Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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MINNESOTA (-4.5) vs Chicago

This game is not a straightforward handicap. Matt Nagy intends to play his starters as Chicago still in play for a first-round bye with a win and a Rams loss. However, the Bears could rest their starters in the second half if the Rams have their game against the 49ers under control. Meanwhile, Minnesota needs a win or an Eagles loss to make the playoffs. Further complicating matters, these two teams will meet in Chicago during the wild-card round next week if the Rams do indeed take care of business at home and the Vikings win, thus incentivizing Chicago to use a vanilla game-plan or even deceptively non-optimal play calls.

We are going to pass and there will likely be a more-typical analysis of this matchup a week from now.

Team Stats
Game Log

Bears
Vikings

CHI

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 34.5 41.6
Succ Pass Plays 49.9% 44.4%
Sack Rate 6.1% 7.4%
Int Rate 2.8% 4.7%
Deep Pass Rate 22.3% 15.9%
Big Pass Yards 36.4% 35.8%
NYPP 6.8 5.6

Rush

Rush Plays 29.9 21.6
RB YPR 3.5 3.3
Stuff Rate 20.8% 24.7%
Succ Rush Plays 45.4% 42.0%
Big Rush Yards 37.6% 30.9%
Yards Per Rush 3.9 3.6

Game

All Snaps 64.4 63.2
Early Down Succ 51.6% 45.1%
Succ Rate 47.8% 43.6%
Big Yards Rate 39.6% 35.3%
Yards Per Play 5.4 4.9
Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.9%
Time Per Play (sec) 30.0 27.7
Run Ratio 46.5% 34.1%
Starting Field Pos 30.3 28.0
Game Control 5.8 -5.8

Points 26.5 18.2

MIN

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 39.9 34.3
Succ Pass Plays 52.1% 45.8%
Sack Rate 6.0% 9.5%
Int Rate 1.8% 2.5%
Deep Pass Rate 14.8% 18.9%
Big Pass Yards 34.0% 35.5%
NYPP 6.7 6.0

Rush

Rush Plays 23.4 27.3
RB YPR 4.0 4.0
Stuff Rate 26.8% 22.0%
Succ Rush Plays 38.5% 48.2%
Big Rush Yards 44.4% 34.0%
Yards Per Rush 4.0 4.1

Game

All Snaps 63.3 61.6
Early Down Succ 50.6% 50.9%
Succ Rate 47.4% 46.9%
Big Yards Rate 37.6% 40.1%
Yards Per Play 5.7 5.1
Fumble Lost Rate 1.1% 1.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.5 30.2
Run Ratio 37.2% 44.1%
Starting Field Pos 30.1 28.7
Game Control 0.1 -0.1

