Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – WASHINGTON (+2) over Dallas

Lean – Under 47.5

The total on this game is high because both offenses have been efficient while both defenses rank in the middle of the pack in yards per play allowed. However, the combined average of 5.6 yards per play in Washington’s games so far this season is misleading, as the Redskins have faced a slate of mostly good offensive teams with below average defensive units. In fact, Washington’s opponents combine to rate at 0.34 yppl better than average offensively (3^rd toughest schedule of opposing offenses in the league) and 0.35 yppl worse than average defensively (3^rd easiest slate of defenses faced). Overall, Washington’s defense is actually better than their offense after compensating for schedule strength and the Redskins offense plays at the 4th slowest pace in the league.

There’s also reason to believe both teams will focus on the ground game, which will keep the clock moving for the under. After another dominant performance last week, Ezekiel Elliott seems to have gotten past his early season struggles and the Cowboys rush offense now ranks 1^st according to my metrics. However, on the other side of the ball, the Dallas defense ranks last against the run, which should lead to the Redskins running the ball more often than usual and slowing their pace even more. My model projects just 45 total points scored even without accounting for the multiple injuries to Washington’s offensive line (4 of their starting 5 are listed on the injury report). I will lean under with both teams feeding their running backs and I’ll also lean with Washington as an underdog.

Team Stats
Game Log

Cowboys
Redskins

DAL

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 35.2 40.3
Succ Pass Plays 46.6% 48.7%
Sack Rate 3.3% 8.5%
Int Rate 1.6% 1.0%
Deep Pass Rate 13.7% 13.8%
Big Pass Yards 38.6% 35.6%
NYPP 7.1 5.4

Rush

Rush Plays 29.8 25.5
RB YPR 4.2 4.2
Stuff Rate 22.6% 19.9%
Succ Rush Plays 50.2% 49.6%
Big Rush Yards 47.1% 43.0%
Yards Per Rush 4.7 4.3

Game

All Snaps 65.0 65.8
Early Down Succ 50.8% 51.7%
Succ Rate 49.0% 49.6%
Big Yards Rate 42.0% 40.9%
Yards Per Play 5.9 5.0
Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 1.3%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.1 27.1
Run Ratio 46.2% 38.2%
Starting Field Pos 29.8 24.1
Game Control 3.9 -3.9

Points 27.5 23.7

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	NYG	19 – 3 W	9.1	48.7% / 48.8%	2.6% / 7.3%	0.0% / 2.6%	6.7 / 4.8	54.8% / 23.1%	19.4% / 7.7%	4.2 / 2.8	70 / 54	50.9% / 46.2%	51.4% / 42.6%	37.0% / 27.8%	5.6 / 4.3	0.0% / 0.0%	44.3% / 24.1%	29.4 / 16.0
2	@DEN	17 – 42 L	-11.9	42.3% / 64.7%	3.8% / 5.9%	4.0% / 3.1%	4.4 / 5.9	28.6% / 52.5%	42.9% / 17.5%	2.9 / 4.5	66 / 74	44.7% / 59.6%	39.4% / 58.1%	14.6% / 30.7%	4.1 / 5.1	0.0% / 1.4%	21.2% / 54.1%	37.6 / 26.9
3	@ARI	28 – 17 W	-0.5	42.1% / 38.9%	5.3% / 11.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.2 / 5.2	33.3% / 33.3%	33.3% / 33.3%	3.7 / 2.3	46 / 75	42.9% / 35.7%	37.0% / 37.3%	62.8% / 51.5%	6.0 / 4.4	0.0% / 0.0%	58.7% / 28.0%	29.4 / 21.6
4	LA	30 – 35 L	2.3	35.1% / 48.6%	5.4% / 2.7%	2.9% / 0.0%	6.8 / 6.6	55.6% / 65.6%	14.8% / 21.9%	7.0 / 5.3	64 / 69	41.7% / 63.0%	43.8% / 56.5%	52.3% / 51.6%	6.9 / 6.0	1.6% / 0.0%	42.2% / 46.4%	22.4 / 34.8
5	GB	31 – 35 L	4.2	59.5% / 51.5%	2.7% / 12.1%	2.8% / 0.0%	6.6 / 5.5	60.0% / 64.0%	14.3% / 12.0%	4.7 / 6.4	72 / 58	57.9% / 58.0%	59.7% / 56.9%	28.7% / 43.3%	5.7 / 5.9	2.8% / 1.7%	48.6% / 43.1%	25.7 / 22.3
7	@SF	40 – 10 W	20.1	51.9% / 39.5%	0.0% / 11.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.7 / 4.3	68.9% / 59.1%	11.1% / 27.3%	5.9 / 4.7	72 / 65	66.7% / 48.0%	62.5% / 46.2%	57.0% / 40.7%	7.0 / 4.5	0.0% / 4.6%	62.5% / 33.8%	34.1 / 23.0

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	PHI	17 – 30 L	-5.1	38.6% / 51.2%	9.1% / 4.9%	2.5% / 2.6%	4.5 / 7.3	58.8% / 36.0%	23.5% / 28.0%	3.8 / 2.4	61 / 66	49.0% / 44.0%	44.3% / 45.5%	38.3% / 37.8%	4.3 / 5.4	4.9% / 1.5%	27.9% / 37.9%	26.1 / 31.8
2	@LA	27 – 20 W	4.5	48.3% / 39.3%	6.9% / 7.1%	0.0% / 3.8%	5.4 / 8.6	46.2% / 59.1%	17.9% / 13.6%	5.9 / 4.2	68 / 50	49.1% / 51.4%	47.1% / 48.0%	46.2% / 61.9%	5.7 / 6.7	0.0% / 2.0%	57.4% / 44.0%	34.5 / 22.4
3	OAK	27 – 10 W	11.9	61.3% / 37.1%	3.2% / 11.4%	0.0% / 6.5%	11.5 / 2.7	35.3% / 21.4%	17.6% / 21.4%	3.4 / 2.4	65 / 49	48.0% / 42.4%	47.7% / 32.7%	53.2% / 24.8%	7.3 / 2.6	3.1% / 2.0%	52.3% / 28.6%	28.7 / 31.7
4	@KC	20 – 29 L	4.3	45.8% / 47.5%	0.0% / 10.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.2 / 6.5	51.9% / 58.1%	14.8% / 19.4%	4.1 / 5.4	51 / 71	54.1% / 51.7%	49.0% / 52.1%	57.2% / 43.4%	6.5 / 6.0	2.0% / 0.0%	52.9% / 43.7%	26.8 / 21.2
6	SF	26 – 24 W	7.0	60.5% / 30.0%	2.6% / 6.0%	2.7% / 2.1%	8.6 / 5.0	38.2% / 65.0%	29.4% / 25.0%	2.8 / 4.3	72 / 70	51.8% / 41.2%	50.0% / 40.0%	43.6% / 50.4%	5.8 / 4.8	1.4% / 0.0%	47.2% / 28.6%	26.9 / 32.6
7	@PHI	24 – 34 L	-4.7	56.8% / 53.6%	9.1% / 10.7%	2.5% / 4.0%	6.1 / 8.7	47.4% / 29.4%	15.8% / 23.5%	4.0 / 3.8	63 / 62	62.5% / 39.6%	54.0% / 40.3%	46.4% / 63.4%	5.5 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	30.2% / 54.8%	27.7 / 32.5

Dallas Cowboys @

Washington Redskins

Sun, Oct 29

1:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis