Game Analysis

Lean – Under (46) – GREEN BAY (-2.5) vs Chicago

· It is win and in the playoffs for Green Bay after beating Minnesota on New Year’s Eve. The Packers had a 50.0% pressure rate last week and I expect the pass rush to get after Justin Fields on Sunday.

· Bears right tackle Darnell Wright has surrendered 50 pressures (4th-most) and the rookie will struggle across from edge defender Rashan Gary, who ranks 8th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Chicago is 5-2 since week 10 but Fields is not the reason for the mid-season turnaround. The Bears have had a 38.7% success rate on offense since week 10 (28th) while Chicago’s defense has conceding a league-low 37.6% success rate in the span.

· The Bears are targeting running backs on 22.6% of passes (8th-most) and the screen game has a favorable matchup versus Green Bay’s defense allowing 0.07 EPA/target to running backs (26th).

· The Packers are surrendering a 59% success rate to tight ends (28th) and there will be gaps in the seam for TE Cole Kmet, who is averaging 0.34 EPA/target (4th).

· Chicago’s defense is allowing -0.18 EPA/rush (4th) and they will contain Green Bay’s ground game with a 41.0% rush success rate (9th).

· Jordan Love’s yards per attempt versus zone coverage is 37% more than his yards per attempt against man (4th-largest gap) and he has a favorable matchup as the Bears have an 82.1% zone rate (9th-highest).

· Furthermore, Love will go against Chicago’s secondary without CB Jaylon Johnson, who is allowing a league-low 0.38 yards per cover snap. Johnson is worth 1.5 points by our metrics.

· Packers RT RT Zach Tom ranks 14th in pass-blocking efficiency and he will contain edge rusher Montez Sweat, who has 12.5 sacks (10th).

· Our model makes Green Bay a 3.9-point favorite, with a predicted total of 42.6 points.