Points 23.3 21.1

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@GB	23 – 24 L	9.5	35.9% / 43.9%	10.3% / 9.8%	0.0% / 2.7%	4.0 / 7.3	59.3% / 27.8%	18.5% / 16.7%	5.1 / 3.8	66 / 59	48.9% / 40.0%	45.5% / 39.0%	38.1% / 59.5%	4.5 / 6.3	1.5% / 1.7%	40.9% / 30.5%	25.7 / 30.7
2	SEA	24 – 17 W	7.4	52.8% / 43.6%	5.6% / 15.4%	5.9% / 3.0%	5.1 / 5.2	48.3% / 45.5%	13.8% / 13.6%	3.0 / 3.4	65 / 61	55.1% / 44.9%	50.8% / 44.3%	6.3% / 23.2%	4.2 / 4.5	0.0% / 1.6%	44.6% / 36.1%	33.6 / 24.5
3	@ARI	16 – 14 W	-7.2	42.1% / 40.0%	7.9% / 13.3%	2.9% / 11.5%	5.1 / 5.6	54.8% / 33.3%	22.6% / 27.8%	3.9 / 2.9	69 / 48	50.0% / 40.5%	47.8% / 37.5%	37.7% / 58.8%	4.6 / 4.6	1.4% / 2.1%	44.9% / 37.5%	27.8 / 32.8
4	TB	48 – 10 W	27.7	66.7% / 45.2%	3.7% / 9.5%	0.0% / 7.9%	12.7 / 6.0	51.5% / 38.9%	27.3% / 22.2%	4.3 / 3.3	60 / 60	64.6% / 45.7%	58.3% / 43.3%	72.6% / 32.8%	8.1 / 5.2	0.0% / 0.0%	55.0% / 30.0%	27.5 / 23.8
6	@MIA	28 – 31 L	-0.3	54.5% / 48.8%	6.1% / 0.0%	3.2% / 4.7%	9.2 / 8.8	43.8% / 58.1%	9.4% / 9.7%	5.2 / 5.2	65 / 74	48.0% / 53.4%	49.2% / 52.7%	60.7% / 48.2%	7.2 / 7.3	3.1% / 1.4%	49.2% / 41.9%	25.3 / 28.7
7	NE	31 – 38 L	-3.8	43.1% / 62.2%	3.9% / 2.7%	4.1% / 2.8%	6.3 / 7.4	52.0% / 63.0%	12.0% / 22.2%	5.4 / 4.0	76 / 64	44.1% / 66.0%	46.1% / 62.5%	44.6% / 29.7%	6.0 / 6.0	0.0% / 3.1%	32.9% / 42.2%	32.9 / 25.6
8	NYJ	24 – 10 W	6.9	45.2% / 36.7%	6.5% / 3.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.0 / 5.0	52.9% / 20.8%	14.7% / 37.5%	5.3 / 2.4	65 / 54	51.9% / 30.8%	49.2% / 29.6%	46.3% / 20.3%	6.1 / 3.8	0.0% / 0.0%	52.3% / 44.4%	28.5 / 22.0
