Game Analysis

HOUSTON (-3.5) vs Denver

Lean – Over (47)

· The Broncos have won 5 in a row almost entirely due to 9 fumble recoveries since the winning streak began. Denver’s offense is averaging only 4.6 yppl since week 7 (26th) and the defense is surrendering a 45.4% success rate over their win streak (30th).

· Houston TE Dalton Schultz is averaging 0.27 EPA/target (6th) and he has a favorable matchup as the Broncos are surrendering a 63% success rate to tight ends (30th).

· However, it might be tough sledding for CJ Stroud elsewhere in this game after being pressured on 61% of his dropbacks last week with two starters on the interior offensive line out.

· Texans LG Tytus Howard is expected to miss the remainder of the season because of a knee injury, and they were already without C Jarrett Patterson, who ranks 8th in pass blocking efficiency. Denver interior defender Zach Allen has 38 pressures (7th) and he will collapse pockets lined up across from two backups this week.

· Stroud showed poise behind the banged-up offensive line last week by extending plays. Stroud had 31% of his dropbacks take over 4 seconds against the Jaguars but Houston’s wide receivers will be blanketed on Sunday even when Stroud does escape from the pocket.

· Texans WR Nico Collins is averaging 0.56 EPA/target (4th) but he will likely be shadowed by All-Pro CB Pat Surtain. Broncos CB Fabian Moreau is conceding 0.66 yards per cover snap (2nd) and he will limit WR Tank Dell, whose 0.40 EPA/target ranks 15th.

· Sean Payton’s offense in Denver revolves around the running backs as the Broncos have the 8th-highest run rate adjusted for the situation but they will be contained as Houston’s defense is allowing only a 35.4% rush success rate (4th).

· Russell Wilson leads the NFL with 31.6% of his passes to running backs and the Texans are allowing 0.11 EPA/target to running backs (26th). Houston reinstated starting LB Denzel Perryman from the suspended list, and they expect his physical presence to control the screen game.

· Wilson will turn to slot receiver Jerry Jeudy in a favorable matchup versus Texans nickelback Tavierre Thomas, who is surrendering 1.69 yards per cover snap in the slot (3rd-worst).

· Our model makes Houston a 2.0-point favorite with a predicted total of 49.2 points.