Game Analysis

Lean – Over (38) – Cleveland (-2.5) vs NY JETS

• New York’s defense was due to regress after allowing 27.6 points per game in the first half of the season (27th) while conceding just a 42.2% success rate (8th).
• However, the Jets decided to blow it up by trading CB Sauce Gardner and interior defender Quinnen Williams, who has 13 run stuffs (2nd). Williams has beaten a league-high 57 double teams for a pressure since 2022.
• Gardner and Williams are worth a combined 2.3 points by our numbers, and New York’s defense is one of the worst in the NFL without them.
• That said, the Jets defense likely won’t be exposed this week due to bad weather and a favorable matchup. The Browns are targeting tight ends on 33.6% of passes (3rd-most), but they will be contained as New York’s defense is allowing just a 47% success rate to opposing tight ends (5th).
• The Jets are conceding -0.19 EPA/target to opposing running backs (7th), and they will limit the screen game to RB Dylan Sampson, who is gaining 1.90 yards per route run (5th).
• Cleveland’s offense has a league-low 51 explosive plays, but they will need to look downfield, if possible, in the rain to beat New York’s defense. Browns WR Cedric Tillman will be back on the field, and he is averaging 0.46 more EPA/target than backup WR Isaiah Bond.
• The Jets’ offense flows through the running backs, who are being targeted on 23.0% of passes (4th-most) and with a 45.2% rush success rate (8th).
• The Browns are allowing -0.34 EPA/target to opposing running backs (2nd) and only -0.21 EPA/rush (2nd), but those numbers might change without LB Carson Schwesinger, who has a 7.2% run stop rate (19th). Backup linebacker Jerome Baker has only a 1.3% run stop rate.
• Schwesinger is worth 0.4 points to Cleveland’s defense according to our metrics, but his loss could be amplified in this matchup because New York’s offense focuses on the running backs and tight ends.
• Our model favors the Browns by 1.6 points with a predicted total of 40.3 points even with -1.5 points due to projected bad weather factored in.