Game Analysis

Note: The Under was released to subscribers on Monday when the total was 51. It is now down to 48.5 and out of range for a play.

1-Star Best Bet – *Under (51) – MIAMI (-1.5) vs Dallas

· Miami’s entire starting offensive line was sidelined by the end of last week’s game against the Jets and we may see 5 backups across the line against a Cowboys defense leading the NFL with a 46.5% pressure rate.

· Tua Tagovailoa averaged a career-low 2.08 second time to throw in the win over New York even with starting tackles Terron Armstead and Austin Jackson getting the majority of pass-blocking snaps before leaving the game. I think Dolphins’ head coach Mike McDaniel is going to be incredibly cautious with Tagovailoa with so many backups on the offensive line against this Dallas pass rush.

· The Cowboys are surrendering a league-high 45.3% rush success rate and the Bills’ 17% run rate over expected last week was their highest in the last three seasons. Buffalo’s offense ran for 251 yards on Dallas, and I expect McDaniel’s approach to also be run-heavy.

· Miami wide receiver Tyreek Hill is averaging a league-high 4.10 yards per route run. The All-Pro missed the last game and he might suit up this Sunday, although he will likely be encumbered by an ankle sprain if he does play.

· Dak Prescott is averaging 0.39 EPA/play throws over the middle (6th) but he will struggle as the Dolphins are allowing -0.17 EPA/play throws over the middle (3rd).

· Miami CB Jalen Ramsey shadowed Jet WR Garrett Wilson last week and conceded only 1 target for 0 yards. The Dolphins’ defensive coordinator could employ Ramsey in shadow coverage again for this game to limit WR CeeDee Lamb, who is averaging 0.57 EPA/target (5th).

· Furthermore, Miami nickelback Kader Kohou is conceding just 0.78 yards per cover snap in the slot (4th) and could contain Lamb on the inside where he lines up for 55.4% of his routes.

· Dallas All-Pro RG Zack Martin left the last game with a thigh injury. Martin is pushing to be on the field this week, but it will be grueling across from interior defender Christian Wilkins, who has 50 pressures (8th).

· While Dallas has struggled against good teams, particularly on the road, the Cowboys are also 15-2 ATS following their last 17 losses, including 10 straight spread wins (5-1 ATS vs winning teams).

· Our model favors the Dolphins by 0.8 points, with a predicted total of 46.8 points.

The Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 51 (-115 or better) and a Strong Opinion down to 50 points.