Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – CHICAGO (-1.5) over Cincinnati

Joe Burrow led the league in dropbacks before tearing his ACL last year, but it seems that Zac Taylor is easing his young QB back into action. Burrow had just 27 passing attempts despite playing four quarters and nearly an entire overtime period. The Bengals’ passing rate was nearly 20% lower than the league average after controlling for the pre-snap situation according to our metrics. Taylor might be cautious again on Sunday against this Bears front. Center Trey Hopkins allowed two sacks in week 1 and will likely get eaten up by interior defender Akiem Hicks (9th in pressures last year).

Bengals CB Chidobe Awuzie conceded only two receptions for 26 yards despite being targeted on seven occasions last week and I expect the offseason acquisition to put up a fight against Bears’ star WR Allen Robinson. Safety Ricardo Allen allowed just one reception for 0 yards in 20 coverage snaps but he is now out with a broken hand and a hamstring strain.

Andy Dalton averaged only 4.5 air yards per attempt against the Rams and I think Chicago’s offense will have to play it conservative again in this matchup. The Bears could be down to third string left tackle Elijah Wilkinson if Jason Peters can’t recover from his quad injury. Either Wilkinson or a banged-up Peters will likely struggle to contain Bengals’ edge rusher Trey Hendrickson, who had five pressures against the Vikings. Chicago will likely lean on their ground game that rated 4th in our numbers last week.

There appears to have been an overreaction to last week’s results, as our model favors the Bears by 4.6 points, with a predicted total of 44.8 points, and Chicago is a Strong Opinion at -2 or less.