Game Analysis
A Thursday game in which two teams had a full week of rest to prepare post their Thanksgiving ATS losses will feature two of the slowest tempo teams in the NFL. The Cowboys are one of the best teams at chewing clock, averaging 29.7 seconds per play (2nd slowest in the league), as they play with leads in an attempt to keep their below average defense off the field. Dallas has the highest offensive success rate in the league at 54.4%, which is even more impressive considering their run-heavy offense (51.9% run), the next closest team, the Bills, is a full 3% points behind them. Minnesota plays with the 6th slowest adjusted tempo although their offense has not been good, ranking 25th in efficiency and 31st in explosiveness, as they want to induce variance on the offensive side. Minnesota has a negative yards per play differential and has benefited from a +12 turnover differential that helped them get off to their fast start, but has since tapered off along with their record (1-5 since starting 5-0). The advanced stats model sees two teams who chew clock and value on the Under, so UNDER (44) is a Strong Opinion. Lean to Dallas (-3).
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.3
40.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
56.8%
51.0%
-
Sack Rate
4.2%
4.6%
-
Int Rate
0.6%
1.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.8%
16.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
32.9%
33.2%
-
NYPP
8.0
6.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
34.7
20.0
-
RB YPR
4.4
4.3
-
Stuff Rate
16.8%
27.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
52.7%
48.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
46.2%
44.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
67.0
60.9
-
Early Down Succ
58.0%
52.7%
-
Succ Rate
54.4%
50.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.8%
36.2%
-
Yards Per Play
6.2
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.7
27.0
-
Run Ratio
51.9%
33.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.5
26.3
-
Game Control
5.5
-5.5
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.0
39.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.2%
43.8%
-
Sack Rate
6.1%
6.1%
-
Int Rate
0.7%
3.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
13.8%
17.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.6%
34.0%
-
NYPP
6.1
5.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.1
24.0
-
RB YPR
2.8
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
26.1%
20.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
39.4%
44.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
26.7%
40.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
2.8
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
63.1
63.2
-
Early Down Succ
45.7%
46.0%
-
Succ Rate
42.9%
43.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
33.4%
36.2%
-
Yards Per Play
4.7
4.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.6
28.1
-
Run Ratio
41.1%
38.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.6
25.7
-
Game Control
0.9
-0.9
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
NYG |
19 – 20 L |
1.8 |
46.5% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
6.7% |
0.0% /
3.6% |
5.3 /
6.8 |
50.0% /
50.0% |
