Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **Green Bay (+3.5) over PITTSBURGH

Lean – Under (39)

· The Steelers cannot be laying more than a field goal to the Packers in this game. Pittsburgh’s -0.8 net yards per play ranks 27th in the NFL while Green Bay’s 0.1 net yppl ranks 14th.

· The Packers’ defense will shut down the deep passing game and Kenny Pickett is unable to string together long drives. Pickett has only a 42.4% success rate (27th).

· Steelers WR George Pickens has a 13.8-yard average depth of target (7th-highest) but Green Bay’s defense ranks 10th in explosive pass rate allowed and they will likely have starting safety Rudy Ford back on the field this week. Packers Pro Bowl cornerback Jaire Alexander will contain Pickens, whose 1.87 yards per route run ranks 20th.

· Pittsburgh’s yards per attempt against a zone is a league-low 68% of their yards per attempt versus man coverage and Pickett will struggle as Green Bay’s defense has an 83.1% zone coverage rate (6th-highest).

· Jordan Love averaged 6.9 yppp last week with the threat of RB Aaron Jones as a receiver opening up the Packers’ passing attack. Jones had a hamstring injury in Green Bay’s first game and a setback prior to week 5 but he got more than 40 snaps for the first game all season against the Rams. Jones had a season-high 6 targets last week and his 1.25 yards per route run in 2022 ranked 8th.

· Pittsburgh is at their best against division opponents, off a loss, or against good teams. However, this is none of those and the Steelers are just 8-31-1 ATS after a win and facing a non-division opponent with a win percentage of less than 0.400 in coach Mike Tomlin’s tenure. That scenario occurred one other time this season and the Steelers lost 6-30 as a 3 point favorite at Houston.

· Our model favors the Packers by 0.7 points, with a predicted total of 37.4 points, and this is a bad motivation spot for Tomlin’s team.

Green Bay is a 2-Star Best Bet at +3.5 -120 or better and 1-Star at +3 to -115 odds.