four years ago on the Packers in the NFC Championship and I think many are expecting Kyle Shanahan’s offense to bully Joe Barry’s defense. However, Green Bay hired Barry as defensive coordinator in 2021 and that season San Francisco averaged just 3.5 yards per carry in two games against the Packers’ defense and they haven’t squared off since then.

· Green Bay starting cornerback Jaire Alexander is likely out and I could see Shanahan opt for more of a passing approach in this game while preying on backup CB Corey Ballentine. Brandon Aiyuk leads wide receivers with 0.79 EPA/target and Deebo Samuel is averaging 0.43 EPA/target (8th).

· The Packers are surrendering a 59% success rate to tight ends (28th) and they will struggle against George Kittle, who is leading all tight ends with 0.66 EPA/target.

· 49ers LT Trent Williams is 3rd in pass blocking efficiency but RT Colton McKivitz has allowed 9 sacks (4th-most) and he will likely surrender another in this game against edge defender Rashan Gary, who ranks 9th in pass rushing efficiency.

· Green Bay DT Kenny Clark has 60 pressures (7th) and he will wreak havoc versus RG Spencer Burford, who ranks 54th in pass-blocking efficiency out of 56 qualifying guards. Burford has been so bad that the coaches have been toying with benching him for backup Jon Feliciano.

· Shanahan’s offense is targeting running backs on 23.8% of passes (5th-most) and Christian McCaffrey leads running backs with a 56% pass success rate. However, McCaffrey picked up a calf strain in week 17 and the Packers are one of 12 defenses not allowing more than a 40% pass success rate to running backs.

· Our model favors the 49ers by 11.1 points, with a predicted total of 48.3 points, and the Packers apply to a 1-24 ATS playoff situation that is based on last week’s high-scoring upset win.