Game Analysis

JACKSONVILLE (-8.5) over Cincinnati

Lean – Over (38.5)

· Jacksonville’s offense is finally throwing the ball downfield as Trevor Lawrence has at least 130 yards on passes with 10+ air yards in 3 of the last 4 games after doing so only twice in the first 7 weeks.

· Lawrence is targeting tight ends on 27.4% of passes (5th-most) and Jaguars TE Evan Engram is averaging 1.43 yards per route run (10th). Engram has a favorable matchup versus a Bengals’ defense allowing a league-high 63% success rate to tight ends and possibly will be without starting LB Logan Wilson.

· Wilson’s sprained left ankle will also leave the door open for running back Travis Etienne, who has 36 receptions (9th). Cincinnati’s defense is allowing a 42.9% rush success rate (27th) and they will also struggle versus Etienne on the ground.

· Bengals edge defender Trey Hendrickson ranks 3rd in pass-rushing efficiency and Jacksonville LT Cam Robinson is out. However, Walker Little ranked 6th in pass-blocking efficiency the first month of the season at left tackle when Robinson was suspended, and Little is capable of limiting Hendrickson. The Jaguars traded for Ezra Cleveland to step in at left guard for Little. Cleveland has conceded only a 3.9% pressure rate this season (mostly with the Vikings).

· Jake Browning’s only touchdown drive in his first start was the result of a fluke tipped pass for a 31-yard gain by Ja’Marr Chase and he averaged only 4.7 yppp on his other 29 pass plays versus Pittsburgh.

· Jacksonville backup CB Montaric Brown is surrendering 1.55 yards per cover snap, ranking 56th out of 62 qualifying cornerbacks, but they could get starting CB Tyson Cambell back on the field Monday night to contain Chase.

· Cincinnati LT Orlando Brown ranks 6th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency and he will struggle versus edge defender Josh Allen, who had a career-high 12 pressures against the Texans. Allen ranks 3rd in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Our model favors Jacksonville by 9.4 points, with a predicted total of 41.2 points, and the Jaguars apply to a 78-29-1 ATS Monday night home team situation. I think the fair line is 10.5 points.