Game Analysis

Note: This play was released earlier in the week when it was thought that Saints’ WR Olave would be out. He’s playing and the total has gone up – and so has our constraint. The Over is a Strong Opinion at 48 or less.

Strong Opinion – Over (46) – Detroit (-4) vs NEW ORLEANS

· The Saints WR Chris Olave is going to play but WR Michael Thomas is on injured reserve, and WR Rashid Shaheed is expected to miss at least one week with a quadriceps strain. Olave playing certainly helps and the Saints have other ways in this game to generate offense.

· The Saints ground game will not be able to shoulder the load as Detroit’s rush defense ranks 5th according to our metrics.

· I expect Derek Carr to have plenty of pass attempts regardless of the wide receivers. Instead, Carr will throw to tight end Juwan Johnson and running back Alvin Kamara, who is averaging 0.04 EPA/target (2nd).

· The Lions will likely be without starting linebacker Alex Anzalone this week. Anzalone is allowing 6.1 yards per target compared to backup LB Jack Campbell surrendering 9.7 yards per target. Johnson and Kamara will have a favorable matchup with Campbell in coverage.

· New Orleans RT Ryan Ramczyk ranks 7th in pass blocking efficiency, and he will contain edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, who has 63 pressures (4th).

· The Saints surrendered 228 yards on the ground against the Falcons last week and the run defense could struggle again as Detroit’s offense ranks 4th in EPA/rush.

· Detroit’s offensive line surrendered 25 pressures on 50 dropbacks last Thursday as they couldn’t solve the left guard spot with Jonah Jackson out. The Lions started rookie Colby Sorsdal but he was benched in the second quarter and replaced by Kayode Awosika, who allowed a 21% pressure rate. Jackson will likely be back on the field this week though.

· Detroit’s offense is averaging 0.03 EPA/play (8th) but it jumps to 0.26 EPA/play in the 26% of snaps with the offensive line combination of LT Taylor Decker, LG Jonah Jackson, C Frank Ragnow, RG Graham Glasgow, and RT Penei Sewell.

· Lions right tackle Sewell leads the NFL in pass-blocking efficiency, and he will shut down banged-up edge defender Cameron Jordan, who has 42 pressures (19th) but picked up an ankle injury late in the fourth quarter last game.

· Saints CB Alontae Taylor is surrendering 1.46 yards per cover snap in the slot ranking 25th out of 29 qualifying nickelbacks and he will struggle on the inside against WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, whose 64% success rate ranks 3rd.

· Our model favors the Lions by 5.5 points, with a predicted total of 49.7 points, and I think the matchups are favorable to the over.

The Over is a Strong Opinion at 48 points or less.