Game Analysis

Cincinnati (-7.5/-7) at DALLAS

· Cowboys QB Dak Prescott had surgery on his right thumb and is expected to miss 6-8 weeks. Our metrics suggest Prescott is 6.5 points better than backup quarterback Cooper Rush.

· Rush played 113 snaps last season and threw for over 8 yppp, the majority of which came on the road in Minnesota. However, the Dallas supporting cast on offense is much worse at this point in 2022.

· The Cowboys no longer have WR Armari Cooper and they have cluster injuries to their remaining wide receivers. Pro Bowl LT Tyron Smith is out as well as starting LG Connor McGovern. 

· Backup rookie LT Tyler Smith and backup LG Matt Farniok surrendered 8 pressures last Sunday night. Bengals edge defender Trey Hendrickson led the NFL in pass rushing efficiency last season and he will be salivating on that side of the field.

· Joe Burrow only threw the ball twice from under center which made Cincinnati’s wide-zone run game extremely predictable in week 1 and they finished last in our rushing metrics. The Bengals had just a 7% success rate running the ball versus 7 or 8 players in the box.

· However, the Bengals might not need the ground game on Sunday with the advantages they are likely to have throwing the ball. Burrow threw 3 interceptions and took 3 sacks while averaging -0.29 EPA/dropback versus Cover 2 in week 1 but Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn is unlikely to utilize Cover 2 in this game which should give Burrow more opportunities to stretch the field vertically.

· WR Ja’Marr Chase caught 10 passes for 129 yards and a touchdown last week. Chase has 15 receptions on passes with 20+ air yards since the start of last season and no cornerback gambles more than Trevon Diggs.

· Cincinnati WR Tee Higgins is iffy this week with a concussion, but right now we’ll mark him in. Higgins is worth 0.7 points according to our metrics if he is unable to go.

· Our model has the Bengals by 5.4 with a predicted total of 40.6.