Game Analysis

Dallas (-10.5) vs CAROLINA

· Dallas running back Tony Pollard has not been able to fill the lead-back role after the departure of Ezekiel Elliott. Pollard has only a 9% missed tackle forced rate in 2023 compared to a career average of 20%. Pollard just can’t get into space and has hit 15 mph on just 17% of his touches this year while his career average is 26%.

· The Cowboys have responded by letting Dak Prescott throw the ball more often. Dallas had a 48% pass rate on first down in quarters 1 through 3 for the first five weeks of the season and it has jumped to 64% in the last four games.

· Prescott rewarded the early down passing by averaging 8.3 yppp since week 6.

· Prescott has a league-high 60.0% success rate versus man coverage, but the Panthers are a zone defense. Carolina has an 89.5% zone coverage rate (2nd-highest) and Prescott’s yards per attempt against a zone is just 74% of his yards per attempt versus man coverage (29th).

· Dallas RT Terence Steele ranks 8th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency, and he will struggle across from edge defender Brian Burns, who leads the Panthers with 21 pressures.

· Bryce Young continues to melt under pressure, as he averaged -0.4 yppp without a clean pocket last week. The Cowboys have a league-high 47.0% pressure rate, but their aggressiveness could backfire on Sunday.

· Dallas has a 36.7% blitz rate (8th-highest) and Carolina’s offense wants defenses to blitz to add variance because they can’t beat anyone with talent straight up. The Panthers are averaging 31% more yards per attempt versus the blitz this year than a standard pass rush (2nd-largest gap).

· Carolina WR Adam Thielen 60% success rate (9th) and he has a favorable matchup on the inside against nickelback Jourdan Lewis, who is surrendering 1.36 yards per slot cover snap (4th-worst).

· Our model favors the Cowboys by 13.5 points and the Cowboys tend to beat up on lesser teams (now 52-26-2 ATS facing a team with a win percentage of .500 or less in the Dak era) but the Cowboys also apply to an 18-60-1 ATS road favorite letdown situation that is based on last week’s 49-17 home win over the Giants. While Dallas is generally good against bad teams they lost straight up as a huge favorite at Arizona early in the season when applying to the same 18-60-1 ATS situation. I still used Dallas in my spread pool. The predicted total is 44.6 points.