Cincinnati Bengals @

Chicago Bears

Sat, Sep 18
9:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 273
Odds: Chicago Bears -1.5, Total: 45

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – CHICAGO (-1.5) over Cincinnati

Joe Burrow led the league in dropbacks before tearing his ACL last year, but it seems that Zac Taylor is easing his young QB back into action. Burrow had just 27 passing attempts despite playing four quarters and nearly an entire overtime period. The Bengals’ passing rate was nearly 20% lower than the league average after controlling for the pre-snap situation according to our metrics. Taylor might be cautious again on Sunday against this Bears front. Center Trey Hopkins allowed two sacks in week 1 and will likely get eaten up by interior defender Akiem Hicks (9th in pressures last year).

Bengals CB Chidobe Awuzie conceded only two receptions for 26 yards despite being targeted on seven occasions last week and I expect the offseason acquisition to put up a fight against Bears’ star WR Allen Robinson. Safety Ricardo Allen allowed just one reception for 0 yards in 20 coverage snaps but he is now out with a broken hand and a hamstring strain.

Andy Dalton averaged only 4.5 air yards per attempt against the Rams and I think Chicago’s offense will have to play it conservative again in this matchup. The Bears could be down to third string left tackle Elijah Wilkinson if Jason Peters can’t recover from his quad injury. Either Wilkinson or a banged-up Peters will likely struggle to contain Bengals’ edge rusher Trey Hendrickson, who had five pressures against the Vikings. Chicago will likely lean on their ground game that rated 4th in our numbers last week.

There appears to have been an overreaction to last week’s results, as our model favors the Bears by 4.6 points, with a predicted total of 44.8 points, and Chicago is a Strong Opinion at -2 or less.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Bengals
  • Bears


  • Pass Plays 32.0 53.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 46.9% 43.4%
  • Sack Rate 15.6% 5.7%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 15.4% 10.2%
  • Big Pass Yards 42.1% 35.9%
  • NYPP 8.2 6.8


  • Rush Plays 36.0 22.0
  • RB YPR 4.2 3.0
  • Stuff Rate 25.0% 45.5%
  • Succ Rush Plays 52.8% 36.4%
  • Big Rush Yards 36.2% 44.8%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.1 3.0


  • All Snaps 68.0 75.0
  • Early Down Succ 60.4% 41.1%
  • Succ Rate 50.0% 41.3%
  • Big Yards Rate 40.0% 37.3%
  • Yards Per Play 6.0 5.7
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 1.3%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 30.7 28.2
  • Run Ratio 52.9% 29.3%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
  • Game Control 3.4 -3.4
  • Points 27.0 24.0
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