Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Chicago Team Total Under (17 -110) or (17.5 -130)

Alternate play, if you don’t have team totals, is Cleveland (-2.5 -120)

Lean – CLEVELAND (-2.5 -120) over Chicago

· Two of Cleveland’s three highest neutral game pass-play rates have come in the last two games with Joe Flacco, who had 46 dropbacks each against the Rams and Jaguars.

· Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski trusts the veteran and Flacco has rewarded him. Cleveland’s offense is averaging 5.0 yppl with Flacco under center, which is almost as much as the 5.1 yppl they averaged with Deshaun Watson on the field.

· Flacco has only a 1.0% PFF turnover-worthy throw rate and that is the lowest of any of Cleveland’s four quarterbacks this season.

· Stefanksi and Flacco are playing with fire with a high pass rate as the Browns’ offensive line has been without both starting tackles and backup T Dawand Jones, who ranked 17th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Cleveland’s 3rd string RT James Hudson is surrendering a 9.3% pressure rate, and he will struggle against edge defender Montez Sweat, who has 10.0 sacks (12th).

· Furthermore, Browns center Ethan Pocic is likely out for this game, and he ranks 4th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Cleveland’s offense targets tight ends on 26.3% of passes (6th-most) but TE David Njoku will be contained as Chicago’s defense is allowing just 0.08 EPA/target to tight ends (5th).

· Bears CB Jaylon Johnson is allowing a league-low 0.40 yards per cover snap and he will limit WR Amari Cooper, who leads Cleveland’s offense with 105 targets.

· Stefanski will see the rain, offensive line, and matchup as a reason to dial back the passing attack.

· Justin Fields is averaging 10.0 designed rushes per game since returning from injury in week 11. Fields was averaging just 5.0 designed rushes per game in the first 6 weeks. Offensive coordinator Luke Getsy is going to heavily use the run game in wet conditions.

· Bears wide receiver DJ Moore is averaging 0.45 EPA/target (9th) and there could be room for him downfield. Browns S Grant Delpit left last game early in the fourth quarter with a groin injury and Cleveland’s defense was already down Juan Thornhill as the other starting safety. However, there are high winds expected at Cleveland Browns Stadium and the lack of safeties might not be as much of a factor.

· Chicago applies to a 70-141-5 ATS road letdown situation based on their back to back wins and a 5-36-1 ATS situation based on last week’s home dog win.

· Our model favors the Browns by 2.9 points, with a predicted total of 34.5 points, but the situation favors Cleveland. The Chicago Team Total is a better play than the Cleveland side in my opinion.

Chicago Team Total Under is a Strong Opinion – Under 17 up to -125 odds and Under 17.5 up to -145 odds.