Game Analysis
The big story from the game will be cover man Josh Norman lining up to play his former team. The Panthers pass defense has fallen to the 16th ranked unit after ranking third last year as the secondary now starts a pair of rookies after losing key starters, including Norman this season. This is all great news for contract-year QB Kirk Cousins. Not that Captain ‘you like that’ Kirk needs help earning a new paycheck, as he has been incredible this year, averaging 7.8 NYPP and ranking 2nd amongst QBs through 14 weeks. In aggregate, the Redskins arguably have the best offense in the NFL averaging 6.4 yards per play. While they have averaged 25.4 points per game, their run-rate scoring average should actually be 3 points higher based on predictive stats. The advanced stats model shows value on the home favorite and Over, so WASHINGTON (-4.5) and OVER (51) are Strong Opinions.
Note: The line on this game has moved to Washington -6.5/-7 and we no long have an opinion on the side.
NFL Best Bets 87-62 (58.4%) – 58-25 (69.9%) on NFL Sides
Week 15 NFL Best Bets were 8-4 (4-2 sides, 4-2 totals) for +3.6 units while the Strong Opinions are 1-4 (1-3 sides, 0-1 totals) with two pending on the Monday night game.
The wins were on Seattle -15, Indy +4, New Orleans +2.5, Tampa Bay +7, Seattle Under 38.5, Minnesota Under 45.5, Arizona Over 50, and Atlanta Over 51.5. The losses were Baltimore -5.5, Houston -5, Dallas Over 46.5, and San Diego Over 49.5.
NFL Best Bets are now 87-62 (58.4%) for the season (58-25 on sides and 29-37 on totals). NFL Strong Opinions are now 51-42-4 (54.8%) for the season (21-25-3 sides and 30-17-1 totals).
The final 6 weeks of NFL Best Bets and Strong Opinions are just $345 and you can bundle that with the Bowl game analysis for just $425. Details on the Best Bets Subscriptions page.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.6
41.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
42.9%
49.0%
-
Sack Rate
5.9%
7.3%
-
Int Rate
3.1%
3.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.6%
16.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.4%
35.8%
-
NYPP
6.4
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.3
25.4
-
RB YPR
3.6
3.6
-
Stuff Rate
23.2%
24.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.8%
40.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
40.9%
38.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
64.9
66.6
-
Early Down Succ
45.0%
48.5%
-
Succ Rate
44.0%
45.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.5%
38.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.2%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.5
26.4
-
Run Ratio
43.6%
38.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.4
26.9
-
Game Control
1.3
-1.3
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.3
39.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
52.9%
50.7%
-
Sack Rate
4.0%
6.9%
-
Int Rate
1.9%
1.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.9%
14.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
44.5%
37.2%
-
NYPP
7.8
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.2
25.5
-
RB YPR
4.3
4.3
-
Stuff Rate
18.3%
21.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.7%
52.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.5%
44.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
4.5
Game
-
All Snaps
64.5
65.3
-
Early Down Succ
53.8%
52.8%
-
Succ Rate
51.0%
51.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
46.2%
40.6%
-
Yards Per Play
6.4
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.6
28.1
-
Run Ratio
39.2%
39.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.7
27.0
-
Game Control
-0.7
0.7
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@DEN |
20 – 21 L |
4.1 |
41.2% /
50.0% |
8.8% /
7.1% |
3.2% /
7.7% |
5.2 /
5.7 |
68.8% /
45.2% |
9.4% /
19.4% |
4.9 /
4.8 |
66 /
59 |
52.9% /
50.0% |
54.5% /
47.5% |
12.9% /
54.7% |
5.0 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
48.5% /
52.5% |
26.3 /
28.9 |
| 2 |
SF |
46 – 27 W |
7.8 |
47.5% /
39.5% |
2.5% /
5.3% |
2.6% /
5.6% |
8.8 /
6.2 |
40.5% /
34.6% |
24.3% /
26.9% |
4.8 /
2.5 |
77 /
64 |
43.5% /
41.7% |
44.2% /
37.5% |
55.6% /
46.7% |
6.9 /
4.7 |
3.9% /
1.6% |
48.1% /
40.6% |
31.8 /
33.9 |
| 3 |
MIN |
10 – 22 L |
-0.7 |
34.1% /
43.3% |
18.2% /
6.7% |
8.3% /
0.0% |
4.6 /
5.1 |
46.4% /
30.8% |
7.1% /
34.6% |
3.8 /
2.3 |
72 /
56 |
41.5% /
45.0% |
38.9% /
37.5% |
41.5% /
6.6% |
4.3 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.9% /
46.4% |
24.0 /
29.9 |
| 4 |
@ATL |
33 – 48 L |
-11.4 |
53.1% /
57.5% |
2.0% /
7.5% |
4.2% /
2.7% |
6.7 /
12.0 |
46.7% /
37.0% |
26.7% /
33.3% |
3.3 /
3.4 |
64 /
67 |
53.2% /
50.0% |
51.6% /
49.3% |
36.0% /
63.0% |
5.9 /
8.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
23.4% /
40.3% |
23.9 /
20.9 |
| 5 |
TB |
14 – 17 L |
-1.6 |
64.3% /
53.1% |
0.0% /
6.3% |
7.1% /
0.0% |
9.9 /
6.3 |
68.0% /
36.8% |
12.0% /
28.9% |
5.4 /
3.0 |
53 /
70 |
72.7% /
47.2% |
66.0% /
44.3% |
52.9% /
31.3% |
7.8 /
4.5 |
3.8% /
0.0% |
47.2% /
54.3% |
23.9 /
31.1 |
| 6 |
@NO |
38 – 41 L |
-11.3 |
49.0% /
61.2% |
4.1% /
2.0% |
2.1% /
2.1% |
6.2 /
9.4 |
50.0% /
47.6% |
10.7% /
19.0% |
3.7 /
3.0 |
77 /
70 |
54.0% /
58.5% |
49.4% /
57.1% |
18.9% /
51.4% |
5.3 /
7.5 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
36.4% /
30.0% |
32.8 /
21.9 |
| 8 |
ARI |
30 – 20 W |
15.7 |
42.9% /
51.9% |
3.6% /
14.8% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
7.4 /
5.9 |
52.8% /
50.0% |
22.2% /
40.0% |
3.9 /
2.4 |
64 /
64 |
50.0% /
54.9% |
48.4% /
51.6% |
48.1% /
12.4% |
5.5 /
5.3 |
1.6% /
1.6% |
56.3% /
15.6% |
34.1 /
24.0 |
| 9 |
@LA |
13 – 10 W |
6.2 |
43.2% /
44.0% |
13.5% /
8.0% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
5.0 /
5.6 |
23.1% /
35.3% |
34.6% /
17.6% |
2.3 /
3.5 |
63 /
67 |
34.8% /
44.0% |
34.9% /
41.8% |
28.2% /
32.7% |
3.9 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.3% /
25.4% |
28.5 /
23.4 |
| 10 |
KC |
17 – 20 L |
7.9 |
47.5% /
36.6% |
5.0% /
7.3% |
2.6% /
2.6% |
6.1 /
4.0 |
36.7% /
45.0% |
26.7% /
10.0% |
3.3 /
4.6 |
70 /
61 |
43.4% /
43.8% |
42.9% /
39.3% |
29.8% /
24.2% |
4.9 /
4.2 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
42.9% /
32.8% |
20.3 /
30.6 |
| 11 |
NO |
23 – 20 W |
8.6 |
37.1% /
55.3% |
5.7% /
6.4% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
4.9 /
5.6 |
29.6% /
42.3% |
44.4% /
19.2% |
1.9 /
4.2 |
62 /
73 |
31.1% /
55.4% |
33.9% /
50.7% |
42.6% /
29.0% |
3.6 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
43.5% /
35.6% |
36.8 /
23.4 |
| 12 |
@OAK |
32 – 35 L |
-3.9 |
33.3% /
56.1% |
6.7% /
4.9% |
3.6% /
2.6% |
7.6 /
7.6 |
40.0% /
30.8% |
24.0% /
15.4% |
5.2 /
1.5 |
55 /
80 |
37.8% /
50.0% |
36.4% /
43.8% |
62.3% /
36.8% |
6.5 /
4.6 |
1.8% /
1.3% |
45.5% /
48.8% |
26.8 /
30.9 |
| 13 |
@SEA |
7 – 40 L |
-17.3 |
30.3% /
52.4% |
0.0% /
7.1% |
3.0% /
2.6% |
5.5 /
7.0 |
42.9% /
44.8% |
33.3% /
27.6% |
4.2 /
8.3 |
54 /
71 |
34.1% /
50.0% |
35.2% /
49.3% |
51.3% /
62.5% |
5.0 /
7.5 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
38.9% /
40.8% |
30.5 /
29.5 |
| 14 |
SD |
28 – 16 W |
12.7 |
34.5% /
36.4% |
6.9% /
11.4% |
3.7% /
7.7% |
5.0 /
5.0 |
36.8% /
45.0% |
26.3% /
25.0% |
3.3 /
2.9 |
67 /
64 |
35.3% /
40.0% |
35.8% /
39.1% |
46.3% /
49.3% |
4.1 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
3.1% |
56.7% /
31.3% |
43.0 /
20.6 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
PIT |
16 – 38 L |
-6.2 |
48.8% /
60.5% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
4.7% /
2.7% |
7.7 /
7.6 |
58.3% /
65.6% |
25.0% /
12.5% |
4.6 /
4.6 |
55 /
70 |
58.1% /
64.7% |
50.9% /
62.9% |
25.0% /
59.2% |
7.0 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
21.8% /
45.7% |
30.1 /
27.3 |
| 2 |
DAL |
23 – 27 L |
-1.7 |
51.1% /
52.9% |
4.3% /
11.8% |
2.2% /
0.0% |
7.4 /
8.2 |
58.8% /
50.0% |
17.6% /
26.7% |
4.8 /
3.4 |
64 /
64 |
56.9% /
51.0% |
53.1% /
51.6% |
49.5% /
33.4% |
6.8 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
26.6% /
46.9% |
31.0 /
27.7 |
| 3 |
@NYG |
29 – 27 W |
-3.7 |
45.9% /
52.5% |
5.4% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
5.3% |
8.5 /
8.4 |
37.5% /
47.6% |
15.6% /
19.0% |
2.9 /
5.7 |
69 /
61 |
43.8% /
51.9% |
42.0% /
50.8% |
56.0% /
47.3% |
5.9 /
7.5 |
1.4% /
1.6% |
46.4% /
34.4% |
35.9 /
28.5 |
| 4 |
CLE |
31 – 20 W |
3.5 |
56.7% /
55.0% |
10.0% /
2.5% |
3.7% /
2.6% |
5.2 /
5.4 |
61.5% /
57.1% |
23.1% /
21.4% |
5.6 /
5.8 |
56 /
68 |
60.4% /
54.5% |
58.9% /
55.9% |
45.2% /
27.6% |
5.4 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
2.9% |
46.4% /
41.2% |
31.9 /
27.6 |
| 5 |
@BAL |
16 – 10 W |
-0.1 |
61.0% /
36.0% |
2.4% /
6.0% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
3.8 |
33.3% /
57.9% |
23.8% /
31.6% |
2.9 /
6.2 |
62 /
69 |
60.9% /
49.0% |
51.6% /
42.0% |
31.8% /
24.2% |
5.0 /
4.4 |
1.6% /
1.4% |
33.9% /
27.5% |
24.5 /
26.2 |
| 6 |
PHI |
27 – 20 W |
5.8 |
41.2% /
29.6% |
0.0% /
18.5% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
7.7 /
5.4 |
47.1% /
50.0% |
26.5% /
22.7% |
6.8 /
4.3 |
68 /
49 |
43.4% /
42.9% |
44.1% /
38.8% |
63.4% /
59.2% |
7.3 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
44.9% |
20.5 /
24.0 |
| 7 |
@DET |
17 – 20 L |
-2.7 |
56.1% /
50.0% |
4.9% /
9.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.9 /
7.8 |
55.2% /
52.6% |
10.3% /
15.8% |
4.6 /
4.9 |
70 /
51 |
54.5% /
54.8% |
55.7% /
51.0% |
33.3% /
51.2% |
6.0 /
6.7 |
2.9% /
0.0% |
41.4% /
37.3% |
25.8 /
25.3 |
| 8 |
@CIN |
27 – 27 T |
-0.1 |
50.9% /
48.9% |
1.8% /
6.7% |
1.8% /
2.4% |
7.8 /
5.8 |
50.0% /
63.9% |
18.8% /
8.3% |
3.2 /
4.2 |
89 /
81 |
54.4% /
54.5% |
50.6% /
55.6% |
40.8% /
24.1% |
6.1 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
1.2% |
36.0% /
44.4% |
25.0 /
26.3 |
| 10 |
MIN |
26 – 20 W |
3.4 |
58.8% /
60.5% |
2.9% /
7.0% |
0.0% /
2.5% |
7.6 /
6.6 |
51.7% /
42.9% |
6.9% /
42.9% |
4.4 /
2.2 |
63 /
64 |
59.2% /
57.7% |
55.6% /
54.7% |
28.3% /
45.6% |
6.2 /
5.2 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
46.0% /
32.8% |
28.2 /
28.5 |
| 11 |
GB |
42 – 24 W |
5.0 |
62.5% /
47.8% |
6.3% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
11.4 /
7.4 |
40.6% /
52.6% |
15.6% /
21.1% |
4.8 /
4.4 |
64 /
65 |
51.1% /
50.0% |
51.6% /
49.2% |
60.9% /
54.2% |
8.1 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
50.0% /
29.2% |
30.5 /
22.1 |
| 12 |
@DAL |
26 – 31 L |
-8.1 |
56.6% /
64.0% |
0.0% /
4.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.5 /
7.6 |
52.6% /
50.0% |
26.3% /
8.8% |
2.9 /
4.9 |
72 /
59 |
54.5% /
64.4% |
55.6% /
55.9% |
49.5% /
40.7% |
7.0 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
26.4% /
57.6% |
22.4 /
32.7 |
| 13 |
@ARI |
23 – 31 L |
-2.5 |
46.2% /
48.9% |
5.1% /
4.3% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
6.0 |
42.1% /
40.0% |
15.8% /
28.0% |
4.6 /
3.6 |
58 /
72 |
46.7% /
41.5% |
44.8% /
45.8% |
57.5% /
43.2% |
5.8 /
5.1 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
32.8% /
34.7% |
29.5 /
30.9 |
| 14 |
@PHI |
27 – 22 W |
-1.0 |
52.2% /
52.0% |
8.7% /
8.0% |
4.8% /
2.2% |
9.9 /
5.8 |
44.0% /
46.2% |
12.0% /
23.1% |
4.4 /
3.7 |
48 /
76 |
55.6% /
49.1% |
47.9% /
50.0% |
59.8% /
17.8% |
7.0 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
52.1% /
34.2% |
24.7 /
24.4 |
Carolina Panthers
@ 
Washington Redskins