Game Analysis

Lean – WASHINGTON (+13) over Dallas

Lean – Under (46)

· Dallas can clinch the NFC East with a win thanks to the late-season collapse by Philadelphia.

· Dak Prescott averaged 10.3 yppp against Washington’s defense on Thanksgiving and the Commanders are likely without starting CB Kendall Fuller for this game.

· Washington backup cornerback Emmanuel Forbes is allowing 4.3 more yards per target than Fuller, and the rookie will struggle across from WR Brandin Cooks, who is averaging 0.46 EPA/target (5th).

· Commanders’ nickelback Benjamin St-Juste should be back on the field to battle against WR CeeDee Lamb, who had 13 receptions for 227 yards last week. St-Juste’s return will be worth monitoring as the Cowboys’ offense heads the NFL throwing slants on 10.5% of passing attempts.

· Dallas LG Tyler Smith ranks 2nd in pass blocking efficiency but he is likely out. Washington interior defender Jonathan Allen has 49 pressures (13th) and would have a favorable matchup with Smith out if he is able to suit up with his injured knee.

· The Cowboys’ defense has a league-high 44.7% pressure rate and they will wreak havoc against a Commanders ranked 25th in pass-blocking efficiency without starting left tackle Charles Leno.

· Our model makes Dallas a 9.6-point favorite with a predicted total of 43.5 points.

· Dallas is a bully that beats up on bad teams and struggles against good teams, and the Cowboys are now 50-22-2 ATS against teams with a win percentage of .500 or less (6-1 ATS this season), but they also apply to a 19-60-1 ATS double-digit road favorite situation that they are 1-1 in this season.