9	@BUF	41 – 9 W	18.7	42.9% / 35.8%	4.8% / 7.5%	5.0% / 6.1%	6.0 / 3.2	39.3% / 28.6%	28.6% / 42.9%	2.4 / 3.5	49 / 81	51.5% / 33.3%	40.8% / 33.3%	39.4% / 39.4%	3.9 / 3.3	0.0% / 1.2%	57.1% / 34.6%	43.9 / 25.9
10	DET	34 – 22 W	15.7	58.1% / 43.8%	3.2% / 12.5%	0.0% / 4.8%	11.2 / 4.8	31.8% / 54.2%	36.4% / 29.2%	2.5 / 3.2	53 / 72	48.8% / 50.0%	47.2% / 47.2%	66.7% / 25.9%	7.6 / 4.2	0.0% / 1.4%	41.5% / 33.3%	33.4 / 28.8
11	MIN	25 – 20 W	8.4	50.0% / 54.2%	3.1% / 4.2%	6.5% / 4.3%	5.0 / 5.1	45.2% / 28.6%	21.4% / 50.0%	3.6 / 1.6	74 / 62	51.8% / 49.0%	47.3% / 48.4%	20.6% / 9.3%	4.2 / 4.3	1.4% / 1.6%	56.8% / 22.6%	26.9 / 34.1
12	@DET	23 – 16 W	0.5	50.0% / 47.5%	9.5% / 5.0%	0.0% / 5.3%	5.4 / 5.6	31.3% / 58.3%	25.0% / 4.2%	2.4 / 4.6	58 / 64	51.1% / 56.3%	44.8% / 51.6%	24.5% / 27.9%	4.6 / 5.2	1.7% / 0.0%	27.6% / 37.5%	27.2 / 27.1
13	@NYG	27 – 30 L	-4.0	44.4% / 41.0%	11.1% / 7.7%	5.0% / 2.8%	5.7 / 5.1	37.5% / 31.0%	34.4% / 27.6%	3.7 / 4.9	77 / 68	45.6% / 34.7%	41.6% / 36.8%	50.3% / 42.9%	4.9 / 5.0	1.3% / 0.0%	41.6% / 42.6%	25.1 / 31.4
14	LA	15 – 6 W	2.4	38.7% / 35.4%	3.2% / 6.3%	10.0% / 8.9%	3.2 / 3.4	43.2% / 53.8%	8.1% / 30.8%	5.3 / 4.0	68 / 61	42.9% / 43.5%	41.2% / 39.3%	38.2% / 28.0%	4.4 / 3.5	0.0% / 0.0%	54.4% / 21.3%	36.3 / 29.1
15	GB	24 – 17 W	5.3	58.6% / 44.7%	3.4% / 10.6%	0.0% / 2.4%	8.0 / 5.0	36.7% / 42.1%	26.7% / 15.8%	3.3 / 4.6	59 / 66	54.3% / 45.1%	47.5% / 43.9%	27.0% / 41.8%	5.6 / 4.9	1.7% / 0.0%	50.8% / 28.8%	36.0 / 26.1
16	@SF	14 – 9 W	0.7	65.6% / 43.6%	9.4% / 2.6%	0.0% / 2.6%	7.3 / 5.9	53.3% / 46.7%	13.3% / 20.0%	3.1 / 3.1	62 / 54	65.2% / 43.6%	59.7% / 44.4%	21.1% / 41.6%	5.3 / 5.2	3.2% / 0.0%	48.4% / 27.8%	24.2 / 29.7

