Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – SAN FRANCISCO (-7) over Detroit

Strong Opinion – Amon-Ra St. Brown (Det) Over 7.5 (-115) Receptions to -125

Strong Opinion – David Montgomery (Det) Under 10.5 (-105) Rushes to -115

Strong Opinion – Brandon Aiyuk (SF) Over 79 (-115) Receiving Yards to -125

· Brock Purdy averaged only 6.1 yppp last week in rainy conditions, which was 3.5 points worse than his average according to our metrics, and the 49ers narrowly advanced after their win probability was as low as 20% against the Packers.

· It wasn’t Purdy’s first game in wet conditions this season as he averaged only 3.6 yppp in a rainy Cleveland back in week 6. Purdy has averaged 9.1 yppp in his other 15 starts this year and I expect Kyle Shanahan to not be phased by last week’s shakiness given this favorable passing matchup and perfect weather.

· San Francisco’s offense led the NFL with a 47.0% rush success rate, but they will be limited as Detroit’s defense allowed just -0.17 EPA/rush (4th).

· Meanwhile, the Lions defense allowed 0.08 EPA/dropback (25th) and it hasn’t gotten better since the regular season finale when starting safety CJ Gardner-Johnson got back on the field. Detroit’s defense has surrendered 0.18 EPA/dropback since Gardner-Johnson returned.

· San Francisco wide receiver Deebo Samuel has been cleared to play with no restrictions, which opens up the entire 49ers’ playbook. San Francisco’s offense averaged +0.18 EPA per play for the season (excluding week 18 when Purdy sat, which was actually also +0.18 EPA) and the Niners were +0.25 EPA/play when both Samuel and future Hall of Fame LT Williams were both on the field, which works out to about 3.5 points per game better than their season average if Deebo plays 50 snaps.

·  Brandon Aiyuk, who led wide receivers this season averaging 0.79 EPA/target, should get more looks this week in a good matchup. Detroit CB Cameron Sutton surrendered 12.5 yards per target last week to Mike Evans and he will similarly struggle versus Aijuk.

· Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson is coming off his league-leading 16th game with at least 5 pressures this year and he will wreak havoc across from RT Colton McKivitz, who ranks 53rd in pass blocking efficiency out of 57 qualifying tackles.

· The matchup between Hutchinson and McKivitz is so vital I think Shanahan will resort to having George Kittle chip the Pro Bowl edge defender before going into his routes. Kittle will be further limited because Detroit’s defense is conceding only 0.07 EPA/target (7th) to tight ends.

· The Lions are one of 12 defenses to allow more than 0 EPA/target to running backs and the 49ers will also slow down Hutchinson’s pass rush with screens to Christian McCaffrey, who led running backs with a 56% pass success rate this season.

· Jared Goff has made a living with offensive coordinator Ben Johnson in the middle of the field where Detroit’s offense targets 25.8% of passes (2nd-most).

· Goff is averaging 13.5 yppp on intermediate middle throws this season but those will be shut down on Sunday night. Everyone knows about San Francisco All-Pro LB Fred Warner, but his running mate Dre Greenlaw is also one of the league’s best. Greenlaw continued a strong season of pass defense by conceding just 0.63 yards per cover snap with 2 interceptions last week.

· The 49ers defense allowed just a 46% completion rate on intermediate middle throws in 2023 (3rd).

· Lions TE Sam LaPorta averaged 0.36 EPA/target (3rd) but he will be shut down as San Francisco’s defense is conceding only a 45% success rate to tight ends (4th).

· With WR Kalif Raymond sidelined Detroit’s offense really doesn’t have many options outside to avoid targeting the 49ers linebackers. Lions’ wide receivers Josh Reynolds and Jameson Williams are combining for 0.73 yards per route run fewer than Raymond. Reynolds caught a touchdown last week but gained only 18 yards on his other 37 routes against the Buccaneers.

· The Lions offense will revolve around WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, who had a 59% success rate (4th) and runs 56.3% of his routes out of the slot. San Francisco benched nickelback Isaiah Oliver during the bye and Deommodore Lenoir is surrendering 1.28 yards per cover snap in the slot (5th-worst) since becoming the starting nickelback in week 10.

· The 49ers defense has just a 19.2% blitz rate (3rd-lowest) but I think they’ll be able to collapse the pocket this week with a four-man pass rush.

· San Francisco interior defender Arik Armstead ranked 10th in pass-rushing efficiency, and he was back on the field last week after missing the final 5 games of the regular season. Armstead had 5 pressures versus the Packers.

· Detroit center Frank Ragnow suffered both a sprained knee and sprained ankle last week. Ragnow played through it against Tampa Bay, but he is likely less than 100% for this game and could struggle when lined up across from Armstead.

· Meanwhile, Lions LG Jonah Jackson is out and backup Kayode Awosika surrendered a 25% pressure rate filling in last week. Awosika will not be able to contain DT Javon Hargrave, who had 52 pressures this season (12th).

· Detroit All-Pro RT Penei Sewell led the NFL in pass blocking efficiency, and he will contain edge defender Nick Bosa, who had 95 pressures (3rd).

· Our model favors the 49ers by 9.2 points, with a predicted total of 53.8 points and Detroit applies to an 11-49-1 ATS playoff situation.

San Francisco is a Strong Opinion at -7 at -115 odds or better.