23.3% /
16.7% |
3.4 /
4.7 |
73 /
54 |
44.6% /
50.0% |
47.9% /
50.0% |
13.7% /
43.7% |
4.5 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.1% /
44.4% |
28.3 /
24.3 |
| 2 |
@WAS |
27 – 23 W |
1.7 |
52.9% /
51.1% |
11.8% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
8.2 /
7.4 |
50.0% /
58.8% |
26.7% /
17.6% |
3.4 /
4.8 |
64 /
64 |
51.0% /
56.9% |
51.6% /
53.1% |
33.4% /
49.5% |
5.9 /
6.8 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
46.9% /
26.6% |
27.7 /
31.0 |
| 3 |
CHI |
31 – 17 W |
13.6 |
62.5% /
53.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.3 /
6.7 |
73.2% /
26.7% |
12.2% /
46.7% |
4.9 /
4.9 |
65 /
62 |
73.6% /
51.0% |
69.2% /
46.8% |
33.8% /
45.4% |
6.9 /
6.3 |
1.5% /
3.2% |
63.1% /
24.2% |
30.7 /
26.3 |
| 4 |
@SF |
24 – 17 W |
-3.0 |
58.8% /
45.8% |
5.9% /
4.2% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
6.9 /
7.9 |
54.3% /
50.0% |
6.5% /
33.3% |
4.3 /
3.6 |
80 /
54 |
68.4% /
48.6% |
56.3% /
48.1% |
33.2% /
47.0% |
5.4 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
57.5% /
55.6% |
28.0 /
25.4 |
| 5 |
CIN |
28 – 14 W |
17.7 |
56.0% /
51.1% |
4.0% /
8.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.9 /
5.5 |
41.2% /
52.6% |
14.7% /
5.3% |
5.4 /
5.1 |
59 /
64 |
55.8% /
52.9% |
47.5% /
51.6% |
48.3% /
23.5% |
6.9 /
5.4 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
57.6% /
29.7% |
26.2 /
22.0 |
| 6 |
@GB |
30 – 16 W |
8.6 |
55.2% /
53.5% |
6.9% /
2.3% |
3.7% /
2.4% |
8.0 /
6.8 |
54.5% /
37.5% |
15.2% /
37.5% |
5.8 /
3.3 |
62 /
67 |
59.2% /
45.3% |
54.8% /
47.8% |
50.5% /
22.0% |
6.8 /
5.6 |
1.6% /
4.5% |
53.2% /
35.8% |
31.4 /
33.1 |
| 8 |
PHI |
29 – 23 W |
-1.5 |
38.1% /
42.6% |
4.8% /
6.4% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
4.1 |
50.0% /
62.5% |
32.4% /
33.3% |
5.5 /
4.0 |
76 /
71 |
45.0% /
51.8% |
43.4% /
49.3% |
62.8% /
16.2% |
6.1 /
4.1 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
44.7% /
33.8% |
26.7 /
30.7 |
| 9 |
@CLE |
35 – 10 W |
13.5 |
67.9% /
45.2% |
0.0% /
12.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.1 /
5.7 |
48.9% /
30.8% |
13.3% /
23.1% |
3.8 /
3.5 |
73 /
44 |
58.5% /
47.1% |
56.2% /
40.9% |
40.1% /
19.8% |
5.8 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
61.6% /
29.5% |
28.6 /
21.4 |
| 10 |
@PIT |
35 – 30 W |
-1.1 |
52.9% /
61.7% |
5.9% /
2.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.7 /
8.5 |
68.0% /
47.4% |
12.0% /
26.3% |
5.1 /
2.5 |
59 /
66 |
60.9% /
60.7% |
59.3% /
57.6% |
42.4% /
44.4% |
7.2 /
6.8 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
42.4% /
28.8% |
28.1 /
31.1 |
| 11 |
BAL |
27 – 17 W |
1.5 |
70.3% /
50.0% |
2.7% /
2.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.1 /
7.4 |
40.0% /
68.8% |
20.0% /
31.3% |
3.9 /
6.3 |
67 /
52 |
56.4% /
60.5% |
56.7% /
55.8% |
27.6% /
37.5% |
6.2 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.8% /
30.8% |
25.0 /
21.2 |
| 12 |
WAS |
31 – 26 W |
8.1 |
64.0% /
56.6% |
4.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.6 /
8.5 |
50.0% /
52.6% |
8.8% /
26.3% |
4.9 /
2.9 |
59 /
72 |
64.4% /
54.5% |
55.9% /
55.6% |
40.7% /
49.5% |
6.0 /
7.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
57.6% /
26.4% |
32.7 /
22.4 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@TEN |
25 – 16 W |
