Game Analysis

Green Bay (-5) vs CAROLINA

· Bryce Young was pressured on a season-low 29% of dropbacks in Carolina’s win against Atlanta, but he will not be kept clean this week.

· Packers’ interior defenders Devonte Wyatt and Kenny Clark rank 5th and 9th respectively in pass-rushing efficiency and the Panthers’ interior offensive line has surrendered a league-high 64% of the pressures this season. Green Bay’s defense has a 38.0% pressure rate (9th).

· Carolina’s defense has allowed -0.11 EPA/dropback over the last three games (9th) with Jaycee Horn back on the field, but this matchup is not in their favor. The Panthers have an 88.3% zone rate (2nd-highest) and Jordan Love is averaging a league-high 50% more yards per attempt versus zone than man-coverage this season.

· Love could be without two starting wide receivers. WR Christian Watson is averaging 0.29 more yards per route run than WR Romeo Doubs but Watson will likely need another week to recover from a hamstring injury. Rookie WR Jayden Reed has been averaging 2.02 yards per slot route run (5th) since the Packers’ week 6 bye and he might be out as well.

· Green Bay running back Aaron Jones had 13 rushes in his first game back after missing nearly a month with a knee injury and he has a favorable matchup as Carolina’s defense is surrendering a league-high 0.02 EPA/rush this season.

· Our model favors the Packers by 3.7 points, with a predicted total of 36.3 points, but the matchups favor Green Bay and the fair line, all things considered, is 5.5 points.