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	SF	24 – 16 W	7.6	43.6% / 38.9%	7.7% / 8.3%	0.0% / 9.1%	5.8 / 6.6	40.6% / 44.0%	21.9% / 32.0%	3.6 / 3.6	71 / 61	43.4% / 41.7%	42.3% / 41.0%	24.5% / 60.9%	4.8 / 5.4	1.4% / 1.6%	45.1% / 41.0%	33.3 / 23.1
2	@GB	29 – 29 T	-6.3	56.0% / 48.9%	4.0% / 8.9%	2.1% / 0.0%	8.2 / 5.6	44.4% / 54.2%	5.6% / 25.0%	3.8 / 4.1	68 / 69	53.7% / 55.4%	52.9% / 50.7%	44.4% / 31.3%	7.1 / 5.1	0.0% / 0.0%	26.5% / 34.8%	26.5 / 29.9
3	BUF	6 – 27 L	-22.0	47.5% / 40.0%	6.8% / 12.0%	1.8% / 0.0%	4.7 / 6.6	16.7% / 42.1%	50.0% / 23.7%	2.3 / 3.4	65 / 63	48.0% / 42.9%	44.6% / 41.3%	3.8% / 42.1%	4.5 / 4.6	3.1% / 0.0%	9.2% / 60.3%	17.7 / 40.2
4	@LA	31 – 38 L	-3.9	51.9% / 60.0%	7.4% / 2.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.3 / 13.0	35.3% / 57.1%	35.3% / 14.3%	3.2 / 4.8	71 / 56	45.3% / 68.1%	47.9% / 58.9%	38.8% / 55.7%	6.3 / 9.9	1.4% / 0.0%	23.9% / 37.5%	27.2 / 26.6
5	@PHI	23 – 21 W	7.0	74.2% / 80.8%	3.2% / 11.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.6 / 10.9	44.0% / 58.8%	20.0% / 11.8%	3.2 / 4.8	56 / 43	62.5% / 63.6%	60.7% / 72.1%	48.8% / 51.9%	6.7 / 8.5	1.8% / 4.7%	44.6% / 39.5%	27.0 / 30.9
6	ARI	27 – 17 W	8.0	54.1% / 37.1%	10.8% / 11.4%	3.0% / 3.2%	5.8 / 5.9	42.4% / 40.0%	18.2% / 30.0%	5.9 / 3.1	70 / 55	54.7% / 48.8%	48.6% / 38.2%	31.3% / 41.3%	5.9 / 4.9	1.4% / 1.8%	47.1% / 36.4%	30.9 / 25.5
7	@NYJ	37 – 17 W	7.4	34.1% / 26.7%	2.4% / 6.7%	0.0% / 7.1%	5.6 / 4.3	24.0% / 37.5%	44.0% / 33.3%	3.6 / 3.0	66 / 69	35.4% / 33.3%	30.3% / 30.4%	58.0% / 50.2%	4.8 / 3.8	0.0% / 1.4%	37.9% / 34.8%	41.4 / 27.3
8	NO	20 – 30 L	-5.9	56.8% / 62.5%	9.1% / 0.0%	2.5% / 4.2%	7.7 / 6.8	40.9% / 48.3%	31.8% / 13.8%	3.9 / 3.7	66 / 53	50.9% / 56.8%	51.5% / 54.7%	40.2% / 34.1%	6.4 / 5.1	1.5% / 0.0%	33.3% / 54.7%	21.6 / 38.3
9	DET	24 – 9 W	8.8	56.5% / 39.1%	4.3% / 21.7%	4.5% / 0.0%	6.7 / 3.1	43.5% / 40.0%	26.1% / 16.0%	5.6 / 2.7	46 / 71	51.4% / 41.2%	50.0% / 39.4%	41.0% / 0.0%	6.2 / 3.0	2.2% / 1.4%	50.0% / 35.2%	32.6 / 21.7
11	@CHI	20 – 25 L	-8.4	54.2% / 50.0%	4.2% / 3.1%	4.3% / 6.5%	5.1 / 5.0	28.6% / 45.2%	50.0% / 21.4%	1.6 / 3.6	62 / 74	49.0% / 51.8%	48.4% / 47.3%	9.3% / 20.6%	4.3 / 4.2	1.6% / 1.4%	22.6% / 56.8%	34.1 / 26.9
12	GB	24 – 17 W	1.9	64.1% / 46.9%	5.1% / 12.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.3 / 5.4	29.0% / 52.6%	19.4% / 15.8%	3.0 / 4.3	70 / 51	52.9% / 57.5%	48.6% / 49.0%	42.1% / 37.4%	6.0 / 5.0	0.0% / 2.0%	44.3% / 37.3%	35.6 / 26.6
13	@NE	10 – 24 L	-6.9	43.5% / 68.8%	4.3% / 0.0%	4.5% / 3.1%	4.0 / 9.7	53.8% / 61.5%	15.4% / 10.3%	7.3 / 4.1	59 / 71	51.1% / 69.1%	45.8% / 64.8%	41.4% / 42.4%	4.7 / 6.6	0.0% / 0.0%	22.0% / 54.9%	26.7 / 33.5
14	@SEA	7 – 21 L	-3.5	45.7% / 31.8%	5.7% / 9.1%	0.0% / 5.0%	5.7 / 2.7	45.5% / 56.8%	18.2% / 18.2%	3.5 / 4.9	57 / 66	55.8% / 56.0%	45.6% / 48.5%	39.4% / 36.6%	4.9 / 4.2	1.8% / 0.0%	38.6% / 66.7%	24.8 / 26.2
15	MIA	41 – 17 W	13.1	52.2% / 21.2%	8.7% / 27.3%	4.8% / 0.0%	8.6 / 1.1	52.4% / 45.0%	14.3% / 25.0%	5.3 / 7.8	65 / 53	59.2% / 36.8%	52.3% / 30.2%	57.9% / 64.2%	6.5 / 3.6	0.0% / 0.0%	64.6% / 37.7%	39.4 / 25.2
16	@DET	27 – 9 W	3.8	46.7% / 34.8%	6.7% / 6.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.0 / 3.0	35.7% / 39.1%	32.1% / 39.1%	3.6 / 3.7	58 / 69	45.5% / 40.0%	41.4% / 36.2%	43.5% / 33.2%	5.9 / 3.2	0.0% / 0.0%	48.3% / 33.3%	33.3 / 28.0

Chicago Bears @

Minnesota Vikings

Sun, Dec 30

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis