Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Chicago (+9) over NEW ORLEANS

This game features two teams succeeding with drastically different styles. Bears games are averaging the fourth-least yards per play this season while Saints games are averaging the fourth-highest combined yppl. Chicago gains just 56% of their yards from passing while the New Orleans passing offense accounts for 69% of their yards.

The Bears 7th-ranked ground game has a good matchup this week against a Saints defense allowing 4.9 yards per rush (30th) and the Bears have proven that they can take advantage of a soft defensive front. Chicago combined for 356 rushing yards on nearly 4.9 yards per carry in the two games in which they faced teams in the bottom third of the league in rush defense (Atlanta and Baltimore) and New Orleans’ run defense is considering worse than both of those teams. I expect Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen to have success in this game, which will take some pressure off of rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky.

The Saints will also need to rely on their rushing attack on Sunday. Since the week 3 return of top cornerback, Prince Amukamara, Chicago’s pass defense ranks 6th in my pass defense ratings and that unit has been improving as the season has progressed – the Bears have held their opponents to a combined 4.6 yppp the last 3 weeks. New Orleans rushing offense ranks 6th in my metrics and I expect them to find some holes against an average Chicago rush defense, but the Bears should have enough ground success of their own while limiting the Saints’ aerial attack to keep this game close.

Team Stats
Game Log

Bears
Saints

CHI

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 29.6 36.4
Succ Pass Plays 34.8% 43.7%
Sack Rate 11.7% 8.2%
Int Rate 2.7% 1.5%
Deep Pass Rate 20.4% 16.8%
Big Pass Yards 33.5% 31.1%
NYPP 5.5 5.5

Rush

Rush Plays 31.1 27.1
RB YPR 3.9 3.6
Stuff Rate 24.9% 17.1%
Succ Rush Plays 40.7% 42.3%
Big Rush Yards 35.6% 33.6%
Yards Per Rush 3.9 3.9

Game

All Snaps 60.7 63.6
Early Down Succ 42.3% 43.6%
Succ Rate 39.4% 42.3%
Big Yards Rate 37.4% 35.1%
Yards Per Play 4.7 4.8
Fumble Lost Rate 1.8% 1.1%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.9 29.7
Run Ratio 51.7% 42.6%
Starting Field Pos 28.4 29.3
Game Control -2.6 2.6

Points 17.4 21.6

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	ATL	17 – 23 L	-2.5	31.8% / 50.0%	9.1% / 6.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.0 / 9.6	52.6% / 32.0%	15.8% / 24.0%	6.6 / 2.6	63 / 57	37.5% / 45.2%	38.1% / 42.1%	31.2% / 49.7%	4.8 / 6.6	0.0% / 0.0%	30.2% / 43.9%	28.1 / 18.3
2	@TB	7 – 29 L	-18.1	56.5% / 48.5%	2.2% / 6.1%	4.4% / 0.0%	6.3 / 5.9	25.0% / 36.1%	43.8% / 11.1%	1.3 / 3.3	62 / 69	50.0% / 41.2%	48.4% / 42.0%	6.5% / 14.4%	5.0 / 4.5	3.2% / 1.4%	25.8% / 52.2%	27.0 / 31.1
3	PIT	23 – 17 W	4.4	33.3% / 47.6%	8.3% / 7.1%	4.5% / 0.0%	3.5 / 5.0	44.7% / 64.7%	28.9% / 5.9%	5.8 / 4.1	62 / 59	42.0% / 56.3%	40.3% / 52.5%	55.3% / 29.4%	4.9 / 4.8	1.6% / 3.4%	61.3% / 28.8%	32.7 / 36.4
4	@GB	14 – 35 L	-16.9	38.2% / 41.4%	2.9% / 6.9%	6.1% / 0.0%	6.0 / 5.8	40.0% / 48.0%	26.7% / 4.0%	3.4 / 3.7	64 / 54	36.0% / 43.2%	39.1% / 44.4%	25.6% / 50.6%	4.8 / 4.8	3.1% / 0.0%	46.9% / 46.3%	28.5 / 33.5
5	MIN	17 – 20 L	-0.9	37.0% / 50.0%	3.7% / 11.1%	3.8% / 0.0%	5.9 / 3.9	48.3% / 35.5%	13.8% / 25.8%	4.0 / 5.1	56 / 67	46.5% / 44.2%	42.9% / 43.3%	34.7% / 30.3%	4.9 / 4.5	1.8% / 0.0%	51.8% / 46.3%	26.6 / 30.9
6	@BAL	27 – 24 W	4.4	28.6% / 27.3%	19.0% / 6.8%	0.0% / 4.9%	5.3 / 3.8	41.8% / 46.2%	29.1% / 15.4%	4.2 / 4.8	76 / 70	42.1% / 37.3%	38.2% / 34.3%	41.1% / 21.6%	4.5 / 4.2	2.6% / 1.4%	72.4% / 37.1%	27.6 / 29.9
7	CAR	17 – 3 W	11.4	18.2% / 41.0%	36.4% / 12.8%	0.0% / 5.9%	7.7 / 4.7	32.3% / 33.3%	16.1% / 33.3%	2.3 / 3.6	42 / 69	41.7% / 37.7%	28.6% / 37.7%	67.3% / 49.8%	3.7 / 4.2	0.0% / 1.4%	73.8% / 43.5%	28.7 / 24.6

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@MIN	19 – 29 L	-6.6	60.5% / 63.6%	2.6% / 3.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.5 / 10.3	28.6% / 27.3%	14.3% / 33.3%	2.9 / 4.0	59 / 66	52.1% / 44.7%	49.2% / 45.5%	29.9% / 68.0%	5.8 / 7.2	0.0% / 0.0%	35.6% / 50.0%	22.4 / 24.9
2	NE	20 – 36 L	-14.2	51.1% / 61.0%	2.2% / 4.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.7 / 10.6	47.1% / 51.6%	11.8% / 22.6%	4.8 / 3.8	62 / 72	54.2% / 58.3%	50.0% / 56.9%	48.3% / 53.2%	6.9 / 7.7	0.0% / 0.0%	27.4% / 43.1%	27.9 / 27.5
3	@CAR	34 – 13 W	8.6	46.7% / 43.2%	3.3% / 10.8%	0.0% / 9.1%	7.1 / 4.2	55.6% / 77.3%	25.9% / 4.5%	5.5 / 6.0	57 / 59	51.1% / 57.8%	50.9% / 55.9%	55.5% / 40.3%	6.4 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	47.4% / 37.3%	37.8 / 25.2
4	@MIA	20 – 0 W	5.5	48.8% / 37.5%	2.4% / 12.5%	0.0% / 3.6%	6.4 / 4.0	46.4% / 60.0%	14.3% / 40.0%	3.1 / 3.9	69 / 47	46.3% / 52.6%	47.8% / 44.7%	46.1% / 31.7%	5.0 / 4.0	0.0% / 0.0%	40.6% / 31.9%	28.8 / 27.0
6	DET	52 – 38 W	15.8	45.2% / 35.1%	0.0% / 8.8%	6.5% / 5.8%	6.0 / 4.9	45.9% / 15.8%	13.5% / 36.8%	5.2 / 3.5	68 / 76	50.9% / 24.6%	45.6% / 30.3%	51.7% / 53.3%	5.6 / 4.6	1.5% / 2.6%	54.4% / 25.0%	29.4 / 27.6
7	@GB	26 – 17 W	-2.5	59.0% / 23.1%	2.6% / 3.8%	5.3% / 4.0%	8.3 / 3.0	53.8% / 70.8%	12.8% / 16.7%	4.2 / 7.5	78 / 50	61.4% / 48.7%	56.4% / 46.0%	49.2% / 45.4%	6.3 / 5.2	0.0% / 0.0%	50.0% / 48.0%	30.1 / 18.2

Chicago Bears @

New Orleans Saints

Sun, Oct 29

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis