Game Analysis

Detroit (-3) vs TAMPA BAY

· Jared Goff averaged 15.2 yppp on throws with at least 10 air yards last week but I expect his downfield passing to be limited on Sunday as Tampa Bay’s defense ranks 9th in explosive pass rate allowed.

· Goff’s yards per attempt versus the blitz is just 66% of his ypa against a standard pass rush and the Buccaneers have a 52.1% blitz rate (2nd-highest).

· Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs is gaining 1.15 yards per route run (8th) but he will likely be out again. However, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is averaging 2.09 yards per slot route run (4th), should return this week.

· Detroit’s offense goes as the offensive line goes. The Lions blocked for 3.2 yards per carry before contact in route to putting up 42 points against the Panthers and they should control the trenches again on Sunday. Detroit’s ground game ranks 5th according to our metrics and Tampa Bay’s rush defense is surrendering a 45.3% success rate (29th).

· Lions C Frank Ragnow ranks 4th in pass-blocking efficiency, and he will contain interior defender Vita Vea, who ranks 13th in pass-rushing efficiency. Detroit’s line will likely be without starting LG Jonah Jackson, but backup Graham Glasgow allowed an identical 7% pressure rate to Jackson when he was filling in for Halapoulivaati Vaitai at right guard.

· Baker Mayfield’s yards per attempt against the blitz is 67% more than versus a standard pass rush but the Lions send the standard 4 pass rushers on 86.2% of plays (25th) so Mayfield could struggle.

· Buccaneers RT Luke Goedeke is having a solid sophomore campaign ranking 13th in pass-blocking efficiency but he will likely struggle across from edge defender Aidan Hutchinson, who had 8 pressures and an interception last game.

· Detroit’s secondary is already without starting safety CJ Gardner-Johnson, then they lost starting cornerback Emmanuel Moseley to another torn ACL, and nickelback Brian Branch could miss another game this week as well. Lions’ backup CB Jerry Jacobs will lose his matchup against WR Mike Evans, who is averaging 0.62 EPA/target (12th).

· Tampa Bay has just a 27.8% rush success rate on first down (30th) but it doesn’t seem like they’ll stop banging their heads against the wall after their offensive coordinator Dave Canales was quoted, “we are efficient in the pass game because we run on first down”. Wrong! The Lions defense ranks 8th in EPA/rush.

· Our model makes Detroit a 3.4-point favorite with a predicted total of 45.2.