Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Over (44 -105) – SAN FRANCISCO (-5) vs Cincinnati

· Brock Purdy has led the Niners just 17 points in each of the last two games after reaching 30 points in 9 of his first 10 starts. I don’t expect Kyle Shanahan and Purdy to be muted again back at home this week.

· San Francisco’s offense will not have Deebo Samuel once more, but Shanahan will comfortably make do with his other receivers in favorable matchups. TE George Kittle has a 25.5% target rate and is averaging 79.0 yards in four games without Samuel since the 49ers traded for Christian McCaffrey last season and Cincinnati’s defense is surrendering 0.25 EPA/target to tight ends (26th).

· The Bengals are allowing a 48% pass success rate to running backs (26th) and they will struggle versus McCaffrey, whose 0.52 EPA/target leads all running backs.

· Christian McCaffrey will also be a force on the ground as Cincinnati’s defense ranks 28th in EPA/rush allowed.

· The 49ers surrendered 16.8 yppp on passes with 10+ air yards to a Vikings offense last week without All-Pro WR Justin Jefferson. Joe Burrow’s average depth of target is 0.9 yards less this season than it was last year, and I expect him to increase his air yards against San Francisco’s defense with the continued improvement of his calf only projected to get better after the bye week.

· Bengals WR Tee Higgins fractured rib is improving as well, and he should get plenty of deep targets down the sideline on Sunday. Higgins had 16 contested receptions in 2022 (5th).

· Cincinnati is 11-0-1 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or more the last 3 seasons (8-4 straight up).

· Our model favors the 49ers by 5.9 points, with a predicted total of 50.5 points.

The Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 45 points or less.