Game Analysis
Dallas (-3) at CHICAGO
After a good performance on Thanksgiving, Mitchell Trubisky is now averaging 7.1 yards per pass play in two games against the Lions this season and just 4.9 yards per pass play in all other games. I expect Trubisky to go back to his normal sub-par level in this game. The Bears are targeting running backs on 27.3% of passes (4th-most), which is not a good strategy given that RB Tarik Cohen is gaining just 1.18 yards per route run (4th-worst). Wide receiver Allen Robinson has been the Bears best receiving option with 11 receptions with 20+ air yards (8th) but he will be neutralized by Cowboys’ top cornerback Byron Jones, who is allowing only 0.72 yards per cover snap (8th). DeMarcus Lawrence has a 26% pass rush win rate (5th) and the edge defender will wreak havoc on Thursday with starting right tackle Bobby Massie unavailable for the second-straight game. Lawrence will need to take advantage of his matchup with opposite edge rusher Robert Quinn (9.5 sacks (t-9th)) likely to be neutralized by left tackles Charles Leno, who has a 92% pass block win rate (10th).
The Bears chances to win this game rely on their defense to win their matchups against the Cowboys’ talented skill players. The Cowboys have one of the league’s best receiving duos with Amari Cooper averaging 2.48 yards per route run (4th) and Michael Gallup gaining 2.15 yards per route run (14th). Chicago’s pass defense ranks 8th by our numbers but they will drop slightly if starting cornerback Prince Amukamara (doubtful) is unable to suit up. I would normally point out the Cowboys 4th-rated ground game would be neutralized by a Bears rush defense ranked 4th, but backup linebacker Nick Kwiatkoski has about half the run stop rate as injured starter Danny Trevathan, which should allow Ezekiel Elliott to have better than expected success.
Dallas’s chance of making the playoffs would be about a coin flip if they lose in Chicago but our model has them as a 3.4-point favorite with a predicted total of 41.6. Dallas has struggled against winning teams in recent seasons, and particularly this season, but the Cowboys are 24-8-2 ATS against teams with a .500 or worse record. I advise passing this game, but I’d suggest Dallas in your pool if your line is -3 or less and flipping a coin if your pool line is -3.5.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.7
36.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
54.2%
47.4%
-
Sack Rate
3.3%
7.6%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
1.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.6%
21.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
40.8%
45.5%
-
NYPP
7.9
6.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.5
25.8
-
RB YPR
4.3
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
15.5%
19.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.6%
49.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
32.2%
43.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.5
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
66.2
62.5
-
Early Down Succ
54.7%
52.2%
-
Succ Rate
53.3%
48.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.0%
45.5%
-
Yards Per Play
6.5
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.7
29.6
-
Run Ratio
41.8%
41.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.5
29.3
-
Game Control
0.7
-0.7
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.2
38.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.6%
45.6%
-
Sack Rate
7.6%
5.7%
-
Int Rate
2.1%
1.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.3%
16.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.8%
36.8%
-
NYPP
5.4
6.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.2
26.1
-
RB YPR
3.3
3.4
-
Stuff Rate
26.2%
22.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.2%
44.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
23.0%
31.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.3
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
61.3
64.7
-
Early Down Succ
47.1%
49.1%
-
Succ Rate
43.6%
45.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
32.9%
36.3%
-
Yards Per Play
4.6
4.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.9
28.5
-
Run Ratio
38.0%
40.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.0
30.5
-
Game Control
0.5
-0.5
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
NYG |
35 – 17 W |
11.2 |
71.9% /
55.1% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
12.7 /
6.5 |
36.7% /
70.6% |
16.7% /
11.8% |
3.0 /
8.9 |
62 /
66 |
56.0% /
67.3% |
54.8% /
59.1% |
50.6% /
41.7% |
8.0 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
3.0% |
48.4% /
25.8% |
23.6 /
21.1 |
| 2 |
@WAS |
31 – 21 W |
4.6 |
61.3% /
57.9% |
3.2% /
2.6% |
3.3% /
0.0% |
8.4 /
5.5 |
64.7% /
41.2% |
8.8% /
17.6% |
6.3 /
2.8 |
65 /
55 |
64.2% /
59.5% |
63.1% /
52.7% |
43.5% /
22.4% |
7.3 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
52.3% /
30.9% |
19.3 /
30.7 |
| 3 |
MIA |
31 – 6 W |
11.1 |
48.5% /
40.9% |
3.0% /
6.8% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
4.8 |
67.6% /
37.5% |
2.9% /
29.2% |
6.9 /
3.0 |
67 /
68 |
60.7% /
46.0% |
58.2% /
39.7% |
56.9% /
31.4% |
7.1 /
4.2 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
50.7% /
35.3% |
26.1 /
28.7 |
| 4 |
@NO |
10 – 12 L |
-1.2 |
44.1% /
42.9% |
2.9% /
14.3% |
3.0% /
3.3% |
6.2 /
4.3 |
45.0% /
59.3% |
15.0% /
18.5% |
2.3 /
4.3 |
54 /
62 |
43.9% /
52.1% |
44.4% /
50.0% |
26.1% /
34.6% |
4.8 /
4.3 |
3.7% /
0.0% |
37.0% /
43.5% |
23.1 /
33.3 |
| 5 |
GB |
24 – 34 L |
-14.0 |
53.2% /
41.7% |
6.4% /
5.6% |
6.8% /
0.0% |
9.4 /
6.0 |
66.7% /
55.2% |
14.3% /
17.2% |
5.8 /
4.1 |
68 /
65 |
61.7% /
54.9% |
57.4% /
47.7% |
62.3% /
52.5% |
8.3 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
30.9% /
44.6% |
23.1 /
31.7 |
| 6 |
@NYJ |
22 – 24 L |
-7.9 |
56.1% /
55.9% |
2.4% /
5.9% |
0.0% /
3.1% |
6.6 /
9.6 |
47.1% /
30.0% |
23.5% /
10.0% |
3.8 /
2.8 |
75 /
54 |
50.9% /
54.8% |
52.0% /
46.3% |
22.1% /
56.8% |
5.3 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.3% /
37.0% |
26.7 /
25.3 |
| 7 |
PHI |
37 – 10 W |
15.2 |
60.0% /
44.8% |
10.0% /
10.3% |
3.7% /
3.8% |
7.1 /
5.8 |
44.4% /
42.9% |
16.7% /
21.4% |
5.3 /
4.1 |
66 /
57 |
49.0% /
45.7% |
51.5% /
43.9% |
39.6% /
47.0% |
6.1 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
5.3% |
54.5% /
49.1% |
41.7 /
18.8 |
| 9 |
@NYG |
37 – 18 W |
1.1 |
54.3% /
37.0% |
0.0% /
10.9% |
2.9% /
2.4% |
7.3 /
3.7 |
70.0% /
59.1% |
16.7% /
18.2% |
5.7 /
4.5 |
65 /
68 |
64.8% /
45.1% |
61.5% /
44.1% |
38.7% /
41.0% |
6.6 /
4.0 |
1.5% /
2.9% |
46.2% /
32.4% |
30.7 /
36.3 |
| 10 |
MIN |
24 – 28 L |
-5.3 |
54.2% /
63.6% |
2.1% /
3.0% |
2.1% /
0.0% |
8.2 /
6.4 |
40.9% /
50.0% |
22.7% /
19.4% |
2.3 /
4.3 |
70 /
69 |
49.1% /
55.6% |
50.0% /
56.5% |
45.1% /
44.5% |
6.3 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.4% /
52.2% |
27.3 /
22.7 |
| 11 |
@DET |
35 – 27 W |
2.6 |
59.6% /
41.4% |
2.1% /
10.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.2 /
6.6 |
45.8% /
57.1% |
12.5% /
21.4% |
3.1 /
4.3 |
71 /
57 |
56.4% /
51.2% |
54.9% /
49.1% |
41.7% /
63.1% |
7.2 /
5.5 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
33.8% /
49.1% |
20.5 /
29.0 |
| 12 |
@NE |
9 – 13 L |
-4.1 |
36.4% /
35.9% |
0.0% /
5.1% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
4.6 |
53.8% /
44.4% |
15.4% /
22.2% |
4.2 /
3.7 |
59 /
66 |
53.3% /
46.0% |
44.1% /
39.4% |
32.1% /
66.0% |
5.4 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.1% /
40.9% |
20.8 /
41.4 |
| 13 |
BUF |
15 – 26 L |
-4.9 |
50.9% /
51.7% |
7.5% /
13.8% |
2.0% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
8.0 |
36.8% /
44.1% |
21.1% /
32.4% |
5.4 /
3.6 |
72 /
63 |
46.4% /
47.8% |
47.2% /
47.6% |
33.6% /
44.7% |
5.9 /
5.7 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
26.4% /
54.0% |
23.5 /
33.1 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
GB |
3 – 10 L |
-2.9 |
34.0% /
40.0% |
10.0% /
14.3% |
2.2% /
0.0% |
4.2 /
4.7 |
40.0% /
22.7% |
26.7% /
36.4% |
3.1 /
2.1 |
65 /
57 |
41.7% /
39.5% |
35.4% /
33.3% |
38.2% /
53.1% |
3.9 /
3.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
23.1% /
38.6% |
22.7 /
30.9 |
| 2 |
@DEN |
16 – 14 W |
2.6 |
40.7% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
4.4 /
5.4 |
48.3% /
50.0% |
20.7% /
25.0% |
5.3 /
3.8 |
56 /
76 |
47.7% /
55.2% |
44.6% /
50.0% |
35.5% /
19.1% |
4.9 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
51.8% /
31.6% |
20.5 /
24.6 |
| 3 |
@WAS |
31 – 15 W |
13.9 |
55.9% /
57.4% |
8.8% /
8.5% |
3.2% /
7.0% |
6.1 /
6.1 |
41.7% /
57.1% |
20.8% /
19.0% |
3.8 /
3.3 |
58 /
68 |
46.7% /
61.8% |
50.0% /
57.4% |
28.5% /
25.3% |
5.1 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
2.9% |
41.4% /
30.9% |
36.9 /
28.7 |
| 4 |
MIN |
16 – 6 W |
10.0 |
55.9% /
40.5% |
2.9% /
14.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.8 /
4.3 |
27.3% /
37.5% |
21.2% /
25.0% |
2.2 /
2.5 |
67 /
58 |
43.8% /
39.5% |
41.8% /
39.7% |
23.0% /
36.9% |
4.0 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
3.4% |
49.3% /
27.6% |
32.4 /
22.3 |
| 5 |
@OAK |
21 – 24 L |
-4.6 |
50.0% /
53.1% |
11.8% /
0.0% |
6.7% /
0.0% |
5.7 /
7.2 |
41.2% /
64.1% |
35.3% /
5.1% |
2.5 /
4.3 |
51 /
71 |
50.0% /
61.4% |
47.1% /
59.2% |
27.1% /
28.1% |
4.6 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
2.8% |
33.3% /
54.9% |
31.7 /
32.0 |
| 7 |
NO |
25 – 36 L |
-8.2 |
44.6% /
48.7% |
3.6% /
2.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.2 /
7.0 |
28.6% /
54.3% |
28.6% /
14.3% |
2.4 /
4.3 |
63 /
74 |
49.0% /
54.4% |
42.9% /
51.4% |
11.1% /
42.9% |
4.0 /
5.7 |
3.2% /
0.0% |
11.1% /
47.3% |
26.1 /
39.5 |
| 8 |
LAC |
16 – 17 L |
2.7 |
41.0% /
43.3% |
10.3% /
3.3% |
2.9% /
3.4% |
5.8 /
6.5 |
47.4% /
16.7% |
28.9% /
50.0% |
4.3 /
3.0 |
77 /
42 |
45.9% /
40.6% |
44.2% /
35.7% |
60.1% /
35.5% |
5.0 /
5.5 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
49.4% /
28.6% |
30.7 /
34.0 |
| 9 |
@PHI |
14 – 22 L |
-7.7 |
25.0% /
51.2% |
12.5% /
9.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.3 /
5.3 |
50.0% /
51.4% |
33.3% /
14.3% |
3.4 /
4.2 |
42 /
78 |
40.6% /
53.4% |
35.7% /
51.3% |
61.0% /
20.9% |
3.9 /
4.8 |
2.4% /
0.0% |
42.9% /
44.9% |
28.9 /
26.9 |
| 10 |
DET |
20 – 13 W |
4.3 |
42.9% /
37.5% |
17.9% /
4.2% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
5.2 /
5.4 |
41.7% /
48.1% |
25.0% /
22.2% |
3.4 /
3.6 |
52 /
75 |
48.7% /
44.4% |
42.3% /
41.3% |
25.2% /
28.3% |
4.3 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
46.2% /
36.0% |
25.8 /
30.0 |
| 11 |
@LA |
7 – 17 L |
-3.8 |
40.0% /
50.0% |
6.0% /
0.0% |
2.1% /
5.6% |
3.9 /
9.6 |
50.0% /
44.1% |
20.8% /
17.6% |
3.1 /
3.2 |
74 /
52 |
47.3% /
52.5% |
43.2% /
46.2% |
9.0% /
54.1% |
3.6 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
32.4% /
65.4% |
24.8 /
33.5 |
| 12 |
NYG |
19 – 14 W |
3.2 |
44.2% /
35.1% |
4.7% /
2.7% |
4.9% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
3.6 |
30.8% /
38.1% |
30.8% /
23.8% |
2.5 /
5.2 |
69 /
58 |
44.2% /
42.9% |
39.1% /
36.2% |
49.0% /
43.6% |
4.9 /
4.2 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
37.7% /
36.2% |
31.7 /
32.9 |
| 13 |
@DET |
24 – 20 W |
-3.8 |
61.5% /
40.0% |
2.6% /
5.0% |
2.6% /
2.6% |
8.5 /
6.5 |
47.8% /
51.9% |
21.7% /
18.5% |
3.8 /
3.9 |
62 /
67 |
60.0% /
44.0% |
56.5% /
44.8% |
26.5% /
47.5% |
6.8 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.1% /
40.3% |
24.1 /
31.1 |
Dallas Cowboys
@ 
Chicago Bears