Game Analysis

KANSAS CITY (-7) vs Cincinnati

· Kansas City’s offense is averaging only 21.7 points per game and their worst season before 2023 with Patrick Mahomes was 27.3 points per game.

· The Chiefs’ offense clearly can’t find any rhythm as Patrick Mahomes’ 23 dropbacks not throwing to his first read in last week’s loss to the Raiders were the most by a quarterback this year.

· Kansas City backup LT Wanya Morris surrendered 10 pressures last game and it could be worse on Sunday across from edge defender Trey Hendrickson, who ranks 2nd in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Bengals nickelback Mike Hilton is conceding 1.04 yards per cover snap in the slot (10th) and he will contain WR Rashee Rice, who is gaining 2.46 yards per route run in the slot (4th).

· Chiefs TE Travis Kelce only has 72 yards combined in the last two weeks, but he will bounce back in this game as Cincinnati’s defense is surrendering a 63% success rate to tight ends (31st). Kelce is averaging 0.42 EPA/target (4th) even after the recent dip in performance.

· The Bengals offense could be getting back WR Ja’Marr Chase while Kansas City’s defense might be without CB L’Jarius Sneed. For now I’ll assume Chase will play and that Sneed is out. However, a swap in the availability of those two players would result in a 2-point boost to Cincinnati’s offense according to our metrics.

· Chase is averaging 0.49 EPA/target (5th).

· Sneed limited All-Pro WR Davante Adams to four yards on six targets last week and is conceding just 0.75 yards per cover snap this season (10th).

· Our model favors the Chiefs by 8.8 points (down to 6.8 if Chase is out for Cincy and Sneed is in for KC) with a predicted total of 45.5 points. Cincy applies to a 72-25-4 ATS bounce-back situation based on their 23-point loss as a favorite at Pittsburgh and a 219-133-6 Under situation also applies.