Dallas Cowboys @

Chicago Bears

Thu, Dec 5
5:20 PM Pacific
Rotation: 101
Odds: Chicago Bears +3, Total: 43.5

Game Analysis

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Dallas (-3) at CHICAGO

After a good performance on Thanksgiving, Mitchell Trubisky is now averaging 7.1 yards per pass play in two games against the Lions this season and just 4.9 yards per pass play in all other games. I expect Trubisky to go back to his normal sub-par level in this game. The Bears are targeting running backs on 27.3% of passes (4th-most), which is not a good strategy given that RB Tarik Cohen is gaining just 1.18 yards per route run (4th-worst). Wide receiver Allen Robinson has been the Bears best receiving option with 11 receptions with 20+ air yards (8th) but he will be neutralized by Cowboys’ top cornerback Byron Jones, who is allowing only 0.72 yards per cover snap (8th). DeMarcus Lawrence has a 26% pass rush win rate (5th) and the edge defender will wreak havoc on Thursday with starting right tackle Bobby Massie unavailable for the second-straight game. Lawrence will need to take advantage of his matchup with opposite edge rusher Robert Quinn (9.5 sacks (t-9th)) likely to be neutralized by left tackles Charles Leno, who has a 92% pass block win rate (10th).

The Bears chances to win this game rely on their defense to win their matchups against the Cowboys’ talented skill players. The Cowboys have one of the league’s best receiving duos with Amari Cooper averaging 2.48 yards per route run (4th) and Michael Gallup gaining 2.15 yards per route run (14th). Chicago’s pass defense ranks 8th by our numbers but they will drop slightly if starting cornerback Prince Amukamara (doubtful) is unable to suit up. I would normally point out the Cowboys 4th-rated ground game would be neutralized by a Bears rush defense ranked 4th, but backup linebacker Nick Kwiatkoski has about half the run stop rate as injured starter Danny Trevathan, which should allow Ezekiel Elliott to have better than expected success.

Dallas’s chance of making the playoffs would be about a coin flip if they lose in Chicago but our model has them as a 3.4-point favorite with a predicted total of 41.6. Dallas has struggled against winning teams in recent seasons, and particularly this season, but the Cowboys are 24-8-2 ATS against teams with a .500 or worse record. I advise passing this game, but I’d suggest Dallas in your pool if your line is -3 or less and flipping a coin if your pool line is -3.5.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Cowboys
  • Bears


  • Pass Plays 38.7 36.8
  • Succ Pass Plays 54.2% 47.4%
  • Sack Rate 3.3% 7.6%
  • Int Rate 2.5% 1.1%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.6% 21.4%
  • Big Pass Yards 40.8% 45.5%
  • NYPP 7.9 6.0


  • Rush Plays 27.5 25.8
  • RB YPR 4.3 4.0
  • Stuff Rate 15.5% 19.9%
  • Succ Rush Plays 51.6% 49.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 32.2% 43.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.5 4.2


  • All Snaps 66.2 62.5
  • Early Down Succ 54.7% 52.2%
  • Succ Rate 53.3% 48.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 41.0% 45.5%
  • Yards Per Play 6.5 5.2
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 1.1%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 26.7 29.6
  • Run Ratio 41.8% 41.2%
  • Starting Field Pos 25.5 29.3
  • Game Control 0.7 -0.7
  • Points 25.8 19.7
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