Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – TAMPA BAY (-12.5) over Chicago

The Bears have only a 49.4% pass play rate (31st) but that will almost certainly increase during this game because no one is running on the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay’s rush defense ranks 3^rd in the league and is spearheaded by interior defender Vita Vea, who has a 15.9% run stop rate.

Justin Fields averaged 12.7 air yards per attempt last week and should continue looking deep in this matchup as the Buccaneers will be without three cornerbacks. Tampa Bay’s defense has the speed to close on the underneath routes and conceded just 24 yards after the catch to the Eagles wide receivers and tight ends last Thursday.

Chicago backup RT Elijah Wilkinson surrendered a 13.5% pressure rate last week and will struggle versus edge defender Shaquil Barrett, who ranks 11th in pass rushing efficiency.

Tom Brady had just two deep passing attempts in Philadelphia, but he might get the vertical game going this week. Mike Evans has 5 receptions with at least 20 air yards (5th) and Bears CB Jaylon Johnson has an average depth of target allowed of 17.2 yards. Johnson had conceded only 137 yards in the first five games but had to guard Davante Adams last Sunday and allowed 92 yards.

Pro Bowl edge defender Khalil Mack has 6 sacks (8th) but he will be limited by Buccaneers RT Tristan Wirfs, who leads all tackles in pass blocking efficiency.

Our model makes Tampa Bay a 13.6-point favorite with a predicted total of 45.7 points.

Team Stats
Game Log

Bears
Buccaneers

CHI

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 29.57 34.57
Succ Pass Plays 41.2% 47.1%
Sack Rate 12.5% 8.3%
Int Rate 3.7% 1.8%
Deep Pass Rate 17.1% 20.6%
Big Pass Yards 24.3% 38.3%
NYPP 4.11 6.55

Rush

Rush Plays 29.14 27.71
RB YPR 4.24 4.20
Stuff Rate 27.1% 22.5%
Succ Rush Plays 50.1% 50.9%
Big Rush Yards 41.5% 33.6%
Yards Per Rush 4.47 4.21

Game

All Snaps 58.71 62.29
Early Down Succ 50.8% 52.2%
Succ Rate 45.0% 48.6%
Big Yards Rate 31.6% 39.3%
Yards Per Play 4.27 5.53
Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 0.9%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.68 29.80
Run Ratio 49.2% 44.2%
Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
Game Control -2.72 2.72

Points 14.00 23.57

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@LA	14 – 34 L	-10.93	55.8% / 55.6%	7.0% / 3.7%	2.5% / 0.0%	4.37 / 11.56	61.5% / 47.8%	26.9% / 34.8%	5.15 / 3.22	69 / 50	66.0% / 51.4%	58.0% / 52.0%	18.6% / 44.3%	4.67 / 7.72	1.4% / 0.0%	37.7% / 46.0%	0.00 / 0.00
2	CIN	17 – 20 L	6.62	25.9% / 41.2%	11.1% / 11.8%	4.2% / 10.0%	3.07 / 5.26	41.2% / 40.0%	32.4% / 15.0%	3.62 / 3.45	61 / 54	34.9% / 42.1%	34.4% / 40.7%	28.0% / 26.8%	3.38 / 4.59	0.0% / 1.9%	55.7% / 37.0%	0.00 / 0.00
3	@CLV	6 – 26 L	-5.84	13.8% / 47.2%	31.0% / 13.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	0.03 / 5.64	38.5% / 42.9%	23.1% / 21.4%	3.54 / 5.12	42 / 78	29.6% / 45.6%	21.4% / 44.9%	14.0% / 43.8%	1.12 / 5.36	0.0% / 0.0%	31.0% / 53.8%	0.00 / 0.00
4	DET	24 – 14 W	11.79	50.0% / 50.0%	5.6% / 9.5%	5.9% / 0.0%	10.28 / 6.14	53.8% / 52.0%	23.1% / 20.0%	4.82 / 3.60	57 / 67	59.6% / 56.9%	52.6% / 50.7%	65.5% / 40.1%	6.54 / 5.19	0.0% / 3.0%	68.4% / 37.3%	0.00 / 0.00
5	@LV	20 – 9 W	5.61	47.8% / 42.1%	8.7% / 7.9%	0.0% / 2.9%	4.74 / 4.95	45.9% / 54.5%	37.8% / 27.3%	3.86 / 3.23	60 / 60	48.9% / 55.0%	46.7% / 46.7%	9.5% / 24.9%	4.20 / 4.32	0.0% / 0.0%	61.7% / 36.7%	0.00 / 0.00
6	GB	14 – 24 L	-2.31	45.2% / 50.0%	12.9% / 11.5%	3.7% / 0.0%	4.42 / 6.50	57.7% / 51.6%	15.4% / 25.8%	5.38 / 4.97	57 / 57	55.8% / 55.3%	50.9% / 50.9%	44.6% / 43.8%	4.86 / 5.67	0.0% / 0.0%	45.6% / 54.4%	0.00 / 0.00
7	@TB	3 – 38 L	-23.96	50.0% / 43.6%	11.1% / 0.0%	9.4% / 0.0%	4.67 / 5.79	51.7% / 67.7%	31.0% / 12.9%	4.93 / 5.87	65 / 70	60.8% / 58.9%	50.8% / 54.3%	41.0% / 51.2%	4.78 / 5.83	3.1% / 1.4%	44.6% / 44.3%	0.00 / 0.00

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	DAL	31 – 29 W	3.19	56.0% / 57.6%	0.0% / 1.7%	4.0% / 1.7%	7.58 / 6.63	64.3% / 38.9%	7.1% / 27.8%	3.71 / 3.33	64 / 77	60.4% / 54.2%	57.8% / 53.2%	38.5% / 32.0%	6.73 / 5.86	3.1% / 0.0%	21.9% / 23.4%	0.00 / 0.00
2	ATL	48 – 25 W	9.88	48.7% / 46.9%	7.7% / 2.0%	0.0% / 6.3%	6.64 / 5.98	57.1% / 30.0%	28.6% / 40.0%	3.90 / 2.75	60 / 69	57.8% / 44.0%	51.7% / 42.0%	44.1% / 35.5%	5.68 / 5.04	1.7% / 0.0%	35.0% / 29.0%	0.00 / 0.00
3	@LA	24 – 34 L	-8.05	55.2% / 56.4%	5.2% / 2.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.09 / 8.49	46.2% / 45.8%	23.1% / 29.2%	2.69 / 3.17	71 / 63	58.5% / 48.9%	53.5% / 52.4%	32.8% / 53.9%	6.28 / 6.46	0.0% / 0.0%	18.3% / 38.1%	0.00 / 0.00
4	@NE	19 – 17 W	0.20	40.9% / 54.3%	2.3% / 8.7%	0.0% / 2.4%	5.93 / 6.41	53.3% / 25.0%	23.3% / 75.0%	3.97 / -0.13	74 / 54	46.3% / 59.5%	45.9% / 50.0%	42.3% / 22.6%	5.14 / 5.44	0.0% / 1.9%	40.5% / 14.8%	0.00 / 0.00
5	MIA	45 – 17 W	9.98	68.1% / 54.8%	4.3% / 7.1%	0.0% / 2.6%	9.30 / 6.24	64.0% / 44.4%	24.0% / 22.2%	4.84 / 4.33	72 / 51	66.7% / 59.5%	66.7% / 52.9%	39.6% / 50.0%	7.75 / 5.90	0.0% / 2.0%	34.7% / 17.6%	0.00 / 0.00
6	@PHI	28 – 22 W	9.08	54.8% / 32.1%	0.0% / 7.1%	2.4% / 3.8%	7.07 / 4.04	51.6% / 52.6%	29.0% / 31.6%	3.29 / 5.26	73 / 47	54.2% / 44.1%	53.4% / 40.4%	23.1% / 60.9%	5.47 / 4.53	0.0% / 0.0%	42.5% / 40.4%	0.00 / 0.00
7	CHI	38 – 3 W	23.96	43.6% / 50.0%	0.0% / 11.1%	0.0% / 9.4%	5.79 / 4.67	67.7% / 51.7%	12.9% / 31.0%	5.87 / 4.93	70 / 65	58.9% / 60.8%	54.3% / 50.8%	51.2% / 41.0%	5.83 / 4.78	1.4% / 3.1%	44.3% / 44.6%	0.00 / 0.00

Chicago Bears @

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sun, Oct 24

1:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis