Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – 6-point Teaser (-120) – Pittsburgh (+8.5) with Atlanta +8

The Teaser Best Bet is now out of range because Atlanta is -1.

The alternate play is a 1-Star Best Bet on Pittsburgh +2 (to +1.5)

PITTSBURGH (+2.5) over Cincinnati

· Mike Tomlin announced that Mason Rudolph will take over under center and I don’t believe the change will be a major downgrade for Pittsburgh’s offense as the Steelers are averaging 5.3 yards per pass play this season and Mason Rudolph’s career average is 5.5 yppp.

· Pittsburgh LT Dan Moore has surrendered 48 pressures (2nd-most) and he will struggle versus edge defender Trey Hendrickson, who ranks 4th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· However, the Bengals will be without DJ Reader, who has been ruled out for the remainder of the season with a quad injury and leads Cincinnati’s defensive linemen with 18 run stops.

· Steelers running backs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren combined for 148 yards on 28 runs versus the Bengals in week 12 and Pittsburgh’s ground game will lead the charge once more as Cincinnati’s defense is surrendering a 42.5% rush success rate (28th) and should be worse without Reader.

· Furthermore, the Bengals are allowing a 45% pass success rate to running backs (26th) and they will struggle to contain screens to RB Jaylen Warren, who is averaging 1.46 yards per route run (5th).

· Jake Browning will not have WR Ja’Marr Chase suited up this week due to an AC joint sprain. Chase is averaging 0.49 EPA/target (6th) and is worth a point to the offense.

· Cincinnati WR Tee Higgins had 8 targets with at least 10 air yards last week but he will be limited downfield by CB Joey Porter, who is conceding just 0.74 yards per cover snap (8th).

· Browning will not get support from his ground game either as Pittsburgh’s defense is conceding just a 35.7% rush success rate (5th).

· Our model favors the Steelers by 1.2 points, with a predicted total of 35.6 points, and the Steelers apply to a 42-8-1 ATS bounce-back situation based on their recent bad run.