Game Analysis

Lean – Over (44.5) – Cleveland (-2.5) vs HOUSTON

Strong Opinion Prop – Cleveland WR Elijah Moore Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (at 45 or less)

(over 3.5 receptions if you don’t have a receiving yards prop at your book)

· Cleveland won when these teams met in week 16 and outgained Houston by 1.9 yppl but the Texans did not have starting edge rusher Will Anderson, starting linebacker Blake Cashman, or CJ Stroud.

· Stroud averaged 7.0 yppp in his rookie year (3rd) while backup quarterback Case Keenum averaged just 3.9 yppp in two starts.

· Quarterbacks making their first playoff start are 22-36-1 ATS since 2002 and Stroud could struggle versus a Browns defense conceding a league-low -0.19 EPA/dropback.

· Cleveland Pro Bowl CB Denzel Ward is allowing 13% fewer completions versus expectation when targeted (2nd) and he will limit WR Nico Collins, who is averaging 0.57 EPA/target (2nd).

· Houston’s other two starting wide receivers Noah Brown and Robert Woods missed last week and are possibly out again on Saturday. Brown and Woods combined to average 1.40 yards per route run compared to backup wide receivers John Metchie and Xavier Hutchinson combined to average 0.73 yards per route run.

· Texans TE Dalton Schultz is averaging 0.26 EPA/target (6th) but he will be contained as the Browns are conceding only a 44% success rate to tight ends (2nd).

· Stroud could have time to create plays out of structure as LT Laremy Tunsil ranks 7th in pass blocking efficiency and should neutralize Cleveland edge defender Myles Garrett, whose 86 pressures rank 7th.

· Houston’s defense is allowing a league-low 33.3% rush success rate and I expect Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski to continue riding Joe Flacco, who is averaging 42.4 dropbacks per start.

· Flacco is averaging 8.8 yards per attempt versus the blitz, but it falls to 7.7 yards per attempt against a standard pass rush and the extra coverage defenders will test Flacco this week against a Texans defense with a 78.9% standard pass rush rate (4th-highest).

· Cleveland TE David Njoku averaged a league-leading 2.38 yards per route run in his 5 games with Flacco, but Houston’s defense is allowing 0.21 EPA/target fewer versus tight ends than wide receivers.

· Browns WR Amari Cooper is averaging 2.31 yards per route run (13th) and he will be challenged by CB Steven Nelson, who is one of 25 qualifying cornerbacks conceding less than a yard per cover snap.

· Cleveland’s starting right tackle to begin the season was Jack Conklin, who ranked 4th in pass-blocking efficiency in 2022. Conklin was sidelined for the year in week 1 with a torn ACL and MCL in his left knee. Browns backup RT Dawand Jones ranked 19th in pass blocking efficiency but he is also out for the postseason. Texans edge defender Will Anderson ranks 14th in pass-rushing efficiency and he will wreak havoc across from 3rd string RT James Hudson.

· Houston edge rusher Jonathan Greenard has 12.5 sacks (10th) and he could be back on the field this week to go against backup LT Geron Christian, who ranks 50th in pass-blocking efficiency out of 57 qualifiers.

· Flacco will not have to worry as much about the pass rush up the middle as only 43.1% of Cleveland’s pressures were at fault of the interior offensive line (7th-fewest) and they will shut down interior defender Maliek Collins and Sheldon Rankins. Collins had 45 pressures this year (19th) and Rankins ranked 17th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Our model favors the Browns by 1.2 points, with a predicted total of 47.4 points.