-0.0 |
42.4% /
58.1% |
0.0% /
4.7% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
7.2 /
5.9 |
31.0% /
50.0% |
27.6% /
31.8% |
2.3 /
2.9 |
62 /
65 |
37.0% /
54.9% |
37.1% /
55.4% |
24.8% /
24.4% |
4.9 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
3.1% |
46.8% /
33.8% |
35.1 /
26.4 |
| 2 |
GB |
17 – 14 W |
1.0 |
37.1% /
39.0% |
11.4% /
12.2% |
0.0% /
2.8% |
7.3 /
4.4 |
28.0% /
39.1% |
48.0% /
21.7% |
1.2 /
3.6 |
60 /
64 |
36.6% /
38.0% |
33.3% /
39.1% |
44.6% /
39.9% |
4.8 /
4.1 |
1.7% /
3.1% |
41.7% /
35.9% |
32.5 /
20.8 |
| 3 |
@CAR |
22 – 10 W |
0.7 |
43.3% /
34.1% |
6.7% /
18.2% |
0.0% /
8.3% |
5.1 /
4.6 |
30.8% /
46.4% |
34.6% /
7.1% |
2.3 /
3.8 |
56 /
72 |
45.0% /
41.5% |
37.5% /
38.9% |
6.6% /
41.5% |
3.8 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
46.4% /
38.9% |
29.9 /
24.0 |
| 4 |
NYG |
24 – 10 W |
10.0 |
47.2% /
37.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
7.3 /
5.8 |
28.6% /
44.4% |
20.0% /
11.1% |
3.0 /
4.3 |
71 /
63 |
37.3% /
46.9% |
38.0% /
39.7% |
42.7% /
24.8% |
5.2 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
49.3% /
28.6% |
31.3 /
23.0 |
| 5 |
HOU |
31 – 13 W |
17.1 |
56.3% /
30.4% |
6.3% /
8.7% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
8.0 /
3.4 |
33.3% /
50.0% |
23.1% /
28.6% |
2.5 /
4.2 |
71 /
60 |
44.4% /
43.5% |
43.7% /
35.0% |
37.7% /
33.6% |
5.0 /
3.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
54.9% /
23.3% |
28.6 /
28.3 |
| 7 |
@PHI |
10 – 20 L |
-7.6 |
31.9% /
42.9% |
12.8% /
0.0% |
2.4% /
7.1% |
4.0 /
4.9 |
46.4% /
33.3% |
25.0% /
22.2% |
3.4 /
3.8 |
75 /
55 |
35.3% /
39.0% |
37.3% /
38.2% |
36.4% /
26.7% |
3.8 /
4.4 |
4.0% /
3.6% |
37.3% /
49.1% |
37.7 /
29.2 |
| 8 |
@CHI |
10 – 20 L |
-10.2 |
45.2% /
53.1% |
11.9% /
3.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.8 /
7.7 |
38.9% /
41.4% |
5.6% /
31.0% |
3.2 /
5.4 |
60 /
61 |
48.9% /
46.8% |
43.3% /
47.5% |
38.0% /
53.1% |
4.3 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
30.0% /
47.5% |
23.3 /
21.7 |
| 9 |
DET |
16 – 22 L |
-2.7 |
57.1% /
47.2% |
4.8% /
2.8% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
6.2 /
5.9 |
64.0% /
32.0% |
24.0% /
40.0% |
3.1 /
3.9 |
67 /
61 |
64.7% /
38.3% |
59.7% /
41.0% |
25.8% /
45.0% |
5.0 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.3% /
41.0% |
34.1 /
21.5 |
| 10 |
@WAS |
20 – 26 L |
-3.4 |
60.5% /
58.8% |
7.0% /
2.9% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
7.6 |
42.9% /
51.7% |
42.9% /
6.9% |
2.2 /
4.4 |
64 /
63 |
57.7% /
59.2% |
54.7% /
55.6% |
45.6% /
28.3% |
5.2 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
32.8% /
46.0% |
28.5 /
28.2 |
| 11 |
ARI |
30 – 24 W |
6.4 |
43.3% /
35.7% |
6.7% /
9.5% |
0.0% /
5.3% |
4.8 /
3.7 |
40.0% /
57.1% |
24.0% /
14.3% |
2.9 /
4.8 |
55 /
70 |
43.6% /
48.2% |
41.8% /
44.3% |
29.4% /
35.5% |
4.0 /
4.1 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
45.5% /
40.0% |
30.1 /
32.6 |
| 12 |
@DET |
13 – 16 L |
-1.0 |
43.2% /
45.0% |
0.0% /
5.0% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
5.4 |
50.0% /
42.9% |
12.5% /
4.8% |
5.1 /
4.5 |
53 /
61 |
52.4% /
50.0% |
45.3% /
44.3% |
35.6% /
45.3% |
5.8 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
30.2% /
34.4% |
25.2 /
27.3 |
Dallas Cowboys
@ 
Minnesota Vikings