Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Over (47) – BUFFALO (-7.5) over Denver

Lean – BUFFALO (-7.5)

· Fans have concerns about Buffalo’s 5-4 start to the season and some of those concerns are warranted in the sense that the Bills playoff chances would fall to about 30% with a loss to the Broncos. However, I think Buffalo will be extremely focused on Monday night and I’m not panicking about the offense.

· The Bills are averaging only a point per game fewer than last year, and the 51.7% success rate this season is better than the 49.0% success rate in 2022.

· Josh Allen is averaging 0.24 EPA/play (2nd) with a 2.2% PFF turnover-worthy throw rate (4th-lowest).

· Rookie TE Dalton Kincaid has a league-high 69% success rate, and he has a favorable matchup versus a Broncos defense surrendering 0.46 EPA/target to tight ends (31st).

· Denver edge defender Nik Bonitto ranks 11th in pass-rushing efficiency but he will be shut down by LT Dion Dawkins, who has allowed only 1 sack this season.

· The Broncos rank 30th in EPA/rush allowed and they will struggle against Buffalo’s offense with a league-high 47.4% rush success rate.

· The Bills defense hasn’t been the same without All-Pro linebacker Matt Milano and they are surrendering a 50% pass success rate to running backs (27th). Russell Wilson will look for screens to Samaje Perine, who leads all running backs averaging 1.99 yards per route run.

· WR Jerry Jeudy leads Denver’s wide receivers averaging 1.63 yards per route run but he will be limited on the inside by Buffalo nickelback Taron Johnson, who is allowing just 0.81 yards per cover snap in the slot (4th).

· Bills interior defender Ed Oliver ranks 6th in pass-rushing efficiency but he will be contained as a league-low 29% of the Broncos pressures have been at fault of the interior offensive line.

· Buffalo’s defense will need Von Miller and Greg Rousseau to get pressure on the edge. Rousseau ranks 19th in pass rushing efficiency and he will line up across from Denver RT Mike McGlinchey, who has surrendered 31 pressures (2nd-most).

· Our model favors the Bills by 9.9 points, with a predicted total of 50.6 points, and the Broncos apply to a 42-99-4 ATS situation while the Bills apply to an 84-26-1 ATS Monday night home team situation.

The Over is a Strong Opinion at 48 or less.