Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *BUFFALO (-1.5) over Dallas

· Dak Prescott threw into a tight window on a season-high 31% of attempts for 99 yards in the win against the Eagles last Sunday night. Getting 37% of a quarterback’s passing yards in tight windows isn’t repeatable. Prescott had the most tight window passing yards by a quarterback in a game this season versus Philadelphia’s defense and I expect him to struggle this week.

· The Bills have an 82.9% zone coverage rate (6th-highest) and Prescott’s yards per attempt against a zone is a league-low 73% of his yards per attempt versus man coverage.

· Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb has a 59% success rate (9th) but he will be limited on the inside across from nickelback Taron Johnson, who is conceding only 0.75 yards per cover snap in the slot (4th).

· Buffalo’s defense is conceding only 0.08 EPA/target to tight ends (6th) and they will limit TE Jake Ferguson, who is averaging 1.48 yards per route run (10th).

· Dallas RT Terence Steele has surrendered 44 pressures (3rd-most) and he will struggle against edge defender Greg Rousseau, who ranks 15th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· The Bills’ 12 personnel usage was the highest since week 3 at 31% last week with TE Dawson Knox back from wrist surgery. The Cowboys’ defense allows 0.14 EPA/dropback more versus 12 personnel than 11 personnel this season.

· Buffalo TE Dalton Kincaid has a 61% success rate (5th) and he has a favorable matchup along with Knox against a Dallas defense surrendering 0.27 EPA/target to tight ends (25th).

· The Bills starters on the offensive line have gotten 97% of the snaps this year and they rank 5th in pass blocking efficiency. The Cowboys have a league-high 46.1% pressure rate, but it will be lower this week versus the Bills.

· Josh Allen is an extremely efficient runner, averaging 5.6 yards per carry in his career, but Buffalo stated before the season that they didn’t want to run the Pro Bowl quarterback as much – and kept their word initially as he averaged just 3.7 carries in the first 6 games. However, the Bills have thrown caution out the window and Allen has averaged 7.1 rushing attempts per game since 7. Allen had a season-high 10 runs last week in Kansas City. Allen has at least two designed quarterback runs in every game with new offensive coordinator Joe Brady after doing so only twice in the first 10 weeks. That obviously makes the Bills’ offense better.

· Our model favors the Bills by 2.0 with a predicted total of 51.9 points, but Dallas has a history of playing relatively worse against better competition- especially on the road (just 2-11 ATS in road games in the Dak Prescott era when coming off a win and visiting a team with a winning record, including 0-2 this season). Dallas also applies to a 30-83-2 ATS road letdown situation based on last week’s convincing win over division rival Philadelphia, and the Bills apply to an 86-24-1 ATS home momentum situation.

Buffalo is a 1-Star Best Bet at -2 -115 or better.