Game Analysis

Cleveland (-2.5) vs HOUSTON

· Cleveland’s win last week against Chicago was the Browns’ 4th win of the season in a game where their win probability was below 15% at some point in the game. Cleveland’s good fortunes has them in good position to make the playoffs (80%).

· Cleveland’s offensive line was down 4 starters after LG Joel Bitonio went out and the Bears took advantage by sacking Joe Flacco 4 times. The Browns might get back C Ethan Pocic, who ranks 5th in pass-blocking efficiency. However, Bitonio’s absence is untimely for Cleveland’s offense as Texans interior defender Maliek Collins has 38 pressures (20th).

· Houston’s defense will likely be without edge rusher Will Anderson, who has 51 pressures (20th). The rookie is worth 0.6 points by our numbers.

· The Texans also likely won’t have starting safety Jimmie Ward on the field and Browns TE David Njoku is averaging 1.93 yards per route run in the last three games with Flacco (4th).

· I do not expect CJ Stroud to suit up on Sunday and we should see another start for Case Keenum, who averaged 5.2 yppp last week in Tennessee without starting wide receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell.

· Dell averaged 2.22 yards per route run (13th) and is out again, but Collins could return this week. Collins is averaging 0.63 EPA/target (4th) and is worth about a point to Houston’s offense according to our metrics.

· Cleveland’s defense is surrendering 0.41 EPA/dropback on throws over the middle (27th) and the Browns will likely be without starting safeties Grant Delpit and Juan Thornhill this week. Houston’s offense is averaging 0.66 EPA/play on throws over the middle (2nd) and Keenum will find Collins those passes if he is on the field.

· Texans TE Dalton Schultz is averaging 0.33 EPA/target (5th) and he will have a favorable matchup without Cleveland’s starting safeties as well.

· Houston RT George Fant will likely be back for this game to limit edge defender Za’Darius Smith, who ranks 19th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Browns edge rusher Myles Garrett has 69 pressures (8th) and he will battle with left tackle Laremy Tunsil, who ranks 8th in pass-blocking efficiency.

· Our model makes Cleveland a 1.6-point favorite with a predicted total of 42.9, but Houston applies to a 22-67-1 ATS letdown situation based on last week’s upset win over a division rival.